Bernanke Has ALREADY Failed

[libertad]

Quote from david666:

Actually the great economist during the Depression was Keynes. He would say this stimulus package is a waste of time. He believed the elasticity of the demand for money was close to 0 while the E of D for investment was huge. He concluded the government can do more to save the economy than the fed can. Instead of pumping more money into the economy the government should spend more/ cut taxes etc.


With the apparent failure of the stimulus keynes ideas have come roaring back. Another problem keynes pointed out is that during recessions employees are extremely resistant to pay cuts meaning unemployment sky rockets while wages stay the same (actually increased during the great depression).


Now one question being overlooked is without the stimulus would the economy be in the shape its in currently or 5 times worse? I think the stimulus kept us from diving further down...which means I'm a little relunctant to deem it a failure.

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"Change" is often not comfortable....and depends on one's objectives....

It is very difficult via the politicos to cut to the chase of what the true objectives really are....

What is clear is that the politicos portion does not work well....and needs structural change....

The pain endured today.....letting the chips fall as they may....and making the proper structural govt, changes especially taxation are crucial to a better economy and a better world....

Without a vibrant economy....the chances are dramatically reduced to make the world a better place....
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The solution is relatively simple....

"Enduring/making the required changes" is not....

But make no mistake.....structural changes are required....

 

[fhl]

Is it really that hard to tell if the stimulus worked? How about just examining whether the stated goals of the stimulus were accomplished?

The stimulus backers told us that unemployment would get to 8% if there was no stimulus.

The stimulus backers told us that disposable income would go down w/o a stimulus.

Not only wrong, but spectacularly wrong on both counts. It was a miserable failure.

When a business fails, you scrap it or go broke. When a gov't program fails, politicians make all manner of excuses and <i>increase</i> the program. That's where we're at. The proponents of the stimulus are calling for more stimulus, even though the first one was a miserable failure.

Lovely, just lovely.

 

[PragmaticIdeals]

Quote from fhl:

Is it really that hard to tell if the stimulus worked? How about just examining whether the stated goals of the stimulus were accomplished?

The stimulus backers told us that unemployment would get to 8% if there was no stimulus.

The stimulus backers told us that disposable income would go down w/o a stimulus.

Not only wrong, but spectacularly wrong on both counts. It was a miserable failure.

When a business fails, you scrap it or go broke. When a gov't program fails, politicians make all manner of excuses and <i>increase</i> the program. That's where we're at. The proponents of the stimulus are calling for more stimulus, even though the first one was a miserable failure.

Lovely, just lovely.

You're ignoring the possibility that the government had the correct idea in that the opportunity cost of no stimulus was a collapsed financial system. Direct effects like that are sometimes easy to see whereas unemployment 8 months down the line are not.

That being said, I would have rather seen the banks scrapped and a highly regulated, transparent, nationalized bank instated.

 

[fhl]

Quote from PragmaticIdeals:

You're ignoring the possibility that the government had the correct idea in that the opportunity cost of no stimulus was a collapsed financial system. Direct effects like that are sometimes easy to see whereas unemployment 8 months down the line are not.

That being said, I would have rather seen the banks scrapped and a highly regulated, transparent, nationalized bank instated.

A collapsed financial system was averted? Just how do you know this for sure? Oh, I know. The people that told you that unemployment would reach 8% w/o the stimulus said so.

Your making up things that you don't know to justify continuing something that we do know.

Sorry, no sale.

 

[PragmaticIdeals]

Quote from fhl:

A collapsed financial system was averted? Just how do you know this for sure? Oh, I know. The people that told you that unemployment would reach 8% w/o the stimulus said so.

Your making up things that you don't know to justify continuing something that we do know.

Sorry, no sale.

inference - Definition [&#301;nìfar-ans]

(n.) The act or process of deriving logical conclusions from premises known…

 

[david666]

Quote from fhl:

A collapsed financial system was averted? Just how do you know this for sure? Oh, I know. The people that told you that unemployment would reach 8% w/o the stimulus said so.

Your making up things that you don't know to justify continuing something that we do know.

Sorry, no sale.

What is clear is that the stimulus did not do what it was planned to do.


That part we agree om BUT who's to say that both sides underestimated the crisis and that without the stimulus unemployment would be 15-20 percent right now?

 

[libertad]

Quote from david666:

What is clear is that the stimulus did not do what it was planned to do.


That part we agree om BUT who's to say that both sides underestimated the crisis and that without the stimulus unemployment would be 15-20 percent right now?

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Point being that "costs" with no sustainable benefits are being produced....

ie If one keeps shipping money to Haiti.....and Haiti in turn does not create "sustaining" businesses....then in effect nothing will change.....and more funding will be endlessly sought for.....

The US needs structural changes that will allow for "sustainable enterprise".....or the plight will simply be similar to Haiti....

The levered portion has been eliminated....and this alone requires another method of creating and making available numbers that are similar or in excess....

Big number valuations need to be piled back into the total.....Valuations that "will be around" with some continual longevity as a whole....

At the moment....the US govt.. has opted for a canabalistic economy.....when it should be replacing its orchards which are rapidly being chopped down....

And how about freedom ? What happened to that ? Is this not important ?

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Here it is.....

Eliminate the IRS and BIG Govt. that is formed on the basis of the selective few.....those that can afford to pay for advertising for votes with soundbytes and bonused lawyers that dangle fruit in front of politicos....

Enough already....

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This is the age of the internet.....

An age of globalized efficiency.....better management....and turning change into the positive.....

How ?

Implement a 10% State 5% Fed C tax only....

Localized township based govt. for management purposes....

Implement a new worldwide exchange for all securities whereby all transactions are tax free.....in the name of efficiency and distribution....based on the BATS, DE models....

The valuation dollars total will dwarf the previous credit bubble canabalistic politico idiocy....

And get rid of the two party govt. lobbyist system....It is a disgusting antique....and a total insult to the integrity of the US economy....

 

[david666]

I do agree with most of your points, such as getting rid of the IRS. That is why I was a ron paul supporter.

However, you still have not been able to answer my question. Who is to say without the stimulus we wouldnt be 5 times worse? Sure things are worse but it could have been a lot worse without it..

 

[libertad]

Quote from david666:

I do agree with most of your points, such as getting rid of the IRS. That is why I was a ron paul supporter.

However, you still have not been able to answer my question. Who is to say without the stimulus we wouldnt be 5 times worse? Sure things are worse but it could have been a lot worse without it..

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Firstly all assets work at the right price....

Has anyone in govt. fully attempted to describe what would have happened exactly without intervention ?

Or is it just that politico scare tactics have been used....?


And who exactly has benefited from spent funds to date ?

Was it US citizens ?

Was it the likes of GS, BAC....the USSA of Banks ?

This is very clear....

Also what is clear is who has not benefited....

Those who saved are not getting the benefit of price adjustments.....and are in fact being taxed even more....

All that has happened to date is the support of the inefficient, unwise, politico connected enterprises.....

And in fact.....it could be argued that the govt. has only made it much worse ....by piling more debt into paying off the losers and creating nothing sustainably worthwhile.....

Japan....Japan....Japan.....

Without the useless Fed politicos....the debt to pay would be much smaller.....leaving a smaller hole to get out of....

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ie. AIG rescue bailed out who ?

ie...US far better off with Toyota ...others buying the best parts of GM.....vs Govt. Motors ?

ie....better off without those that created the problems in the first place ....?


The USSA is "over banked"....everyone knows this....

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The solution must contain "sustainable business" ....otherwise it is not a solution....

 

[tradestrong]

Quote from fhl:

A collapsed financial system was averted? Just how do you know this for sure? Oh, I know. The people that told you that unemployment would reach 8% w/o the stimulus said so.

Your making up things that you don't know to justify continuing something that we do know.

Sorry, no sale.

Actually...there absolutely was almost a complete financial collapse that would have made the great depression look like a walk in the park. People can say what they want about Bernanke, but I think the guy has done a fantastic job. We may see flat or anemic growth over the next 5 years. But I truly believe the alternative if he had not acted in the ways that he did would be another depression. Sorry...but I'm not buying into the depression theory. I believe we've averted that possibility. Now, are we going to continue in a cyclical bear market? Absolutely....but a "depression"? No way in hell.


(Best Syndication News) The Dow fell nearly 380 points on Tuesday even after the Senate passed their version of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Things could get much worse and almost did just three days after Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy last year (see the first video below).
Money Market Meltdown

On September 18th 2008, while most Americans went about their daily activities, there was a run on money market accounts that could have collapsed the world economic system. Unbeknownst to the American people, the Federal Reserve and Treasury scrambled to stop the hemorrhaging. They immediately closed down the money accounts and announced they would guarantee bank deposits up to $250,000. That was up from $100,000 previously. The quick action averted a disaster.

The very next day President Bush spoke to the nation (see video below). Looking scared, the President said “This is a pivotal moment for America’s economy… We must act now to protect our nation’s economic health from serious risk… Last night, Secretary Paulson and Chairman Bernanke and Chairman Cox met with congressional leaders of both parties—and they had a very good meeting. I appreciate the willingness of congressional leaders to confront this situation head on.”

At that time Americans did not realize what had happened and why there was an urgent need to deal with the crisis. We now know that the problem stemmed from a run on the money market accounts. “The Department of the Treasury is acting to restore confidence in a key element of America's financial system—money market mutual funds,” the President told reporters at that September news conference.

Last month, one of the congressional members revealed that there had been a run on money market accounts. Representative Paul E. Kanjorski of Pennsylvania told CSPAN that the day before the President’s news conference the world was poised for a great depression.

Congressman Kanjorski told CSPAN in January 2009 (see video below):

“On Thursday (Sept 18), at 11 in the morning the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the U.S., to the tune of $550 billion was being drawn out in the matter of an hour or two. The Treasury opened up its window to help and pumped a $105 billion in the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide. We were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn't be further panic out there.

If they had not done that, their estimation was that by 2pm that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the U.S., would have collapsed the entire economy of the U.S., and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed... It would have been the end of our economic system and our political system as we know it...

The next month on October 14th 2008 President Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced a plan to bailout the banks. Amazingly, compared to today’s swing in the stock market, the Dow hardly budged on those days in September (see chart below).

The standard coverage for FDIC insured deposits is scheduled to revert back to $100,000 on January 1st 2010. While CDs, saving / checking and some IRA accounts are guaranteed by the government, money Market and Mutual Funds were never covered by FDIC insurance.
http://www.bestsyndication.com/?q=2...ney_market_representative_kanjorski_cspan.htm