Ben Bernanke Bonds and the greenBack

Agree!

The general populous is concerned with the consensus. They make investment decisions based upon it. Definitely a factor!

Beneath all the fluff, the next consensus is gathering momentum. Identifying it, well beforehand, is what EW does. I'm just passing along what the markets are displaying as the waves unfold, and sharing that info.

For right now, the future looks inflationary. And, the economy may revisit the term: stagflation, in the near future.
 
Quote from gharghur2:

Steve,

Looks like you made a nice call!

Tony
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Thank you. I didn't think anybody noticed, even if this week ended up being a Grand Slam for me. Bonds, the US dollar and (the one I'm most proud of because of the type of analysis used) stocks:
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=960550#post960550

I noticed something that you might have noticed too. Since last September (when we started contributing to the same threads) whenever we would BOTH look in the same direction, we would both end up making a great call. I think that's pretty cool.
 
Quote from steveosborne:

Thank you. I didn't think anybody noticed, even if this week ended up being a Grand Slam for me. Bonds, the US dollar and (the one I'm most proud of because of the type of analysis used) stocks:
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=960550#post960550

I noticed something that you might have noticed too. Since last September (when we started contributing to the same threads) whenever we would BOTH look in the same direction, we would both end up making a great call. I think that's pretty cool.
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Very nice call again!
I think it's fairly signidficant when two people can draw the same conclusions using totally different approaches. Touche!
Till our next joint venture :)
 
Longer Term though...."Helicopter Ben" holds the keys with two potential scenarios that may unfold:

Scenario #1: Ben is "dumb" and quits tightening next month....equity markets roar higher...inflation begins to go wild...Dow goes to 11,800+...(hint of lower bonds, lower USD)
Ben then must reverse-course and vigorously RE-TIGHTEN LATE 2006/EARLY 2007 CAUSING A MAJOR COLLAPSE....ala newbie Greenspan in 1987 ("history tends to repeat itself")....which coincidently would be in 2007...20 years from the prior crash date.

Scenario #2: Ben is "smart" and continues to consistently tighten in small amounts....avoiding a major collapse, but causing a slow, DREADFUL decline in the US equity markets....lasting 5 years or more....with low volatility and near-zero returns for most investors. Near-retirement yuppies go into agony with lower-than-single-digit returns on IRAs/401Ks. Market Neutral Hedge Funds are swamped with new investors as they eek-out 10+% annual returns....and traditional "long-only" mutual funds begin to liquidate from massive withdrawals.
 
Quote from syswizard:

Longer Term though...."Helicopter Ben" holds the keys with two potential scenarios that may unfold:

Scenario #1: Ben is "dumb" and quits tightening next month....equity markets roar higher...inflation begins to go wild...Dow goes to 11,800+...(hint of lower bonds, lower USD)
Ben then must reverse-course and vigorously RE-TIGHTEN LATE 2006/EARLY 2007 CAUSING A MAJOR COLLAPSE....ala newbie Greenspan in 1987 ("history tends to repeat itself")....which coincidently would be in 2007...20 years from the prior crash date.

Scenario #2: Ben is "smart" and continues to consistently tighten in small amounts....avoiding a major collapse, but causing a slow, DREADFUL decline in the US equity markets....lasting 5 years or more....with low volatility and near-zero returns for most investors. Near-retirement yuppies go into agony with lower-than-single-digit returns on IRAs/401Ks. Market Neutral Hedge Funds are swamped with new investors as they eek-out 10+% annual returns....and traditional "long-only" mutual funds begin to liquidate from massive withdrawals.
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I don't think Bernake will choose scenario #1. He would not have accepted the job unless he made it known that he plans to follow scenario #2.

With Bernake's inflation targets, realize that he can raise interest rates in such a way that it lags inflation. This creates inflation in the system, which is what he wants. Nominal interest rates rise, while 'real' interest rates stay at 1-3% after inflation.

Actually, that scenario, if controlled, is probably quite good for the equity markets, will raise nominal interest rates to levels that will make cash an appealing investment, and will slowly and eventually raise the long end of the yield curve. Retirees get to hang onto their wealth for a while.

However, the flaw in this is the likelihood of SOMETHING getting away - either wage inflation from the shortage of skilled labor in the US due to demographics or some sort of international currency or debt crisis, or oil shock through iran. That's when all heck will cut loose.
 
Yes, scenario #2 looks to be in the cards from my technical perspective. Interest rates rise continuing to chase inflation. The stock market tops as cash increasingly offers less riskier returns. The 7% Bond for example will be the main competitor for stock investment dollars. Real returns fall to single digits as stagflation sets in. And, this malaise lasts through at least one, maybe two presidential terms.
 
The Dollar seems to be doing very well in its new intermediate term uptrend. In the last two days it overcame the resistance at 89.6, and now heading to the 91.4 resistance area.
 

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