Behavioral Finance

"The behavioralists have yet to come up with a coherent model that actually predicts the future rather than merely explains, with the benefit of hindsight, what the market did in the past. The big lesson is that theory doesn’t tell people how to beat the market. It doesn’t say “the money is on the table. Go after it.” Instead it says that psychology causes market prices and fundamental values to part for a long time."

http://poweradz.investopedia.com/articles/02/112502.asp

Its kinda like Jim Puplava getting on every week telling me there's irrational exuberance out there and that things are going to hell in a handbasket. Interesting observations but can I trade off it? No.

(BTW half those links posted in the first post are bad.)
 
Sorry about the broken links. I did a cut and paste from a previous post and forgot that ET abbreviates the URL's sometimes in the body of the post. Here are the correct links.
Do Investors Trade Too Much?
http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/overconf/DoInvestors.pdf
A Survey of Behavioral Finance
http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/nicholas.barberis/research/bf5b.pdf
Hank Pruden on 'Behavioral Finance' and Technical Analysis
http://www.futurespartners.com/articles/traders/pruden.html
And in regard to your quote, "The behavioralists have yet to come up with a coherent model that actually predicts the future rather than merely explains, with the benefit of hindsight, what the market did in the past.", we'd have to say that nothing accurately predicts the future. TA certainly doesn't. At least it doesn't to my mind. To my mind, all these studies are a means of seeing how investors/traders and the markets behaved in the past with the assumption that they may behave in a similar fashion going forward. Is it an exact science? Certainly not. What is in regard to the markets? There are too many variables. To me observation is one of the most powerful tools any trader can use. Probably THE most powerful and useful.
 
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