beginner help: trees or forest

G

gaidaros

dear people,

i am fairly new to trading and have managed to stay alive just due to good money management. just when i think i have figured it out, the market decides to change (which I think that puts me right in the 'sheep for sloughter' situation). Being a professional in another discipline where also skills are involved in order to survive, i realize that it will take some time before I develop the skills to survive in this arena.

Despite the various newbie threads, which I searched for help in my journey,I would like to ask for some advice:

1. how long does it take to overcome the greed/fear syndrome - i still have it for 3-4 months now. do i need winning trades or is it just a matter of changing my philosophy?

2. any good advice on articles/books on statistical distributions and nonlinear models (i think I have figured out how market profile works/ big players moving the price from one distribution to another and day traders competing against each other within the distribution).

3. it would be very welcome to find some reading material on defining the relationship between time frames and their intersection points.

4. realizing that the market is quite often random, how do you calculate probability in order to define bet size? wait for divergence signals, support resistance etc?

thanks for anyone willing to shed some light on these issues, even a vague hint towards the direction I should futher investigate.

gaidaros (donkey in greek)
 
It takes more like 3-4 years. I don't use Market Profile. Don't dismiss E-Waves. Randomness of the Market can only be mitigated by experience..
 
Quote from gaidaros:

dear people,


Despite the various newbie threads, which I searched for help in my journey,I would like to ask for some advice:


3. it would be very welcome to find some reading material on defining the relationship between time frames and their intersection points.


thanks for anyone willing to shed some light on these issues, even a vague hint towards the direction I should futher investigate.

gaidaros (donkey in greek)
More...
========================
GS;
[3]Amoung the best on non random multiple time frames;
Market Makers Edge,
Book By Joshua Lukeman. Note his multi month charts: also cool:
 
Just yakking here,

When you are at a loss to find the appropiate answers to your questions you must go face to face with the market. The market is the ultimate teacher. Write down your question and follow a stock until your question is answered.

Odd thing with me is, if you compehend how large the interent is I find myself making a very large cirlce when reading and seeking out answers. Somehow I find myself reading an article with the same thoughts a year later, then I tell myself that issue is satisfied.

Mitigate with experience, is not repeating the same mistakes over and over but trying different approaches and achieving the same results.

It is not that people won't answer your questions, as you progress you'll find an answer is more like a push in a direction rather than actual answer.

Good luck.
 
I just started reading "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas and can already notice some fallicies from the book, in your way of the thinking based on your post. I recommend you read this book, it's been very helpful for me and I'm only half way through. It will give you a different perspective on your involvment in your trading and show you that you, not the market are responsible for your trading results.
 
Quote from gaidaros:

dear people,

i am fairly new to trading and have managed to stay alive just due to good money management. just when i think i have figured it out, the market decides to change (which I think that puts me right in the 'sheep for sloughter' situation). Being a professional in another discipline where also skills are involved in order to survive, i realize that it will take some time before I develop the skills to survive in this arena.

Despite the various newbie threads, which I searched for help in my journey,I would like to ask for some advice:

1. how long does it take to overcome the greed/fear syndrome - i still have it for 3-4 months now. do i need winning trades or is it just a matter of changing my philosophy?


As you can see in the research literature, it comes with the turf for your orientation. The fact that you can see that differing market philosophies yield differing syndromes is a real breakthrough on your part. The syndrome/philosophy pairing effects deepen as a person becomes a believer in whatever path he selects.

Because the mind is involved in these proecesses it is a cummulative one way street as well. You sort of begin a process by opening a door on a givien philosophy/syndrome at the point you commit to learning (as you already have).

The succession of events that you endure or cater to is more or less irreversable in that you are building in your mind classes of things including knowledge, skills and experience.

What it takes to prevent yourself from going down a one way street that leads to a permanent exit is quite something. Personally, I am going through the end of throwing life preservers to people. It is not a good use of my time from here on out.

It is very difficult to wall out in the mind, the false starts that most people begin with. Memory is there and it does not go away. To leave a philosophy/syndrome and go to another involves being able to shift from the "safety" (familiarity) of what you think you know to a place that is largely unknown.

You are well on the way to the wrong place at this point. What you are doing is what almost all people do and your are reasoning your way there using what you believe so far to be a rational process.

This is a tough situation for any person to be in. This is why I am posting on the chance that someone else will read this and stoop and think for a moment if it is still possible for the person to do that.

2. any good advice on articles/books on statistical distributions and nonlinear models (i think I have figured out how market profile works/ big players moving the price from one distribution to another and day traders competing against each other within the distribution).

Your focus on what others do is normal. And the world is satiated with a plethora of materials on these subjects. I notice these players in the markets as well and they are unimportant to my station in life as a practitioner. I fit into neither group in any syndrome/philosophical manner except that I am identifiable on any comprehensive chart of possibilities. These two groups are not peformers in the sense of effectivenss or efficiency.

You would be best served by beginning a process of learning to make money.

3. it would be very welcome to find some reading material on defining the relationship between time frames and their intersection points.

fortunately all time frames of the markets (about 7 if arranged scientifically) all exhibit the character and operation of the markets in a way that can be construed as a common template. Having a common template, they are redundant and you can fully translate without constraint throughout the spectrum. There are no anomolies and if presumed anomolies were checked, they would be found to be statisitically insignificant once a quality regime was in force.

4. realizing that the market is quite often random, how do you calculate probability in order to define bet size? wait for divergence signals, support resistance etc?

you are stating the primary considerations of the conventional orthodoxy is a clear, crisp and concise manner (Strunk and White). Too bad.

What if the markets worked in a different manner than you believe? Hypothetically, would it be possible to entertain syndrome/philosphy that did not deal with probability, betting, divergence, support, reisitence, etc.? You work in an allied field, does that field not use what you believe the trading field uses?

thanks for anyone willing to shed some light on these issues, even a vague hint towards the direction I should futher investigate.

I suggest that you look at the markets and the financial industry. This involves just a pen and paper to compose what is going on and where you fit into it. If you were to turn to a resouse, I would suggest that it just be a narrative of how markets work and an explanation of how the interface is constructed and operates for connecting to the market to participate (Harris, "Trading and Exchanges")

gaidaros (donkey in greek)
More...

You ask four questions. I just commented on your questions.
 
From Jack
"You ask four questions. I just commented on your questions."

I smile when I see a reply from Jack. I know what this means for me. I must print out the post, get out my Jack Hershey translator.
 
Quote from gaidaros:



1. how long does it take to overcome the greed/fear syndrome - i still have it for 3-4 months now. do i need winning trades or is it just a matter of changing my philosophy?

gaidaros (donkey in greek)
More...

We are all made up of fear and greed. Its not something you get rid of.
A trader needs to embrace his/her emotions with the passion due to lovers. Understand what triggers each and every escalation of your automatic responses.

And then you can develop and use deintensifiers during your trading day.

One thing to remember is that each of us has a unique level where we allow our fear greed element to control our actions.

Just like a trader needs entry tactics, money management tactics, trade management tactics, exit tactics,book keeping tactics, and so on, one also needs to have emotional monitoring and emotional adjustment tactics.
 
Yeah in typical JH style, about four "money shots" worth of intellectual masturbation! (no worries JH I still love ya man and read all of your response)

O.P.

I'm going to give you a little zen-like answer, take it or leave it, but it applies (at least from my experience).

You are already choosing the wrong paths from which to decide just simply through the questions you pose. Another week spent reading another volume on the subject will serve you about as well as another indicator added to your list of "must watch" items.

It's good to ask questions, now the hard part is going through the necessary pain and torture to find the correct questions to ask. Ultimately, there really aren't any questions to ask, you will either come to know or not.

I know, a bunch of garbage right? Well, it's the simplest way to answer you.

If you know anything about existential philosophy, well then you have just entered the ultimate arena of its exercise....welcome to the markets, or should I say the jungle.:D :D
 
Quote from nutmeg:

From Jack
"You ask four questions. I just commented on your questions."

I smile when I see a reply from Jack. I know what this means for me. I must print out the post, get out my Jack Hershey translator.
More...

I know what it means for me. Read and learn. Take notes. See if it makes sense and is wise (which it is 99% of the time). Incorporate it into my life, as I do with other wisdom I am made aware of.
 
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