Beginner analysis (local market)

There is not a sufficiently long data stream for any of the arab regional markets so we make do with what we have. In hindsight therefore its clear that a northbound 5-wave move completed in 2006.

Monthly target = 2,530 ... (into the area of the previous 4th wave of lesser degree).

current bounce is off the 200-month moving average.

Price returning to revisit the uptrendline is a natural tendency




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Saudi Index daily

Long position (held for months and months) closed April 20, 2010 at the following day's open.

Short position opened May 5, 2010.

SHORT position continues .....

SHORT added to on June 21 or 22.

Looking to add to short for the current rally but this should be done on 60-min. realtimeframe.

Not interested in playing bearmarket rallies.

Would like to hold this position for months and months if correct.

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See how nicely fibo levels are containing Price.

A major wave violation occurred on May 25

moving average DEATH CROSS on June 28

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That is my postion. No alternates. No trying to cover all the bases. This is my power play. I'm either incredibly right and will hold the position for months or I'm wrong if the May top is taken out, in which case I'd take my loss and get drunk and the next day, review.

best of luck :) :)





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:cool:
As I have understand from your chart the it is a DZ correction wave, which started on 2006 and will continue till the basic trend line at 2500!! , there is a big debate on ether it is a ZZ or DZ here.

Note that there is no "short" in our market and all the money there is REAL :), does this make any difference!?

thanks for your feed back deadbroke, it was grate to have outside view :), i went Long at 5900 on May 2010.

will update the post soon.
 
If you wish to improve your TASI trading add volume to your charts.

Once you do that, then you can do P,V analysis.

To your illustration I have added the next 13 moves after the Present.

I did this to come to the close of the current outer fractal that is showing.

Go back to the beginning of this outer fractal to get your bearings. This is the left side of the chart. There you see a pink arrow beginning. It ends after 13 more moves of the TASI.


You may be able to see three line weights on the chart. Call them fine medium and coarse. Most people cannot follow the markets. This is shown by the posts in this thread.

What if a person could follow the TASI and "know that he knows" its order of events? Under those circumstancs trading would be more profitable simply because the person would always be on the right side of the market and be able to TIME the profit segments.

Volume is used to time the market segments.


In this annotation there are a few wash reversals shown in green. This is indtermediate level trading.

The chart mostly illustrates beginner trading.

to understand the attached chart make a log of the beginner trades. The holds are shown by just drawing the thin line for the RTL of each segment.

A person can tab the profits as he goes along by making a log of TASI.

The first move of the outer fractal goes to 04MAY10. As you may see it is 10 trades including one wash reversal. Moat beginner traders cannot execute these 10 trades successfully simbly because they do entry/exit trades as most posters do in this thread.

To get to the Present we see there are long or short traders in this thread. One group is incorrect and one group is correct.
the second move of the outer fractal is a short long short series for the beginner. This brings the number of total trades shown to 13 on your log of this chart..

The last move of the outer fractal begins with a long and that long is still under way.

what is ahead are the following steps:

1. The long will accelerate.

2. Two sub fractal moves (M1 and M2) will lead to the end of the accelerated long.

3. ashort will begin on the fine level of anotatimg.

4. after point 3 it will accelerate.

5. Two moves M1 and M2 will handle the accelerated fine short.

6. the final long of the final medium long of the outer fractal will begin.

7. It will not accelerate but just fizzle out at the verticalpink line.

8. TASI will then begin a fairly long trm short period where the dominante modus is short in stead of the current long dominant modus.

as obsevrable at the beginning of the thread an anotation modus was proffered that got the trader in trouble because he could not handle three levels of annotating.

next some annotations were done "OUT OF CONTEXT".

either approach illustrates what it is like to NOT "know that you know" what is going on.

What is the common cause of such difficulties? It is simply the up/down orientation of all posters in this thread. You must consider this if you are going to move past it.

I do not think it is possible for mostly anyone to move past the up/down orientation.

The reason is that no one has an alternative recourse nor can anyone build an alternative recourse.

It is not enough to just continue to be incorrect while knowing you are incorrect. The test for being incorrect is feelings of anxiety, fear and even anger.

as a person goes through the process of failing to log the trade segments of thsi annotated posting, it is largely because he has a personal up/down orientation and he is not going to shake it for the foreseeable future.


how can anyone with an up/done orientation ever shake it? the first thing to do is look at the repetitive cycle of dominance in the up/down cycle orientation. Once you put it to paper you can see WHY the up/down trader is incoherence all the time. Anxiety, fear and anger are the hallmarks of incoherence. No one can learn anything while incoherent.
 

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Quote from jack hershey:



Volume is used to time the market segments.






I do not think it is possible for mostly anyone to move past the up/down orientation.

The reason is that no one has an alternative recourse nor can anyone build an alternative recourse.

It is not enough to just continue to be incorrect while knowing you are incorrect. The test for being incorrect is feelings of anxiety, fear and even anger.

as a person goes through the process of failing to log the trade segments of thsi annotated posting, it is largely because he has a personal up/down orientation and he is not going to shake it for the foreseeable future.


how can anyone with an up/done orientation ever shake it? the first thing to do is look at the repetitive cycle of dominance in the up/down cycle orientation. Once you put it to paper you can see WHY the up/down trader is incoherence all the time. Anxiety, fear and anger are the hallmarks of incoherence. No one can learn anything while incoherent.
More...

Jack, why so much pessimism? If one decides to embark on the sources available even on this site (thank you and Spyder) then everything is possible. :)

By the way, I hope you are doing well. God bless you and the Volume :) .
 

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Quote from Aziz:

:cool:

Note that there is no "short" in our market and all the money there is REAL :), does this make any difference!?
More...


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If there is no shorting, then you would have taken investor profits in March 2006, then taken the first plane out of SA and would still be on holiday in the south of France and only looking at your market once a week to gauge when the bottom would be in so you could re-invest LONG bigtime and hold for a decade or more as the next bull will be huge for Asia/Africa. :)
 
Quote from Aziz:

:cool:
i went Long at 5900 on May 2010.
More...


Good for you. :)


And you held your positions since May 2010 without trading in and out?

Please post a 60-min. chart of the Index from July 21, 2010 low.

From the data you sent me I hope you've noticed that the Index hit the 200-day mov. avg and backed down? And that there are long-term ma downside crosses.?
 
Quote from jack hershey:

If you wish to improve your TASI trading add volume to your charts.

Once you do that, then you can do P,V analysis.

snip

More...

here is a completed annotation of the first part of TASI.

Three other parts will follow.

the first charts are annotated with the points and ve's.

then just all the lines are drawn in for he later sheets. As homework you can add the points and ve's, etc.

finally you can add the points to the future annotations.

To complete the homeowrk write down on a log the order of events on the charts.

this is difficult to do the first 50 times you do a trend.
 

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