Beginner analysis (local market)

A

Aziz

Dears
I wanted to join in your forum to gain some experienc, this is the analysis of our local market after my attempts to find its waves and trend,also some forecasts are there.

I appreciate your comment and if you advise to do it in other ways to get to the most accurate forecasts.
 

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welcome to this forum and hope that you would have more information for your trade. I think you have an incredible effort in the trade when you start to do
 
Quote from Aziz:

Dears
I wanted to join in your forum to gain some experienc, this is the analysis of our local market after my attempts to find its waves and trend,also some forecasts are there.

I appreciate your comment and if you advise to do it in other ways to get to the most accurate forecasts.
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Instead of 3 and 4, it could be a 1 and 2.

Name of Index, please?

:)
 
thanks xtrader0 :)

Quote from deadbroke:

Instead of 3 and 4, it could be a 1 and 2.

Name of Index, please?

:)
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thanks deadbroke , you have a valid point here. we can put it as A (1&2) but if we know the history for this Index through the last 25 years were it did an incredible 80% correction ended only on 2009 (at 4000 points). Please view attache weekly chart since 1985.

it's TASI, Tadawul All Share Index (Saudi Arabia; stock exhange index).. Tadawul means trading in arabic.
 

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Quote from Aziz:

thanks xtrader0 :)



thanks deadbroke , you have a valid point here. we can put it as A (1&2) but if we know the history for this Index through the last 25 years were it did an incredible 80% correction ended only on 2009 (at 4000 points). Please view attache weekly chart since 1985.

it's TASI, Tadawul All Share Index (Saudi Arabia; stock exhange index).. Tadawul means trading in arabic.
More...



Your left to right uptrendline on the extreme right should help you a great deal in case the count really is a 1, 2. The last thing you need is to be expecting a rally when in fact wave 3 down gets underway. The trendline is therefore your guide.

Can you send me the raw end of day historical data from 1985 to current in a csv or excel or preferably Metastock file? I think I can at least give you a valid opinion on the condition of the index.

I tried Yahoo Finance, no Saudi Index available, only that of Israel and Egypt.

:)
 
Quote from deadbroke:

Your left to right uptrendline on the extreme right should help you a great deal in case the count really is a 1, 2. The last thing you need is to be expecting a rally when in fact wave 3 down gets underway. The trendline is therefore your guide.

Can you send me the raw end of day historical data from 1985 to current in a csv or excel or preferably Metastock file? I think I can at least give you a valid opinion on the condition of the index.

I tried Yahoo Finance, no Saudi Index available, only that of Israel and Egypt.

:)
More...

i hope the attached will show the full history of the index, i'll uplode it agine if it didnt work. (please chang its extension from .zip to .mwc>>> due to uplode restractions)

the amazing thing in the market is that some of the stocks went up 100 times in 3 years only!!(2003 to 2006).

thanks for your help :)
 

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Quote from Aziz:

why the replys are slow!?

i cannot see them right away!
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OK Aziz, thanks for the file. Had a bit of trouble with it but the conversion to Metastock looks OK.

I'll post the analysis here in the morning ( about 8-9 hrs from now)

Thanks for the data file. Much obliged. :)
 
pre-analysis past action observation ....

Saudi market a stunning example of how quickly hope changes to fear when a market tops out = 5 waves are over = get the hell out

Investors who hoped for a second chance to get out after the top, never got it as the rallies were weak.

Otherwise intelligent people held all the way down.

The Boston Globe: (excerpt from the crash of the saudi market)

"'The downturn has been disastrous for many Saudis. People collapsed in trading halls while witnessing their money evaporate. . . . Until February, the market was growing by almost 100 percent annually, leading many Saudis to predict a new boom.'"

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what a perfect example of HERD SENTIMENT in a bubble!!!!!!

Even without any esoteric TA like elliottwave, cycles, Gann et., etc., the free-as-air TRENDLINE got you with money safe. THE MAN keeps sending us messages that the simplest tools are always the best, but no, we've got to complicate things. :) :D
 
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