Before I Worry About SnP Being Overpriced

Scataphagos said:
Price TA is only partly (very small part) about "trying to time/catch the turn tic". It's more about recognizing what "has already happened, what it means, and what you should do about it."

The biggest knock on TA runs along the line, "you can't time all the turns perfectly". Agreed. But acknowledged, "timing the turn exactly" is not a requirement.
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Exactly.
Few months there or there.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/atnx-squeeze-coming.365448/
 
SoyUnGanador said:
This I can understand, it is spoke in plain English. BUT, can a trader never buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying? I thought stuff like trying to time trend reversals was a legit trading strategy. :)
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That notion has some meat on it. It's true that "at the turn", buyers on the upside are wrong, and sellers on the downside are wrong"... but that's only part of the story/argument... there are always times leading up to the turns that the chasers are correct.. for the moment.

If you're aggressive and think you're smart enough, you can aggressively fade into what you think/hope/expect to be the turn. (Of course there is an incentive for that play as "catching the turn" is where the biggest profits lie.) If you're more conservative, you can wait and "quickly chase what appears might have been the turn and is already a bit past"... applies to any time frame, any chart, any market. That's Price TA. KISS, baby! :D
 
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Sekiyo said:
Heard $LW (Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.)
Had an earnings beat. Good growth and forward guidance.

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. produces, distributes, and markets value-added frozen potato products worldwide.

That’s our new growth stocks :cool:
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Disruptive tech and competitive edge - frozen.
An impressive name - Holdings etc.
Share price over $10 - yes.
Chart looks good - yup.
And those grill bar orders from Mars (2080~), already priced in, - yes.

Great long. All in life savings.

dave-chappelle-wink.gif
 
Nobert said:
Disruptive tech and competitive edge - frozen.
An impressive name - Holdings etc.
Share price over $10 - yes.
Chart looks good - yup.
And those grill bar orders from Mars (2080~), already priced in, - yes.

Great long. All in life savings.

View attachment 296883
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For your own benefit, you need to know "Price TA". Is the public buying your conclusion? Does the chart show it? If not, maybe you're "just early", or maybe you were fooled into buying it. (Of course buying may not "show up on the first day", but you should be checking on the issue frequently.)

When someone touts, "buy this stock"... I look at the chart and see whether the play is risk/reward reasonable/possible.
 
Scataphagos said:
For your own benefit, you need to know "Price TA". Is the public buying your conclusion? Does the chart show it? If not, maybe you're "just early", or maybe you were fooled into buying it. (Of course buying may not "show up on the first day", but you should be checking on the issue frequently.)

When someone touts, "buy this stock"... I look at the chart and see whether the play is risk/reward reasonable/possible.
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Scat, that was a joke.
 
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Nobert said:
Scat, that was a joke.
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I get that... but I was trying to emphasize... "EVERYTHING A TRADER WANTS/NEEDS TO KNOW IS IN THE CHART"... nothing else matters. Whatever players want, fear, hope, expect, anticipate, etc... is reflected in their motivation to buy or sell. The chart reveals all.... whatever they buy/sell do about "net, everything".

Price TA. KISS, baby! :D

Too bad traders have such a hard time accepting this concept.
 
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Scataphagos said:
If you plan to "B&H", overpriced valuation might mean something. If you're a trader (and after all, this is a trading website), it doesn't matter one hoot. You should be buying when the market is buying and selling when the market is selling... valuations (and everything else) be DAMNED!

That's "Price TA". KISS, baby! :D
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I agree. So long as the market is open, there is opportunity. Yet even here in this realm of "elite" traders there seems to be a rather extreme long bias, even though it has never been easier for anyone to go short via a broad range of "options" including futures etc.
 
Scataphagos said:
I get that... but I was trying to emphasize... "EVERYTHING A TRADER WANTS/NEEDS TO KNOW IS IN THE CHART"... nothing else matters. Whatever players want, fear, hope, expect, anticipate, etc... is reflected in their motivation to buy or sell. The chart reveals all.... whatever they do about "net, everything".

Too bad traders have such a hard time accepting this concept.
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I thought that you're all over the place, trying to save us from getting into this potato fund that is worth $5 max.

Thanks for the help.

The post #1 is a screenshot of one member back from 2010.

The intention was to ,show' that people worried about printing as much back then as they do now, yet, they missed 200%~300% simply by DCA into SnP, which might seem a little at first, but then you find stories of members having net loss of hundreds of thousands after ~5 years, because they tried to master em options or smthn.
 
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