Beer 'n' Earnings

So, I've pulled the trigger on AAPL--Short put at $145 for 1.46.

I'm expecting a modest earnings beat, but the market is also optimistic for this. I don't see a lot of downside if they miss by a little, and it's a stock I'd like in my investment portfolio anyway.

I wouldn't call this a typical earnings play for myself, mostly because I'm happy to take the assignment on this one.

Also snagged TAP with a bull call spread over 95 to 98 for 1.15
 
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Well, AAPL is looking like a winner...I'm expecting a dip below 145 in the early minutes (which after hours and I agree), with more subdued trading later in the day. Either I win this one with a 100% winner above 145, or I win this one with some AAPL stock :D

Not sure which I prefer.

I won't count this as an earnings win either way, since it's not an earnings trade per se...but I'll count a loser to stay accountable.
 
Well, TAP's a loser, but AAPL's did exactly as expected and covered the TAP losses handily. 1.15 lost on TAP, 1.27 won on AAPL.

AIG is more optimistic than I'd like to see. I'm still bullish on it, but I don't know that I'll find an option that I like for making the trade.
 
vanzandt said:
Thats when you sell options.
More...
I usually do credit spreads...just not usually on earnings trades (AAPL above, notwithstanding, of course). The problem here is that absolute risk and statistical risk are very close. But looking at the put spread on this one. If the price keeps it's current slide going to market close, I like the $62 long call
 
AIG $62 May 5 put for 0.90. Wish the market were pessimistic for this one, but pretty confident we'll see solid numbers that will send this up.
 
AIG is looking like a winner. Expecting a spike above $64 (hopefully it'll best $65) with a trailing stop to pick up the pieces before it settles into the mid-63s
 
I'll put this here since it's relatively discrete--I just feel the need to tell someone (and don't need to breed resentment among my coworkers).

I just finished looking back over the week and doing my "damage report". There was actually a time there was no irony in the name. I'm literally shaking--I just had my best ever week of trading (both absolute and percentage wise). And this is the second consecutive week of that. Furthermore, I already have a mostly full load of positions going into next week with almost an 8% unrealized gain (I don't count unrealized gains in my damage report--just unrealized losses other than those that are the long leg of a credit spread). All told, up just more than 50% over two weeks with an 8% head start to next. That's whole-number percentages added on to my personal net worth.

There's going to be some happy people at the bar tonight--myself included. :D

As for earnings, I've got an open position on SNAP...though, not in my typical model of earnings plays. I'm also looking at AON--not in my normal stable, but in my extended one--just looking like a slow earnings week with a lot of realized gains sitting in my account. More on SNAP when we get closer.
 
So, opted against AON today, solely because of liquidity. That said, it's a pretty clear drop tomorrow. The market is very optimistic, but expected earnings are reduced from last year, and the P/E is middle of the road for the industry--but not forward P/E. Even an good earnings on this are likely to send it lower.

I didn't do my due diligence for whether I expect the earnings to be higher or lower, so we'll assume consensus. Dip under $120 on consensus, and adjusted +/- $1 for earnings +/- 0.06 respectively. Not a lot of room for surprise here, so I suspect we'll hit within that .06 range. But again, not trading this one due to insufficient liquidity. Though, the $120-125 call credit spread would have looked nice a little above the mid point (which is 2.80).
 
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