Becoming an independent trader

Quote from sf631:

At a high level, sure.

I look for structural flaws and irrationality in the market (or with other market participants) and take the other side of their trade. I find it easier to identify others' mistakes than to come up with brilliance in a vacuum. The ideas come from lots of reading of sites like ET or Seeking Alpha, or others. You probably already know that there are many, many bad ideas out there, some of which can be traded against.

I then build a system that models that behavior, keeping it very simple and always building a system around a hypothesis, not randomly changing parameters until some combination works well. Curve fitting is a huge, huge danger that must be avoided.

If you can't explain a plausible case of (1) why it works (2) who is taking the other side of your trade, and (3) what they don't understand you're just heading for trouble IMHO. Try explaining these things to your dad (or anyone else who will hear you out). If you can do this (and really believe it) there's a better chance that you'll stick with it.

Taking your Yahoo seasonality example, start with a theory about others' behavior, like a tax effect, or portfolio manager window dressing at the end of quarters, or whatever, *then* build a model to test that belief and trade the other side of it. If you "data mine", you're more likely to find a spurious pattern.

Keep in mind that I differ from most others on this thread in that I'm not day trading, not trading futures, etc...

Feel free to PM if you want to discuss further

When are you going to do the high level?
 
Quote from crazyAtrader:

I tell you what works for me, perhaps it works for you.

Study charts, all kinds of charts, static, moving, old, does not matter but mostly naked charts. Don't let crap distract you, I won't define what crap is, to avoid the crap defenders :D

Try to notice the following:

A P, V pattern that always works, requiring a small risk to attempt it, and with a potential reward that's at least 60x the required risk.

If you got that, see if the same holds true for multiple timeframes, if that holds, now you got one master pattern, the ONE needed tool for your toolset. Google "the pattern"; it has been available for a long time.

Begin searching for this pattern in all reasonable instruments. First manually, in the future, if possible, mechanically.

Once you find it, trade it with minimum cash.

Make sure you stick to the risk/reward principles of what you original found, if there is no discipline, eventually there will be no trader.

Now you can start working on your execution skills.

Stop here; you are now very rich.

Crazy A
 
Quote from Zen Student:

Bollocks, sorry. There is no "fitting to your personality" - this is papering over cracks and making excuses for your weaknesses. Fact - you can create better risk adjusted returns day trading futures than you can trying to hold positions for 2 days to 2 months. The objective is to make a million a year.

Someone who finds day trading tedious will be unlikely to put in the effort required to get to 1 million a year, whereas if they love speculating or investing then they might put in enough effort to make 1 million a year (or a lot more).

People rarely succeed at difficult endeavours without being passionately interested in them.
 
you can maybe start with stocks with short term trading for several days with a profit objective. learn the markets & develope a gameplan . you have to build a solid foundation

Once you are profitable & know you can do this full time then it warrants jumping in with both feet

if you make money trading short term you may not want to daytrade
some traders make more money short term trading then they ever would daytrading . pro/cons to both time frames

You making 200k per year now so their is no rush to jeopardise your income to see if daytrading is for you or not especially with your high expectations

It comes down to learning & knowing you can make money consistently from trading . trading is a tough businsess to be in. it's a emotional rollercoaster that you ride everyday

Most would take your 200k income not to trade. keep that in mind
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Someone who finds day trading tedious will be unlikely to put in the effort required to get to 1 million a year, whereas if they love speculating or investing then they might put in enough effort to make 1 million a year (or a lot more).

People rarely succeed at difficult endeavours without being passionately interested in them.

It would not occur to me to trade, or follow any other profession for that matter, if I did not have an interest.

This is not the same as being passionate about something, but committing to doing something brings with it the duty to do what is required, to the extent it is required - regardless of our thoughts on whether it is easy or hard, and regardless of whether we might say we have done enough when our results prove otherwise.

If you find investigation, research, problem solving, and execution tedious you would be well advised to do something else. If you are in trading you ought to make yourself rich as soon as you can. This is doing what needs to be done the most effective way you can - not messing about with self imposed fetishes, or not putting in the effort because you find it tedious.

In short, those who claim they wish to be traders but are secretly unwilling to do the work will never get there. Was there a time when most people lived their own lives to suit themselves, chose professions due to their own interest and talents (not so they could live someone elses life, make the neighbours envious or the family proud, because the media told them it was glamorous, or because they were too insecure to go it alone), and took personal pleasure in finishing what they started and performing all tasks to the absolute best of their ability? These traits seem to be the exception rather than the rule in modern times.

TL;DR - why isn't it the "norm" that we are mostly all mature and self aware enough that when one of us proposes entering a profession, others do not think to caution that we need to make sure we will put effort in, and perhaps maybe there might be a way ("investing" or non-day trading) to get the results with less work.

Do we tell aspiring doctors that actually the profession of healing is a lot of hard work, and maybe it would be better done in a country where there are less medical regulations (ie you can practice without being licensed or accredited) with worse tools and technology than you would find in the west, and if you kill a few poor patients along the way it shouldn't matter because you are unlikely to be sued or prevented from working further.

Yet nobody balks when we tell an aspiring trader that perhaps a different "style" might suit them if they are lazy, they can use less money and risk so they can carry on badly for longer, and with affordable consequences for never going anywhere.
 
Quote from jack hershey:
Quote from crazyAtrader:

I tell you what works for me, perhaps it works for you.

Study charts, all kinds of charts, static, moving, old, does not matter but mostly naked charts. Don't let crap distract you, I won't define what crap is, to avoid the crap defenders

Try to notice the following:

A P, V pattern that always works, requiring a small risk to attempt it, and with a potential reward that's at least 60x the required risk.

If you got that, see if the same holds true for multiple timeframes, if that holds, now you got one master pattern, the ONE needed tool for your toolset. Google "the pattern"; it has been available for a long time.

Begin searching for this pattern in all reasonable instruments. First manually, in the future, if possible, mechanically.

Once you find it, trade it with minimum cash.

Make sure you stick to the risk/reward principles of what you original found, if there is no discipline, eventually there will be no trader.

Now you can start working on your execution skills.

Stop here; you are now very rich.

Paddler says: No, not yet and not guaranteed. Frankly, it is just the first baby step towards the right direction in one's journey to be rich and helpful. If as you said, I would be rich in the first year instead of spending years to figure out. This is an objective opinion for those who are interested. Of course, I owe most of my trading success to you.

Crazy A
 
If you can survive not losing all your money, the next possible outcome is to make a lot of money, then lose back all your gains. It's very possible to trade and go no where at all for many years. Successful traders are rare birds who can accumulate equity. Futures, with possibility for extreme leverage, offer the fastest way to go broke.

Very easy to declare a goal of making $1 million/yr trading, but those individuals are as rare as any job that pays $1 million/yr (think CEO of Krispy Kreme) or any business that can net $1 million/yr profit where you're the 100% owner.
 
Well, the thread is about giving advice to the OP about his proposed career change. Thus your personal views on work are not the issue here, what matters is OP's specific situation, and so we should tailor advice to his personal motivation, experience, talent etc.

OP is considering quitting a low-risk 200k per year salary, in order to chase a much higher-risk and uncertain fluctuating P&L - and his sole reason for doing so is the desire for greater job satisfaction. It is therefore critical that he be sure trading will actually provide that satisfaction.

It's a fact that strong interest correlates with performance. OP has also admitted that strong interest is a necessary requirement for his desired career. Yet it's my initial impression that he lacks strong interest in the markets - after all, he admits to not even having placed a trade. To me, he appears to be someone who is pursuing trading as a 'grass is greener' holy grail solution to his current work dilemma, rather than because it is clearly the best career path for him.

Before quitting something as difficult to attain as a 200k-1 million salary progression over a decade, he should do some serious self-reflection as to whether trading really is the career for him. Can he honestly say he will enjoy spending the next 10 years staring at blips on a screen, devoid of any human interaction, working solo almost entirely with numbers and a few news headlines? Most people cannot. Will he be fine handling the inevitable mistakes and losses along the way? Many, arguably most people, are poor at managing risk and fluctuations in account equity. Does he even find markets interesting? I often encounter people who find markets very boring.

These are the specific issues that matter to OP, and will help determine how well he does, far more so than abstract discussions about duty and work ethic. In fact, your post talks far more about your own preferences, beliefs, and motivations than about the original poster's.

Quote from Zen Student:

It would not occur to me to trade, or follow any other profession for that matter, if I did not have an interest.

This is not the same as being passionate about something, but committing to doing something brings with it the duty to do what is required, to the extent it is required - regardless of our thoughts on whether it is easy or hard, and regardless of whether we might say we have done enough when our results prove otherwise.

If you find investigation, research, problem solving, and execution tedious you would be well advised to do something else. If you are in trading you ought to make yourself rich as soon as you can. This is doing what needs to be done the most effective way you can - not messing about with self imposed fetishes, or not putting in the effort because you find it tedious.

In short, those who claim they wish to be traders but are secretly unwilling to do the work will never get there. Was there a time when most people lived their own lives to suit themselves, chose professions due to their own interest and talents (not so they could live someone elses life, make the neighbours envious or the family proud, because the media told them it was glamorous, or because they were too insecure to go it alone), and took personal pleasure in finishing what they started and performing all tasks to the absolute best of their ability? These traits seem to be the exception rather than the rule in modern times.

TL;DR - why isn't it the "norm" that we are mostly all mature and self aware enough that when one of us proposes entering a profession, others do not think to caution that we need to make sure we will put effort in, and perhaps maybe there might be a way ("investing" or non-day trading) to get the results with less work.

Do we tell aspiring doctors that actually the profession of healing is a lot of hard work, and maybe it would be better done in a country where there are less medical regulations (ie you can practice without being licensed or accredited) with worse tools and technology than you would find in the west, and if you kill a few poor patients along the way it shouldn't matter because you are unlikely to be sued or prevented from working further.

Yet nobody balks when we tell an aspiring trader that perhaps a different "style" might suit them if they are lazy, they can use less money and risk so they can carry on badly for longer, and with affordable consequences for never going anywhere.
 
Quote from Zen Student:

He has set a goal for himself. Whether this goal was unrealistic or not will be proven in time according to his own effort and abilities, not Internet blowhards who claim it cannot be done.
Is the OP a hedge fund? Not relevant. Might as well quote bond coupons or the historical results of the S&P. What does this have to do with a small independent trader trying to make a small amount of money in the futures markets?

The best and the brightest? This isn't you. What would you know about what the best and brightest can achieve?

The brutal reality is that the vast majority of small independent traders fail to break-even over their trading careers, let alone make a living from it. And the number that graduate to 1 million a year is very small indeed. Those that do tend to have an unusual aptitude and passion for markets and trading, qualities that are not apparent in OPs two posts so far.

We already have some signs of his effort and abilities - he has never even placed a trade, he is seeking out career advice on ET, and he thinks he can replace a steady 200k-1 million low-risk income dollar for dollar with similar gains from trading. If this guy were a stock, he'd be a short.
 
Quote from Zen Student:


TL;DR - why isn't it the "norm" that we are mostly all mature and self aware enough that when one of us proposes entering a profession, others do not think to caution that we need to make sure we will put effort in, and perhaps maybe there might be a way ("investing" or non-day trading) to get the results with less work.

Mature and self-aware people understand the reality that most beginners don't put the effort in, everyone works harder at things they are passionately interested in, and people who hate their work tend not to achieve abnormal success at it. Hence the focus on such performance-defining characteristics when considering a novice's suitability for the work. You don't have to take my word for it - just review the kind of interview questions that top trading firms ask prospective hires.
 
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