Becoming a Consistently Profitable Trader

[trader198]

in intra-day chart, it is hard.like coin-flipping.

after I enter, if red quickly. I will cut loss and think it is a reversal, not a pullback.there is no 100%.

for indexces, they are above50days EMA, I will not consider up trend reversal. I will buy dip. if they are under50days ema, I will consider bounce as short sale opportunity(bounce, then print red bars, I will short red bars and use the green bar HIGH as my loss cutting line)

downside/bear side is sharp down, then sharp bounce, so it is a little bit hard to operate.

extended too much,that is another breakout. extended just around old high, but almost reached there, then down, most likely they are pullbacks, extended halfway ofoldhigh,thenstarted togo down,pretty sure it is a pullback, extended notmore than half way toward old high, then down, shorted it with noeye blinked.

cooked duck may fly. only late you know that is a pullback. that is why you need a plan. PLAN A for the expected move. PLAN B for the nauty unexpected reversal.

Quote from Tiras:

How do you define trend reversal? How is it different from extended or complex pullback?

 

[trader198]

a true trader always has two plans, PLAN A and PLAN B.

an amateur does not have plan

suckers have plan, but just PLAN A: make lots of money,overnight rag to rich.

a holy grail searcher does not know trading is an odds' game, in reality behind the surface it is a gambling game, they think there must be an automatic money printing machine, they just do not know what the secrets are.

......

 

[Tiras]

Simulated Trading

Number of trades - 1
Still open

I opened the trade in overnight trading session, and it is still open (see horizontal green line on the chart). Short at 1686.75. Neither stop nor target were hit.

Several observations:
- trade was up by 10 pts, but I didn't take it, as I was shooting for a bigger profit target. It appears that market is "training" traders to grab small profits lately, as letting profits run only results in frustration. This usually happens before sharp extended move with no pullbacks.
- my best setups materialize in overnight sessions

 

[trader198]

kind of curious, why paper trading?
does that help? I think that hurts! when you do
a good trade in paper account, will create one illusion: you will do a good trade in live account too, if you try live and get a losing trade, you will feel you are defeated again.

paper trading is worthless and harmful. it creates psycholical problems such as: addiction to paper trading when you have problems live trading, thinks paper trading can save you,like alcohol to make you feel better a while;when you go live trading, you will always have "try and test" mood in your mindset. plus, it creates overtrading habit since you know it is just paper,whatever you do will not hurt your live account.

paper account is brokers' purpose: attract more suckers for commission!

Quote from Tiras:

Simulated Trading

Number of trades - 1
Still open

I opened the trade in overnight trading session, and it is still open (see horizontal green line on the chart). Short at 1686.75. Neither stop nor target were hit.

Several observations:
- trade was up by 10 pts, but I didn't take it, as I was shooting for a bigger profit target. It appears that market is "training" traders to grab small profits lately, as letting profits run only results in frustration. This usually happens before sharp extended move with no pullbacks.
- my best setups materialize in overnight sessions

 

[AaronAllen]

Quote from trader198:

will create one illusion: you will do a good trade in live account too, if you try live and get a losing trade, you will feel you are defeated again.

paper trading is worthless and harmful. it creates psycholical problems such as: addiction to paper trading when you have problems live trading,

How long did the psychologist say you will need treatment? You sound due for a visit.

 

[Tiras]

Simulated Trading

Number of trades - 0
Closed yesterday's trade at break-even

I closed trade from yesterday at break even. I traded a higher time frame, and had a multi-day profit target of 25-30 points. However, the move down should have happened by now; therefore, the setup is no longer valid. Opportunity cost of the break even trade was high as I missed four profitable setups on lower time frame.

 

[usrx201]

Quote from Tiras:

The biggest dilemma that I am facing is determining when pullback is not a pullback, but a new trend (example: today's trade). Not sure I will ever find an answer to this one.

You may have heard this before. You could use a MA to help with end of trend like looking for convincing closes above or below the MA and helping with a 2nd entry. I put a 30WMA with the screenshot attached. Otherwise your trading looks fine on sim. Like mentioned, having a Plan A, Plan B, Plan C (conditions for a stop and reverse for example), etc. can help help tone down the uncertainty if not in the market then at least in what to do when a trade goes south. Good luck with the continued journal.

 

[Tiras]

No trades yesterday as I found the price action difficult to read in the time frame that I am trading.

 

[Tiras]

Simulated Trading

No trades today. The annotations on reasons why I missed 20 points rally are on the chart below. Either I need to change the rules or live with the fact that some of the moves will be completely missed. It is shaping out as a wasted week - one break even trade so far.

 

[Tiras]

I have been having some serious health issues that put trading on a back burner. Thankfully, after multiple tests, worst case scenario was ruled out, but final diagnosis is not yet clear. So it looks like I will be around this world for a while longer; therefore, will restart the journal sometime next week.

This time I will be trading live.