Become an Expert vs Pay a Professional

Quote from NihabaAshi:



s .

Remember this...most successful traders are trading their own accounts and not the account of someone else...funny huh :cool:



NihabaAshi
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I agree!! I think this relates to what Harrytrader is saying about alpha and beta risk. What I am wondering is can they do it without the T/A skills by getting this through advisory services or in other ways?
 
Quote from tbb123:


I wonder if you can be successful in the long run with good discipline and money management but lack of analysis skills?
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YES. As has been mentioned, technical analysis is a small part of the overall trading picture. The level of proficiency needed can be had in a few hours of reading. I only use price, volume and trendlines, stuff you could understand from one magazine article. Others might spend years learning complex t/a systems, but in the end, it's all fluff. Being long term successful has NOTHING to do with being a good chart reader.
 
Quote from tbb123:


Having said this though I love the markets and love to be involved. I am doing a little of this and that but really want to know if I can hire a professional to assist me in swing/day trading and be successful or If I am not willing to bite the bullet(become true expert) should I just invest my $ safely and find other interests?

You should definitely invest 95 % of your money safely.
It sounds like you would like to keep trading like a hobby . If I am correct then you should start investment club . It should not be a problem for you to get together few of your friends and open trading account and then interview those who would be interested to provide you training or trade recommendations.
If you get together 10 guys with 5k each and pay some monthly fee for a "teacher" you should have a lot of inexpensive fun and not to be in a danger of financial ruin.
Best way to evaluate a teacher is to have him walk you through recommended trades step by step with chart examples. You have to have understanding of what is going on to have a confidence in him.
I agree with you that sitting at the screen, waiting for a signal to happen is not a fun way to spend a time.
Walter
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Quote from tbb123:

After closely following this web site and these forums for nearly 2 years I am going to ask a question in hopes of some constructive advice. I will first state my question and then give some info. as to what has led me to this point. My question is "Having realized that I will never have the detailed understanding of Technical Analysis necessary to to be a true expert in the field can I pay someone to do the analysis for me and still have success?

Now please read the rest of my background before jumping to conclusions. I am a successful businessman who has never been an Expert at any one thing. I pay a CPA to do my taxes. I pay a Lawyer to advise on law. I pay a roofer to fix my roof etc. Do I have a decent knowledge of these things? You bet. Am I an expert? no.

I have been involved in the markets for many years. I have read books from Mcmillan Options as a strategic investment to Point and figure charting by Dorsey to scanning Stocks and Commodities Mag on a monthly basis to following this web site.

Through some hard work and good fortune I have a large trading account and quite a bit of time to commit. I would guess that i may have a knowledge greater(markets/trading in general) than 95% but there is a big gulf between me and the next 5% imho. I have really looked inside myself and have come to the conclusion I am not going to commit myself to the WORK necessary to spot a Bull Flag or Doji or Watch 1 min charts hour after hour. I highly respect those of you that have committed to do this. I wont go into all the reasons why I have reached this decision for myself(Family,Other interests, Personality etc.) but suffice it to say I will not be joining your ranks.

Having said this though I love the markets and love to be involved. I am doing a little of this and that but really want to know if I can hire a professional to assist me in swing/day trading and be successful or If I am not willing to bite the bullet(become true expert) should I just invest my $ safely and find other interests?

I am really just wondering if what I have done in business ie. hiring professionals can work in this environment. On one hand my experiences in life say Hire a T/A expert and stick to the big picture. On the other hand I realize that the markets are more an art than a science and therefore I have a feeling that it may be knowledge that really has to be acquired and can not be purchased.

I believe many of the sharpest most qualified individuals in this arena are on these boards and would truly appreciate some frank honest evaluation of my thoughts. Thanks, T. l
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tbb123,

I think you should proceed very cautiously here. The trading landscape is littered with BS artists. I think much, but not all, of so-called "Technical Analysis" is also BS. I think you will find that the people who speak of the most exotic concepts are not successful traders but course and book sellers (and their devotees). I think their purpose in life is not to simplify and explain but to complicate and confuse in order to create a market for themselves.

Technical analysis is not supposed to be complicated. The most important concepts are simple and straightforward. Developing a trading method is more involved. But you are not asking for that, are you? Remember that there are Technical Analysis "experts" and there are successful traders; there is only a partial overlap. Paying someone to do your analysis work for you may sound like a good idea, but I think in this case it is like paying someone to do your exercise for you. You will probably get the worst of all possible worlds. Either do the work yourself, or let someone else manage your money for you. In the case of the latter, that's a whole other can of worms. Good luck.

Regards,

Thunderdog
 
Quote from Thunderdog:




tbb123,

I think you will find that the people who speak of the most exotic concepts are not successful traders but course and book sellers (and their devotees). I think their purpose in life is not to simplify and explain but to complicate and confuse in order to create a market for themselves.
Technical analysis is not supposed to be complicated. The most important concepts are simple and straightforward. Developing a trading method is more involved. But you are not asking for that, are you? Remember that there are Technical Analysis "experts" and there are successful traders; there is only a partial overlap. Paying someone to do your analysis work for you may sound like a good idea, but I think in this case it is like paying someone to do your exercise for you. You will probably get the worst of all possible worlds. Either do the work yourself, or let someone else manage your money for you. In the case of the latter, that's a whole other can of worms. Good luck.



Thunderdog
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Very good observation regarding those trying to complicate rather than simplify, I have seen this in other industries. I must ask if Technical analysis and successful trading do not have a high correlation then why "exercise"?
 
Quote from tbb123:
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Through some hard work and good fortune I have a large trading account and quite a bit of time to commit. I would guess that i may have a knowledge greater(markets/trading in general) than 95% but there is a big gulf between me and the next 5% imho

____________________________________________________

Thats a pretty crazy comment,you reckon you have better knowledge of the Markets and Trading than 95% of all other Traders and there is a big Gulf between you and the other 5%
2 Questions I would ask you.Being in the so called 95% bracket,cant you earn enough money out of the market to
continue increasing you large account and at the same time be satisfied and what chances do you think you have of finding 1 of the top 5% Traders to manage your money?
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Quote from Thunderdog:




tbb123,

I think you should proceed very cautiously here. The trading landscape is littered with BS artists. I think much, but not all, of so-called "Technical Analysis" is also BS. I think you will find that the people who speak of the most exotic concepts are not successful traders but course and book sellers (and their devotees). I think their purpose in life is not to simplify and explain but to complicate and confuse in order to create a market for themselves.

Technical analysis is not supposed to be complicated. The most important concepts are simple and straightforward. Developing a trading method is more involved. But you are not asking for that, are you? Remember that there are Technical Analysis "experts" and there are successful traders; there is only a partial overlap. Paying someone to do your analysis work for you may sound like a good idea, but I think in this case it is like paying someone to do your exercise for you. You will probably get the worst of all possible worlds. Either do the work yourself, or let someone else manage your money for you. In the case of the latter, that's a whole other can of worms. Good luck.

Regards,

Thunderdog
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I wholeheartedly agree, TA is not supposed to be complicated at all.

The basic concepts of all indicators are functions of price action (i.e. up & down closings, relationship of highs & lows, etc.). Fairly simple calculations of market events.

But not to oversimplify. One sought after key is to ANTICIPATE market activity based on these calculations (indicators). This takes some study or coaching (choose well).

In a recent thread Harry mentioned to keep things simple "higher highs and lower lows". He was talking stochastics in its root form. Simple.

As to hiring a professional, I agree that there are many hustlers out there (we all get solicited I'm sure). One way to sift through that is to make sure your choice to manage your money is a member of Securities or Futures organizations that closely monitor performance. This is not always failsafe, but it cuts out a lot of small-time hustlers. Again, the problem is account size. Many want very sizable accounts to make it worth their while.

As always,

Much Success to All,
 
Quote from StockOperator:

Quote from tbb123:
____________________________________________________

Through some hard work and good fortune I have a large trading account and quite a bit of time to commit. I would guess that i may have a knowledge greater(markets/trading in general) than 95% but there is a big gulf between me and the next 5% imho

____________________________________________________

Thats a pretty crazy comment,you reckon you have better knowledge of the Markets and Trading than 95% of all other Traders and there is a big Gulf between you and the other 5%
2 Questions I would ask you.Being in the so called 95% bracket,cant you earn enough money out of the market to
continue increasing you large account and at the same time be satisfied and what chances do you think you have of finding 1 of the top 5% Traders to manage your money?
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Sorry for the lack of specifics. I was referring to 95% of all people in general. Not 95% of traders.
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The natural evolution of all markets is towards "heat death" meaning that the only profits left in mature markets are to the arbs.

The key to being a good traders is to constantly go where the markets are not as mature, or a mature market that has been "forgotten," and always stay a step ahead of MOST of the crowd. Another way is to play markets where you are getting paid to take on the risk noone else wants and bear it. There, the key is to be defensive and play the odds. If you understand these last two statements, you will start to understand the logic of trading, and it doesn't start with technical analysis, it ends with it (though it is where most people start.)

The only way you are going to learn trading is by trial and error (notice that this requires a certain amount of courage) and making keen observations, unless you land the golden goose in the form of an honest to goodness mentor. You are not even asking the right question. No one that I have ever met is willing to part with an "edge" in an immature market, only in mature markets where the market is approacing "heat death." People that continue to tell you there are no "secrets" are trading mature markets. In fact, knowing an edge and being saavy enough or quick enough, etc is only one part of the equation! A trader brings several skills together to bear on making profits day in and day out, much of which has made it into the subconcious.

Technical Analysis is a must for any trading education, but ONCE you have become a trader you will realize why, not before.

Best of luck.

nitro
 
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