Beautiful Scalper
- Thread starter BeautifulStranger
- Start date
Lol ES goes another 40 handles straight up during day session and this joker losses $60 scalping MES.
The question is, will idiots ever realize they are idiots ?
You left the best part out: Scalping in direction of trend and only making money on 1/6 trades.
Yesterday’s train wreck aside, my account is still basically intact, making it easy for me to recover.
As far as realizing I’m a idiot, I’m only $4900.00 or two months away if not significantly profitable on a percentage basis by end of June.
Care to post a screenshot of your trading results this month?
Edit: No scalps today.
Attached below is a marked up chart for Tuesday, partially showing my scalping methodology. I do monitor the DOM as additional input for decisions. My losses yesterday were the result of solely relying on impulse or momentum bars for my decisions. As it turned out, scaling would have been the way to go:
As far as my future in scalping:
As far as my future in scalping:
Ego /On
Although today was a work day, I was able to fire off 8 opening trades, 7 of which were scalps. 6 scalps were profitable, with a small loss on the other one. They were all counter-trend trades. All of these trades followed specific entry setups. All of my 4 morning trades followed specific exit rules. I violated my rules badly in the afternoon, near RTH close trades. More on that later.
Today was an exceptional learning day that will guide my trading forward.
The first 2 trades were based on a context-price action mismatch. Seemingly out the blue, volume picked up substantially in NQ. I decided to short MNQ on that basis, but noticed for all the action, bids retreated slowly. It appeared there was underlying support. I exited 3 minutes later for a 31 tick profit. Then the other futures started to weaken substantially. 4 minutes later, I shorted MNQ again, only to see the bids become even more resilient to being hit. 3 ticks from my target, the current bid seemed impenetrable, but before I could change my order, a massive push by the sellers gave me the execution. This trade lasted about a minute and a half and I took 25 ticks. Had I been on the ball, I would have listened to the market demanding that I go long at that point.
Although I should know better than to fade the stronger stocks, I couldn’t help myself with MAR. On the second impulse move down one the 1 minute bar, without progress being made to the upside, I went short. After the action started to slow, I covered for a profit of $.15. The trade lasted for about 90 seconds. It was noteworthy how responsive the inside market was to my 100 share order on my entry order, exit orders, and some cancelled orders. This is an area for future study.
My last morning trade was to short MES on a reversion to mean trade. I was stopped out on a time stop for a 4 tick profit. This trade last 5 minutes, which is longer than my rules allow.
Ego /Off
I put on a directional butterfly in ES puts thinking the prior month’s high should be a formidable resistance area, especially how quickly and far the market has come back. It will be many years for some industries to come back. Consumer spending patterns, after perhaps a brief pent up splurge, will likely remain suppressed for quite some time on job security concerns. All this will not play out in the duration of this trade, but I can’t be the only trader thinking this way.
Ego /Crushed
Ok, I took some reversion to mean trades that were intended to be scalps and ignored my exit rules. Then I added on. Twice. The only way I can suffer a big loss is not following my money management rules. The only way for me to not follow my rules and avoid big losses is to greatly underutilize my capital, causing tremendous long term under performance. In a world where a valuable commodity can trade negative $16.00 per barrel, zero interest rates, implicit or explicit Government to dealer backstop guarantees, and a funding facility and I am playing games with money management? Again? and Again? The profits it seemed like I made are only borrowed from future losses. These profits will be paid back plus a big interest rate if I remain undisciplined. I’ve seen it before in myself and in others. I may have a low pain threshold, but to be boiled slowly alive with underperformance is also futile.
I know all my rules. Follow them. To that end, all futures trades must be posted with a reason, exit, and stop. The trade size must be large enough that a stop loss would represent .8% of capital.
My account balance is down to 29.6k on unfavorable price moves against my options positions.
Attached below is my trade log and Daily PnL:
Edit: No more counter-trend or reversion to mean type of trading for me. I have to trade with a trend as defined either by the current price relative to the open, daily or weekly bar breakout or price action according to chart I’m looking at.
Although today was a work day, I was able to fire off 8 opening trades, 7 of which were scalps. 6 scalps were profitable, with a small loss on the other one. They were all counter-trend trades. All of these trades followed specific entry setups. All of my 4 morning trades followed specific exit rules. I violated my rules badly in the afternoon, near RTH close trades. More on that later.
Today was an exceptional learning day that will guide my trading forward.
The first 2 trades were based on a context-price action mismatch. Seemingly out the blue, volume picked up substantially in NQ. I decided to short MNQ on that basis, but noticed for all the action, bids retreated slowly. It appeared there was underlying support. I exited 3 minutes later for a 31 tick profit. Then the other futures started to weaken substantially. 4 minutes later, I shorted MNQ again, only to see the bids become even more resilient to being hit. 3 ticks from my target, the current bid seemed impenetrable, but before I could change my order, a massive push by the sellers gave me the execution. This trade lasted about a minute and a half and I took 25 ticks. Had I been on the ball, I would have listened to the market demanding that I go long at that point.
Although I should know better than to fade the stronger stocks, I couldn’t help myself with MAR. On the second impulse move down one the 1 minute bar, without progress being made to the upside, I went short. After the action started to slow, I covered for a profit of $.15. The trade lasted for about 90 seconds. It was noteworthy how responsive the inside market was to my 100 share order on my entry order, exit orders, and some cancelled orders. This is an area for future study.
My last morning trade was to short MES on a reversion to mean trade. I was stopped out on a time stop for a 4 tick profit. This trade last 5 minutes, which is longer than my rules allow.
Ego /Off
I put on a directional butterfly in ES puts thinking the prior month’s high should be a formidable resistance area, especially how quickly and far the market has come back. It will be many years for some industries to come back. Consumer spending patterns, after perhaps a brief pent up splurge, will likely remain suppressed for quite some time on job security concerns. All this will not play out in the duration of this trade, but I can’t be the only trader thinking this way.
Ego /Crushed
Ok, I took some reversion to mean trades that were intended to be scalps and ignored my exit rules. Then I added on. Twice. The only way I can suffer a big loss is not following my money management rules. The only way for me to not follow my rules and avoid big losses is to greatly underutilize my capital, causing tremendous long term under performance. In a world where a valuable commodity can trade negative $16.00 per barrel, zero interest rates, implicit or explicit Government to dealer backstop guarantees, and a funding facility and I am playing games with money management? Again? and Again? The profits it seemed like I made are only borrowed from future losses. These profits will be paid back plus a big interest rate if I remain undisciplined. I’ve seen it before in myself and in others. I may have a low pain threshold, but to be boiled slowly alive with underperformance is also futile.
I know all my rules. Follow them. To that end, all futures trades must be posted with a reason, exit, and stop. The trade size must be large enough that a stop loss would represent .8% of capital.
My account balance is down to 29.6k on unfavorable price moves against my options positions.
Attached below is my trade log and Daily PnL:
Edit: No more counter-trend or reversion to mean type of trading for me. I have to trade with a trend as defined either by the current price relative to the open, daily or weekly bar breakout or price action according to chart I’m looking at.
Last edited:
So I laid down the law on myself concerning discipline and a few hours later I broke it (I took a nap in between). Ok, I am undisciplined and unfocused. To the bone. I always have been, and probably will always be that way. What to do? Without discipline, what is the point of rules? How does one find a profitable system and stick with it without discipline or focus? Would being a degenerate gambler be an improvement in my case?
I could make a rule that I may only scalp as part of a hedging strategy on my overnight option spreads. Do I need to create an interface that will not let me take naked positions?
1st trade was a reversion to mean scalp on MNQ. Made 20 ticks.
2nd trade was a partial hedge on my ES ‘fly. Made 5 ticks.
3rd trade was a short put on WFC. I’m happy to take delivery on a money center bank, as any stimulus efforts worth its salt will be supportive, quite supportive, of this industry.
4th trade was a near instant splatsky on a Silver ‘fly in calls. Spent too long trying to split the spread on my hedge, costing 12 ticks or so. I have an open loss so far.
5th trade was the silver ‘fly hedge. Made 5 ticks.
6th trade was a hedge on my ES ‘fly. I panicked. PTSS due to the viciousness of prior short covering rallies, I guess. Ultimately made 5 ticks a while after dumping the underlying trade. Glad I did not go for a test of nearby resistance.
7th trade was closing out my overnight ES ‘fly at a profit.
8th trade, and still open, is a new silver ‘fly hedge.
9th trade is a WFC ‘fly. Only 1 was executed out of an intended 10 due to order entry error, where i thought making the structure 10x20x10 was sufficient. The structure is 1x2x1 and the quantity should have been 10.
Overall, I was happy with my trading. I need to adhere to a time limit when providing liquidity when working a hedge order.
Account value back to original starting value. Looks like my open NG ‘fly is giving me some play. I presume Friday will be an up day simply because of how pretty a long green monthly bar would look!
I could make a rule that I may only scalp as part of a hedging strategy on my overnight option spreads. Do I need to create an interface that will not let me take naked positions?
1st trade was a reversion to mean scalp on MNQ. Made 20 ticks.
2nd trade was a partial hedge on my ES ‘fly. Made 5 ticks.
3rd trade was a short put on WFC. I’m happy to take delivery on a money center bank, as any stimulus efforts worth its salt will be supportive, quite supportive, of this industry.
4th trade was a near instant splatsky on a Silver ‘fly in calls. Spent too long trying to split the spread on my hedge, costing 12 ticks or so. I have an open loss so far.
5th trade was the silver ‘fly hedge. Made 5 ticks.
6th trade was a hedge on my ES ‘fly. I panicked. PTSS due to the viciousness of prior short covering rallies, I guess. Ultimately made 5 ticks a while after dumping the underlying trade. Glad I did not go for a test of nearby resistance.
7th trade was closing out my overnight ES ‘fly at a profit.
8th trade, and still open, is a new silver ‘fly hedge.
9th trade is a WFC ‘fly. Only 1 was executed out of an intended 10 due to order entry error, where i thought making the structure 10x20x10 was sufficient. The structure is 1x2x1 and the quantity should have been 10.
Overall, I was happy with my trading. I need to adhere to a time limit when providing liquidity when working a hedge order.
Account value back to original starting value. Looks like my open NG ‘fly is giving me some play. I presume Friday will be an up day simply because of how pretty a long green monthly bar would look!
Lost 14 ticks in MES overall. I had to ignore a lot bullish indicators to short a rising market after the US floated the China “Retaliation” balloon. Such is the negative influence of bias.
So I hear this news while in a truck stop and proverbially dropped my chalupa, ran into a post while looking the other way for traffic as I ran out the store, and while still reeling, tested the attachment of a fire hydrant with my crotch before making it to my truck to fire up my trading platform.
My plan was to simply hedge my overall estimated exposure of 20 delta ES equivalent. Then I decided to trade and ending up violating a fundamental rule of my reversion to mean strategy: Don’t trade reversion-to-mean strategies during the first two hours of the session open.
Trade 1 - Error trade. Meant to short, not buy. Lost 2 ticks.
Trade 2 - Entered on first momentum in direction I thought market would go. Closed because getting through bids was like pulling teeth. Lost 12 ticks.
Trade 3 - Entered on MA penetration in direction I thought market would go. I ignored several indicators at the time: PA was against me and volatility of rising bars was generally greater than declining bars as related to stronger bids versus offers. I exited this trade on a pullback, but did not keep it on fears we would close the session to session gap. In addition, the session opening price pivot was breached again, most recently by a meaningful amount. Lost a juicy 24 ticks. You’re welcome, you professional and rich PA traders!
Trade 4 - Averaged a loser. After all if it was good to sell at... blah blah. What ever happened to my 2nd penetration of the open and gap fill fear? Closed on persistently strong bids. Made back 20 ticks.
Trade 5 - Hmmm, a little bit of a ceiling here. Maybe I’ll get my money back from the PA guys after all. Oh no, the bids are still, if not stronger, here. As Arnold and the other robot said in Terminator: “Get out!” 0 ticks.
Trade 6 - This was a high confidence entry. The gap filled and the bids lost the strong support they had. As a bonus, I now had “some protection” with two potential resistance areas at the previous high price and the gap fill line. My initial target was penetration of the most recent reaction low on ideas of worsening risk environment as indicated by correlated assets. However, I realized I did not yet have confirmation by PA, so decided to exit and wait for confirmation. After confirmation, I figured a good entry area would be the moving average. I sat back and satisfyingly watched the short entry area come and go, a lower recent low made, another return to the moving average, and so on. Feeling a sense of clarity now, a clarity worth a billion plus of delta to me, I was no longer concerned about my unhedged 20 delta, shut down my platform, and continued my evening.
Trade 7 - Closed NG ‘fly over risk environment concerns and difficulty in directly hedging.
Now long 100 WF on options assignment.
In conclusion, instead of fighting PA, especially in the first two hours of the open, I shall look to join the group of winning professionals in future trading sessions.
Attached below is list of trades and marked chart:
So I hear this news while in a truck stop and proverbially dropped my chalupa, ran into a post while looking the other way for traffic as I ran out the store, and while still reeling, tested the attachment of a fire hydrant with my crotch before making it to my truck to fire up my trading platform.
My plan was to simply hedge my overall estimated exposure of 20 delta ES equivalent. Then I decided to trade and ending up violating a fundamental rule of my reversion to mean strategy: Don’t trade reversion-to-mean strategies during the first two hours of the session open.
Trade 1 - Error trade. Meant to short, not buy. Lost 2 ticks.
Trade 2 - Entered on first momentum in direction I thought market would go. Closed because getting through bids was like pulling teeth. Lost 12 ticks.
Trade 3 - Entered on MA penetration in direction I thought market would go. I ignored several indicators at the time: PA was against me and volatility of rising bars was generally greater than declining bars as related to stronger bids versus offers. I exited this trade on a pullback, but did not keep it on fears we would close the session to session gap. In addition, the session opening price pivot was breached again, most recently by a meaningful amount. Lost a juicy 24 ticks. You’re welcome, you professional and rich PA traders!
Trade 4 - Averaged a loser. After all if it was good to sell at... blah blah. What ever happened to my 2nd penetration of the open and gap fill fear? Closed on persistently strong bids. Made back 20 ticks.
Trade 5 - Hmmm, a little bit of a ceiling here. Maybe I’ll get my money back from the PA guys after all. Oh no, the bids are still, if not stronger, here. As Arnold and the other robot said in Terminator: “Get out!” 0 ticks.
Trade 6 - This was a high confidence entry. The gap filled and the bids lost the strong support they had. As a bonus, I now had “some protection” with two potential resistance areas at the previous high price and the gap fill line. My initial target was penetration of the most recent reaction low on ideas of worsening risk environment as indicated by correlated assets. However, I realized I did not yet have confirmation by PA, so decided to exit and wait for confirmation. After confirmation, I figured a good entry area would be the moving average. I sat back and satisfyingly watched the short entry area come and go, a lower recent low made, another return to the moving average, and so on. Feeling a sense of clarity now, a clarity worth a billion plus of delta to me, I was no longer concerned about my unhedged 20 delta, shut down my platform, and continued my evening.
Trade 7 - Closed NG ‘fly over risk environment concerns and difficulty in directly hedging.
Now long 100 WF on options assignment.
In conclusion, instead of fighting PA, especially in the first two hours of the open, I shall look to join the group of winning professionals in future trading sessions.
Attached below is list of trades and marked chart:
i like that your keeping at it but if you cant trade demo and be profitable scalping then you will never be profitable in the unforgiving live markets. Demo doesnt account for iceberg orders so many of your fills would never fill. hft can and does cancel to lower qty all the time to reduce risk but keep u unfilled.
you should be making thousands of dollars in demo easily b4 thinking about live trading. i would stop now and think about how undisciplined you are when u r laying down some fictitious law on yourself that you yourself do not enforce.
Good point. But real losses, even small ones are still painful. Posting them on a public forum is even more painful yet. Since I learn faster when under stress, I believe it is in my best interest to continue to trade live. If anything, I have been trading way too conservatively. Perhaps if I got whacked for a $500+ loss on a trade where I violated my rules, I would think twice before violating them again. Besides, my current employment can well cover any potential losses.
Another idea, previously mentioned, was for me to take defined risk trades with option spreads and partially hedge the directional component while enjoying a potential statistical advantage through differences in volatilities of the legs.
Anyway, thanks for your feedback.