I believe that I make my own luck.
You don't make that kind of money in nine months by simply being lucky. I guess I was lucky when I made 56% in the book, The Stock Trader on the long side in a crashing market. I guess I don't know how to trade after all.
Timing is everything when you launch a system, but expectancy is everything in the long run.
When you call Larry lucky, it will be no difference if you repeat his performance and someone else calls you lucky.
And please stop comparing this to lotto. If you play lotto, then you know that once you send your ticket you cannot change the outcome. I.E. there is no TRADE MANAGEMENT in lottery - no stop loss, trailing stops,price targets, greed, fear, hindsight etc....
I find the lotto comparison to be an
insult to our profession.
When I say I believe in creating your own luck, please refer to:
http://www.tonyoz.com/usual.htm "Since I remembered that a wise man once said, âIâd rather be lucky than smart,â I knew that I had to discover a way to find these stocks on the first day of their move. Consequently, I developed the Usual Suspects Scan." Anyhow, the examples in that web page is what I am talking about.
Finally, Fillip, when you say, "Well, he never came anywhere close to this record and he didn't make enough trades to exclude the luck factor. 95 % of my trades will be daytrades. I will make so many trades that the luck factor can be excluded ; the law of the big numbers." You simply say that if someone is very selective in the trades he takes and is willing to hold potions overnight more than 5% of the time then he is lucky and not skilled!
Many of the success stories I hear have a common thing such as "I've made more money in those 18-24 months than I have in my entire life." Now we can argue for years if luck or skill were the reason for the success in that short time period.
Now being able to repeat a performance is a whole other issue. Sometime we are just not at the top of our game for more than a very short period of time. Was barry Bonds lucky to hit 73 HR last season or was it skill? Will he ever be able to repeat this performance? How many HRs did Mark McGuire hit after he broke the 66 HRs record? In other words, he set a record for the most HRs in a season which is comparable to Williams' record and then he became a good producer (top 35 in the league) which will compare to 100% a year gain or so, and then he got hurt.
Mark my words!
You cannot enjoy an eternity at the top of your game. Yet, it will take a lot of hard work and SKILL to get you there.
Once you go through the entire cycle, you will agree with me. I am willing to bet on that. But first let's see you get to the top of your game, and we will talk later
Tony
