Beating Larry Williams record
- Thread starter sabena
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Ive been following this thread from the beginning and the topic is
I'm sorry to say pretty lame. It reminds me of the time I used to
be in kindergarten when some kids used to boast that they
were gonna do this and that ... you know what I mean!!
It was pretty obvious from the start that this thread was not
going to get anywhere either!
Darkhorse - I've read some of your previous posts you sound
pretty intelligent and know your trading stuff. If this sabena
bloke is blowing hot smelly air let him. If he wants to prove to us
that he so great then he should post/prove to us his trading
experience..
Personally if I had been in his shoes I would have made the million $ or whatever and then declared to the world. If it was
*me* I probably wouldnt have .....
I am currently in the educational phase and agree
100% that trading is not about knowing probability/stats/maths
etc. However I will say that knowing these things definitely
gives one an edge over other people who dont. I have not
traded yet but I now understand that trading is about
experience. The dept I work in has many FE/quants. If trading
was about maths etc then they would be the best traders. Sadly they arent and the majority are stuck in their own little merry
world
Regards,
Splat
I'm sorry to say pretty lame. It reminds me of the time I used to
be in kindergarten when some kids used to boast that they
were gonna do this and that ... you know what I mean!!
It was pretty obvious from the start that this thread was not
going to get anywhere either!
Darkhorse - I've read some of your previous posts you sound
pretty intelligent and know your trading stuff. If this sabena
bloke is blowing hot smelly air let him. If he wants to prove to us
that he so great then he should post/prove to us his trading
experience..
Personally if I had been in his shoes I would have made the million $ or whatever and then declared to the world. If it was
*me* I probably wouldnt have .....
I am currently in the educational phase and agree
100% that trading is not about knowing probability/stats/maths
etc. However I will say that knowing these things definitely
gives one an edge over other people who dont. I have not
traded yet but I now understand that trading is about
experience. The dept I work in has many FE/quants. If trading
was about maths etc then they would be the best traders. Sadly they arent and the majority are stuck in their own little merry
world
Regards,
Splat
Ok everyone zip up your trousers for a minute. This thread is getting a bit heated. Even the usually jovial tom_p is fixin for a duel of words.
Here is a formula (not the only path) for making $1,000,000 trading EMINI ES contracts over a year's time:
Trade 20 EMINIS day in and day out. Average 4 points net $250 (per contract) on the ES (including drawdowns, slippage, commission, power outages, computer failures etc.). Or if you want to think about it on a weekly basis (since daily results will likely have lots of variance), net 20 ES points on 20 contracts weekly (20x20)x$50 x 50 weeks = $1,000,000.
Brains from Brussels will have to start with fewer contracts with $10K in his account, so he will have to average slightly higher than 4pts net/car or trade more than 20 contracts sometime over the year. Consistency is the key to the whole operation, so the way that he handles himself when he is losing will be paramount. The above assumes 50 weeks of trading 5 days a week (which is just about 15 holiday days), so outages or inability to trade on additional days will cut into the net. Not all trading days have equal opportunities so keeping the average up will require cashing in on good trading days to offset the poor ones when there is either little liquidity or a market unfavorable to sabena's trading style.
Sabena has a chance to do it if he can remain consistent and keep his head when he increases his size and starts taking larger dollar value losses and profits. The current liquidity in the ES should be more than sufficient for Trading 20-50 ES contracts, even on a very short-term basis. Whether anyone can trade that consistently over time remains to be seen though.
Here is a formula (not the only path) for making $1,000,000 trading EMINI ES contracts over a year's time:
Trade 20 EMINIS day in and day out. Average 4 points net $250 (per contract) on the ES (including drawdowns, slippage, commission, power outages, computer failures etc.). Or if you want to think about it on a weekly basis (since daily results will likely have lots of variance), net 20 ES points on 20 contracts weekly (20x20)x$50 x 50 weeks = $1,000,000.
Brains from Brussels will have to start with fewer contracts with $10K in his account, so he will have to average slightly higher than 4pts net/car or trade more than 20 contracts sometime over the year. Consistency is the key to the whole operation, so the way that he handles himself when he is losing will be paramount. The above assumes 50 weeks of trading 5 days a week (which is just about 15 holiday days), so outages or inability to trade on additional days will cut into the net. Not all trading days have equal opportunities so keeping the average up will require cashing in on good trading days to offset the poor ones when there is either little liquidity or a market unfavorable to sabena's trading style.
Sabena has a chance to do it if he can remain consistent and keep his head when he increases his size and starts taking larger dollar value losses and profits. The current liquidity in the ES should be more than sufficient for Trading 20-50 ES contracts, even on a very short-term basis. Whether anyone can trade that consistently over time remains to be seen though.
Lobster,
It's not that there is a specifik treshold.
As the number of contracts traded increaeses, the number
of points made will be less with each contract extra.
The average size at the best bid and offer was the last
days around 90.
If you make a trade with one contract and you make 2 points
then you will make only 1.85 points with 100 contracts.
The number of contracts where you dollar profit reaches a
maximum is
numberofcontractsmax = 150*(number of points/number of trades) - 15.7
So if your average number of points per trade is .5 then
numberofcontractsmax = 60
You have to bring up the average number of points per trade
to be able to trade more contracts.
It's not that there is a specifik treshold.
As the number of contracts traded increaeses, the number
of points made will be less with each contract extra.
The average size at the best bid and offer was the last
days around 90.
If you make a trade with one contract and you make 2 points
then you will make only 1.85 points with 100 contracts.
The number of contracts where you dollar profit reaches a
maximum is
numberofcontractsmax = 150*(number of points/number of trades) - 15.7
So if your average number of points per trade is .5 then
numberofcontractsmax = 60
You have to bring up the average number of points per trade
to be able to trade more contracts.
I personally do not dream about turning $10,000 into 1M in a year. The argument is whether it's possible or not.
Reason:
Sabena has a chance to do it if he can remain consistent and keep his head when he increases his size and starts taking larger dollar value losses and profits. The current liquidity in the ES should be more than sufficient for Trading 20-50 ES contracts, even on a very short-term basis. Whether anyone can trade that consistently over time remains to be seen though.
That's a huge problem!
Reason:
Sabena has a chance to do it if he can remain consistent and keep his head when he increases his size and starts taking larger dollar value losses and profits. The current liquidity in the ES should be more than sufficient for Trading 20-50 ES contracts, even on a very short-term basis. Whether anyone can trade that consistently over time remains to be seen though.
That's a huge problem!
Thats my goal precisely, not worried about the shape of an equity curve only profit. No need to compound, satisfied with declining % risked
currently trading 40eminiSnP at a pop
40 emini=$500/tick, $2000/point
2.5points=5K, usually can be made in less than 15-20minutes
5K*200 trading days =1Million
okay I've got my silver suit on now!
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