Homework for Monday Euro FX
i will trade this contract next week due to my 9-5 (shift)
The bigger picture is still bearish as the trend is clearly down
indictaed by a series of Lower Highs/Lows , but right now we are
trading on an interresting level the actual Supplyline is newly
drawn and and the reaction off that potential supplyline
found support early (1) then formed a small range(box) gapped
up thru the suplyline (2) and traded back into the box .. wehere
we are ATM.
so the supply line i drew is only potential , as we do have some
signs of strenght coming into the market wich may lead to a
change in behaviour..
The Down Move till point (A) was represented also as a supply
channel and we notice , that we have a shortening of the
downward thrust (doesent come close to the oiversold line
(smallchannel) even on increasing/high Volume, price doesnt
make a new low (Jun2010) and price breaks out of the channel
and starts a rallie (A).
That rallie is on increasing volume and sharp up moves , wide up
bars indicating strenght this rallie starting from Jul. till sept. was
the biggest and strongest rallie since the start of teh decline
in Aug.2011..
thusfar we are still in an downtrend .. but with recent since of
strenght in the background..
Now we are trading at an interresting point (B) at the mom. we
didnt create buying interrest, leading to a lower high, but we also
didnt bounce off that level , we are still sitting there ,whereas
now we either break below and test the recent lows again if we
dont create demand at this critical level , or we absorb remaining
supply at this level , and eventually break above the recent LH....
either way i will be prepared to take action..
lets take a run thru different scenarios iam looking for and how i
would play them if PA dictates ... (M5-M1)
here on the 15 Min chart we can see the Gapp up above the
supplyline , where we then formed a range (box)
wich idnicates that there was at first no interrest in following the
price any higher (no demand) we then traded back below the
supply line and eventually formed a channel wich even trades
back into the bigger range (H1) .. due to the recent action and the
background (downtrend) .. shorts are in favour..
scenarios on H1