Bears throwing in the towel everywere . Fighting the Fed did them in

[Nine_Ender]

I've been around 31 yrs and as far as the mkt goes this is as giddy as i've ever seen it . Small stocks by the 10 plus a day up 50-100% . I personally know at least 15 people from the past 3 months trading daily as a side kick . Uone $2 to $54 in 7 days because its a black company . Insanity everywhere but the trends up and the desire to buy dips is mind bobbling . This puts 1999 to shame . I'm basically trading 80% long and 20% short . But the short scalps are usually 10 mins to an hr . The mantra everywhere is you can't lose long as the Fed has your back . I'm still of the opinion we tank big at some pt in the coming months . But i trade price and until i see the proof i'm very cautious when i short . But when the mkt tells me its time to short hard i will . I'm nothing more than a servant to the mkt . I obey its commands .

Nonsense this is nothing like 1999; there are some similarities to 2009. Nasdaq went up 89% in 1999 after 40% in 1998. Some new listings shot up like a rocket from $15 to $100+ in an hour. This is a rather tame market that is confusing you because you expect it to be lower. In terms if percentage daily moves not a lot going on for weeks really.

The data doesn't support you either. Huge wads of money in money market funds; a ton of people are sitting this market out. Still a lot of value plays out there it's the tech heavyweights putting the indexes where they are.

 

[bone]

Nothing like '98-'99; nothing like '08.

Different market factors completely. Totally different underlying circumstances.

It might be fair to say that revenues in the short term don't meet current valuations. It is off the mark (being polite) to compare the current market structure to the NASDAQ dot com bubble or the subprime mortgage crisis. There is just no commonality. Even if you look at the 1918 pandemic there was a worldwide recession underway as the world shifted from wartime production to consumer production.

In the '98-'99 bubble Companies went bust and there was no prospect for those companies (other than a handful) reemerging. After the 2008 financial crisis there was no prospect for those Companies or jobs coming back. None.

If a bar or a restaurant closes, usually another will step up to meet the demand in some form.

You're looking at a government mandated labor market disruption. You are not looking at 95 percent of a major market index losing 90 percent of it's value because none of the companies made a single dollar but were bid up to the moon by speculators. You are not looking at a massively over-levered international debt market built upon worthless subprime housing mortgages by a criminal Wall Street cabal.

Nonsense this is nothing like 1999; there are some similarities to 2009. Nasdaq went up 89% in 1999 after 40% in 1998. Some new listings shot up like a rocket from $15 to $100+ in an hour. This is a rather tame market that is confusing you because you expect it to be lower. In terms if percentage daily moves not a lot going on for weeks really.

The data doesn't support you either. Huge wads of money in money market funds; a ton of people are sitting this market out. Still a lot of value plays out there it's the tech heavyweights putting the indexes where they are.

 

[KCalhoun]

At least volatility is up. Traded TVIX TZA today.

 

[NoahA]

The data doesn't support you either. Huge wads of money in money market funds; a ton of people are sitting this market out.

I think there is a lot of truth to this. What is really going on is the huge inequality that is out there. Rich people have lots of assets and cash, and the stock market is reflective of the extra money people have to invest. At some point I think the market will have to reflect the economy, but this too is in a gray area right now with continued money printing and the market being a big inflation hedge. If the market doubles but so does your loaf of bread, then we can't really can't about the market going up.

What sucks is poor people are really getting left behind, no way to protect what little wealth they have, and the bottom jobs are the ones that are gone for good. This time it seems the FED is trying to throw money at the little guy, not just bailing out the rich ones, but this too will have the effect of helping the people at the top more than at the bottom.

 

[bone]

Welcome to life, Noah. It's been that way since people figured out that mutual barter was safer than killing each other for a piece of food.

There have been waiters, cooks, bartenders, blacksmiths and landlords for thousands of years.

And traders for that matter.

I think there is a lot of truth to this. What is really going on is the huge inequality that is out there. Rich people have lots of assets and cash, and the stock market is reflective of the extra money people have to invest. At some point I think the market will have to reflect the economy, but this too is in a gray area right now with continued money printing and the market being a big inflation hedge. If the market doubles but so does your loaf of bread, then we can't really can't about the market going up.

What sucks is poor people are really getting left behind, no way to protect what little wealth they have, and the bottom jobs are the ones that are gone for good. This time it seems the FED is trying to throw money at the little guy, not just bailing out the rich ones, but this too will have the effect of helping the people at the top more than at the bottom.

 

[hafez50]

Nothing like '98-'99; nothing like '08.

Different market factors completely. Totally different underlying circumstances.

It might be fair to say that revenues in the short term don't meet current valuations. It is off the mark (being polite) to compare the current market structure to the NASDAQ dot com bubble or the subprime mortgage crisis. There is just no commonality. Even if you look at the 1918 pandemic there was a worldwide recession underway as the world shifted from wartime production to consumer production.

In the '98-'99 bubble Companies went bust and there was no prospect for those companies (other than a handful) reemerging. After the 2008 financial crisis there was no prospect for those Companies or jobs coming back. None.

If a bar or a restaurant closes, usually another will step up to meet the demand in some form.

You're looking at a government mandated labor market disruption. You are not looking at 95 percent of a major market index losing 90 percent of it's value because none of the companies made a single dollar but were bid up to the moon by speculators. You are not looking at a massively over-levered international debt market built upon worthless subprime housing mortgages by a criminal Wall Street cabal.

I 100% disagree . Yes 99 had many more big co’s up . But the speculation on small stocks up 5-30 fold in a few months is something I’ve never seen in so many . Also there’s 10 times the retail investors who’ve flooded the mkt over this 3 month span that any 3 months over the 90’s .Thats a by product of no commissions and nothing to do . Also in retrospect to basically being in a depression now versus the infancy of the net and earnings growth of 20% plus this 100 times crazier

 

[yc47ib]

This is a true story in 2000, a friend of mine exercised the stock option she got for when she joined the network company for about 400 dollars a share profit; while the company lawyer took about 2 months to finish the paperwork, by that time, she owed about 2 millions in tax, and the stock is already lower than her initial assignment price.

That is a story not that unique in the Silicon Valley in 2000-2001. The company I worked for never went public, so I did not owe any tax to the IRS, LOL.

Thus, I agree with bone, it is hard to compare. No stories like this surfacing this round. Not likely they will. FWIW, here the the chart of that stock.

 

[formikatrading]

I actually remember hearing stories like the one above. Not sure why people exercised their options but they did! That being said, I think Hafez's point is still valid -- the last time the retail trader was so involved in the market was that 1999 time frame. Sure, the conditions back then were different but that doesn't negate his point.

 

[Nine_Ender]

I actually remember hearing stories like the one above. Not sure why people exercised their options but they did! That being said, I think Hafez's point is still valid -- the last time the retail trader was so involved in the market was that 1999 time frame. Sure, the conditions back then were different but that doesn't negate his point.

I remember two stories in the 1990s. One, when every IPO seemed to skyrocket before they even opened the first morning, some woman in Toronto put a market order on one of them and got filled at or close to the daily high, then got a massive margin call later that day. She was 40K in the hole and that kind of money was huge to her. Another, somebody I knew worked for an IT spin off from BMO had stock options or related shares in his company and if he had sold the shares once the lock down was over he'd have made 750K. But he didn't sell and lost most of that gain when the stock came back to earth. Everything was bigger and faster back then the dot com was far wilder then anything going on right now. And in terms of big tech, one key difference is many of the heavyweights cap wise weren't profitable at all some were burning cash on an unproven business model ( with the exception of a few like Microsoft and IBM ). Today, the really big tech firms are making huge money on a proven business model; one can argue some are overvalued but some of them ( AMZN, GOOG, FB ) have decent looking forward P/E still.