Quote from lorax2013:
I may be missing something, but the constant talk about "projected consumption" and a disconnect from "projected production" has always seemed like total nonsense to me. Consumption will ALWAYS equal production minus an insignificant amount of storage. If you want to know the increase in oil consumption, it is in the production numbers - OPEC's site is probably best. This is not an issue of "consensus" or speculation. The one thing which is not discussed however, is what percentage of production goes right back into pumping and refining more oil. This percentage has been increasing rapidly as we are forced to go after fields with a lower energy return on investment.
Not convinced you can ignore storage if the main impetus behind price is speculation and forward contracts. I don't really know, but not convinced.