Oftentimes when a thread about being bearish on the market is posted, you find a lot of folks attacking the messenger and not the actual message. The weakest response to any argument is to attack the messenger and not respond to the actual points in the message. One reason why folks will attack the messenger is because they can come up with no valid argument against the actual message.
The message is the following. The SPX is going to 1150. Every index and measure of the market is breaking down. The only thing propping up the market is a few leading stocks and if anything happens to them then the market will fall fast and furiously.
The facts are the following:
1) The market is a giant staircase in which it runs in 15-20 year cycles. The market will run straight up for 15-20 years and then follows a consolidation period of 15-20 years. We are only 7 years into the consolidation period. If the SPX were to break through the 1550-1600 level then it will be the first time that the chain of events will be broken.
2) The ten year yield has no place to go but up. It will of course pullback from time to time, but the general course is up up up. We are no longer living in a sub-5% TNX environment.
3) Oil has no place to go but up. A floor has been placed underneath the price. Say goodbye to sub-70 dollar oil and triple digits will be seen in the future.
In looking at the 20 year chart of the SPX from 1980 to 2000, it appears much like Apple computer the last few years. The index went straight up without looking back. That my friends is a true bull market. Cheap energy, downtrending TNX, low inflation.
Now we are in an environment much like the 70s where the SPX will run up to the line and then retreat like a bunch of Iraqi soldiers during the initial invasion. Of course there will be money to be made, but only by those who recognize what is going on.
Therefore the SPX will retreat back to 1150 before moving forward to 1550 once again. This wont happen in 2 years, but in the months to follow and by the end of this year we will be wondering what in the hell happened.
The volume on the SPX in June hit an all time record. There was only one up week in June, only one weekly bar of green while the rest was red. So I ask you, when there is a high volume sell on a chart, what do you think and believe will happen next?
Consider this, despite a record of volume on the SPX, it still failed to go through the all important 1550 barrier. Instead it pulled back and is now making lower highs and lower lows.
Now I want to hear the arguments that attack my message, but I feel I will only receive personal attacks and jabs. What are the reasons as to why the SPX will now break through the all important 1550?
The message is the following. The SPX is going to 1150. Every index and measure of the market is breaking down. The only thing propping up the market is a few leading stocks and if anything happens to them then the market will fall fast and furiously.
The facts are the following:
1) The market is a giant staircase in which it runs in 15-20 year cycles. The market will run straight up for 15-20 years and then follows a consolidation period of 15-20 years. We are only 7 years into the consolidation period. If the SPX were to break through the 1550-1600 level then it will be the first time that the chain of events will be broken.
2) The ten year yield has no place to go but up. It will of course pullback from time to time, but the general course is up up up. We are no longer living in a sub-5% TNX environment.
3) Oil has no place to go but up. A floor has been placed underneath the price. Say goodbye to sub-70 dollar oil and triple digits will be seen in the future.
In looking at the 20 year chart of the SPX from 1980 to 2000, it appears much like Apple computer the last few years. The index went straight up without looking back. That my friends is a true bull market. Cheap energy, downtrending TNX, low inflation.
Now we are in an environment much like the 70s where the SPX will run up to the line and then retreat like a bunch of Iraqi soldiers during the initial invasion. Of course there will be money to be made, but only by those who recognize what is going on.
Therefore the SPX will retreat back to 1150 before moving forward to 1550 once again. This wont happen in 2 years, but in the months to follow and by the end of this year we will be wondering what in the hell happened.
The volume on the SPX in June hit an all time record. There was only one up week in June, only one weekly bar of green while the rest was red. So I ask you, when there is a high volume sell on a chart, what do you think and believe will happen next?
Consider this, despite a record of volume on the SPX, it still failed to go through the all important 1550 barrier. Instead it pulled back and is now making lower highs and lower lows.
Now I want to hear the arguments that attack my message, but I feel I will only receive personal attacks and jabs. What are the reasons as to why the SPX will now break through the all important 1550?
