Bear thesis looks fkd for tomorrow

vincentnyc said:
5/23/22....what a beautiful day to short the stonk market today!
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You nailed the bottom of a 60 point RIP higher
Nicely done. And they say ET cant make you money

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KCalhoun said:
Thx re article.... right re cash is king into weekends usually. I didn't see the daily hammer Fri in S&P or I'd have been mostly flat vs short.

At least I know how to trade bear market rallies. .. eg fade on day 3, Wednesday.

One thing I learned, and it holds most of the time, is don't sell premkt gaps down in inverses, unless they keep going down >.4 after 7am.... and don't buy gaps up.

Great idea re long futs hedge, if trend continues I would. .. but I'm not a futs trader, yet, so don't have account. On my to do list soon is open a futs account so I can feed my trading obsession during even more hours lol.
But seriously I think that markets will sell hard this hear and I need to learn futs (not es tick scalping, more intraday swing approach) to capitalize on the drop, and as a plan b in case finra limits inverses
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%%
TQQQ was a good daytrade, i never had time to buy it;
SPXL or UPRO also.......................
I was trying to buy FNGU, but it never went up enough\
as of lunchtime\ bear trends still looks good..................... SPY could close up a bit today\if it closes @ lunch levels i may not buy SPXL, SPXU. But like jim Cramer says, always a bull market somewhere\if we cant find that one /LOL always a good downtrend somewhere. TGT+ FB downticking. TGT downtrending good again.
 
zdreg said:
If you flip a coin 7 heads in a row does that change the odds on the 8th flip? Only amateurish thinking would think it does.
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Coin flips are independent events. Market movements are dependent partially upon state (sentiment, positioning, psychology, geopolitical, etc). For those who carry positions overnight, what I do today depends partially on how I am positioned coming into today -- state established in the past.
 
today 5/23/22 is my first time in a very long time buying and holding uvxy overnight for going long. it is a small holding...we will see what tomorrow will bring...
 
I went long shortly after the open. My reasoning was with the Euro, Pound, AUD going up so much there was a high probability of a equity rally.

Looks like with USD dropping 3% now in a week or so it could be the start of a global rally. I think UUP could drop down to $26.50 which is the 100-day SMA.
 
One trade I had reversed so, I exited the put and bought a call instead. I have no problems switching positions if the other side is the stronger trend. That is where the bigger gains can come from. Most of my positions going the way I expect them to so, staying put.
 
nitrene said:
I went long shortly after the open. My reasoning was with the Euro, Pound, AUD going up so much there was a high probability of a equity rally.

Looks like with USD dropping 3% now in a week or so it could be the start of a global rally. I think UUP could drop down to $26.50 which is the 100-day SMA.
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i think you maybe right...first time for me holding uvxy overnight in a very long time...should had gone thru my trading journal. based on my stats of holding uvxy overnight for going long, my winning rate was 30%...oh well...have to take a L on this bet...very minor lost. we will see tomorrow...
 
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