Bear thesis looks fkd for tomorrow

[ET180]

In this volatile and unpredictable market I’d only day trade.

Or trade option spreads. Go counter trend on extreme moves only and keep size very light.

 

[vanzandt]

Noted, Nostradamus. If you're wrong expect this thread to be revived. For the record, your billionaire buddies were buying garbage hand over foot until 5 months ago.

Hey, all things being equal, I'd agree in a heartbeat, but things aren't what they were 5 months ago, not even close.

Everything has changed, and it appears to be getting worse. That's why I said the level has reset. No Nostradamus required. You just don't fight the Fed, ignore an impending recession, and last but not least, ignore the very real possibility of $8/gallon unleaded and $10/gallon diesel.

Other than that... yes, these algo's fight each other on the way up the same way they do on the way down. It's just every now and then my "billionaire buddies" need to reposition the battleground a little. This is one of those times.

That said, if we get anywhere's close to the all-time highs... by all means... feel free to revive away and I'll eat my hat. Unless Putin dies. Then all bets off. But sell that news too... about 3-4 days after it happens.

 

[MKTrader]

Hey, all things being equal, I'd agree in a heartbeat, but things aren't what they were 5 months ago, not even close.

Everything has changed, and it appears to be getting worse. That's why I said the level has reset. No Nostradamus required. You just don't fight the Fed, ignore an impending recession, and last but not least, ignore the very real possibility of $8/gallon unleaded and $10/gallon diesel.

Other than that... yes, these algo's fight each other on the way up the same way they do on the way down. It's just every now and then my "billionaire buddies" need to reposition the battleground a little. This is one of those times.

That said, if we get anywhere's close to the all-time highs... by all means... feel free to revive away and I'll eat my hat. Unless Putin dies. Then all bets off. But sell that news too... about 3-4 days after it happens.

Fair response, though Putin has little to do with this. Energy prices were already soaring for a little over a year before Russia-Ukraine started. Cancelling pipelines, not renewing oil/gas leases and other forms of domestic energy terrorism have consequences.

 

[zdreg]

But after 7 straight down weeks, 8 for the Dow,

If you flip a coin 7 heads in a row does that change the odds on the 8th flip? Only amateurish thinking would think it does.

 

[KCalhoun]

cant sleep, would b epic if SPY keeps dropping

 

[nitrene]

NQ just lost 170 points in a little over 2 hours. Below 11850 means down to 11640.

I still don't know who would buy this overnight. Its not like the Asian markets were doing that well overnight. June K200 was up 0.23%, N225 is down so is the HSI.

 

[formikatrading]

Look at the VIX on daily time frame for past 4 weeks.

Right, I missed the Friday hammer... doh!

 

[Scataphagos]

There is simply no fundamental reason to buy this market

Other than short-term trades... 3 major reasons to own equities.

1. Favorable P/E (value)
2. Expected growth... economic outlook supports
3. Fed juicing

None of those on the front burner at this time...

 

[vincentnyc]

5/23/22....what a beautiful day to short the stonk market today!

 

[xandman]

Interesting thread. I am seeing ET vets focus on a narrow time frame, collectively. No butting heads on direction, though.

Are we about to get a massive break out? There is a group think convergence going on. May have to cut out ET for a few days.