Bear thesis looks fkd for tomorrow

[rickf]

Doubt it will stay green for long. There is simply no fundamental reason to buy this market especially the QQQ. Last Friday the NQ futures went from +1.6% to -2.4% in about 5 hours. There hasn't been a sustained rally of more than 3 days in quite a while. I'm short 1 NQ contract but I have some OTM QQQ weekly calls.

With the Fed's magic wand back in the toolchest, IMO there's not much funny-money helicopter hopium to keep markets aloft as it has over the past ... 15 years or so. Ergo, my 'bias' is to the downside, which means I read any rally or bounce as something not to be trusted.

 

[Country Roads]

Isn't it about time for a short covering rally?!

 

[KGTrader4]

I sold my inverse (QID) on Friday afternoon, and put a bunch into SPY and QQQ. Not saying that’s smart. Just saying I did it. Maybe I get lucky, I’d probably sell if we opened higher.
But after 7 straight down weeks, 8 for the Dow, I’d be hesitant to be short right now. But yeah, no matter what happens this week, seems we go lower from here a month from now.

with all that said, don’t count your losses Ken. We all know Sunday night futures mean less than nothing,

 

[JackMorgan]

Congrats for all those that caught the generational loe

 

[formikatrading]

You got a little too close to the fire -- zoom out and look at the daily.

Unless futs flip red, I'm gonna be in trouble tomorrow morning, went somewhat heavy inverses Fri. (24k worth). I'm up 4k the last 2 weeks, will prolly fck me 1k or more in the am.

Grr bad bear sigh... I hate giving back profits. Part of the game. Anyone else, eg puts/shorts/inverses feeling the pain? Dow futs >200. Hoping for a flip red by am. Likely not gonna happen

If we do get a bear mkt rally that goes into regular session I'll play SOXL and morning gappers

Good luck all

 

[KCalhoun]

You got a little too close to the fire -- zoom out and look at the daily.

Right, I missed the Friday hammer... doh!

 

[nillionaire]

But after 7 straight down weeks, 8 for the Dow, I’d be hesitant to be short right now.

Agree. Coming up on a holiday, I expect this week and/or next week to be green.

 

[smallfil]

Setting up the pajama traders for a big loss imo.
Waaay to obvious of a trade.
Nothing's changed.
And when Powell said .75% wasn't on the table, he didn't say boo about 1.00%.
I say that jokingly, but still, nothing has changed.
Unless the powers that be know something about Putin's health we don't.

Watch what happens to the price of gasoline and diesel as China awakes.
Pfff. 8% inflation will be "the good ol' days".
The show's just getting started.
New lows are on the way.

Jerome Powell is a joke when official inflation is at 8.5%, he says their 0.5% interest rate hike is supposed to magically, drop inflation lower? You have oil and commodities still going up. Everyone is going to need oil and commodities and there are massive shortages of baby formula. CSCO cannot even get its parts due the supply chain problems. Yeah, everything is hunky dory. Add to that, hacks on cable tv saying that the stockmarket has reach capitulation. The sheep is being led to slaughter.

 

[vanzandt]

Jerome Powell is a joke when official inflation is at 8.5%, he says their 0.5% interest rate hike is supposed to magically, drop inflation lower? You have oil and commodities still going up. Everyone is going to need oil and commodities and there are massive shortages of baby formula. Yeah, everything is hunky dory. Add to that, hacks on cable tv saying that the stockmarket has reach capitulation. Okay, if you say so guys.

We are soooo far away from capitulation.
Look at the volume spikes in 2007 and early 2008.
Then look at now.
This market is awash in funny money still.

The only thing that can save us now is if Putin goes tits up.
And even then... sell the news.

 

[vincentnyc]

I’m ready come Monday morning….spy can fade back down and I’m ready short the stonk market.