Bear thesis looks fkd for tomorrow

KCalhoun

KCalhoun

Unless futs flip red, I'm gonna be in trouble tomorrow morning, went somewhat heavy inverses Fri. (24k worth). I'm up 4k the last 2 weeks, will prolly fck me 1k or more in the am.

Grr bad bear sigh... I hate giving back profits. Part of the game. Anyone else, eg puts/shorts/inverses feeling the pain? Dow futs >200. Hoping for a flip red by am. Likely not gonna happen

If we do get a bear mkt rally that goes into regular session I'll play SOXL and morning gappers

Good luck all
 
KCalhoun said:
Unless futs flip red, I'm gonna be in trouble tomorrow morning, went somewhat heavy inverses Fri. (24k worth). I'm up 4k the last 2 weeks, will prolly fck me 1k or more in the am.

Grr bad bear sigh... I hate giving back profits. Part of the game. Anyone else, eg puts/shorts/inverses feeling the pain? Dow futs >200. Hoping for a flip red by am. Likely not gonna happen

If we do get a bear mkt rally that goes into regular session I'll play SOXL and morning gappers

Good luck all
More...
Too obvious of a trade.
S&P is @ 3945
Short the farm at 4030
Doubt it will get there
 
Setting up the pajama traders for a big loss imo.
Waaay to obvious of a trade.
Nothing's changed.
And when Powell said .75% wasn't on the table, he didn't say boo about 1.00%.
I say that jokingly, but still, nothing has changed.
Unless the powers that be know something about Putin's health we don't.

Watch what happens to the price of gasoline and diesel as China awakes.
Pfff. 8% inflation will be "the good ol' days".
The show's just getting started.
New lows are on the way.
 
Good luck Ken....I feel your pain! Would you be able to offset that potential loss via being long some futures tonight?

FWIW saying, one thing i learned the hard way during the GFC was to be flat over the weekends ... the market actions and swings right now are kind of feeling like those days to me .... so if I was trading actively these days, I'd be flat at the Friday close -- if not even overnight during the week. (nb I'm not being disrespectful or critical here, just saying what I'd be doing.)

BTW nice column on BB+VIX this month! :)
 
Overnight futures is a scam traded to perceived correlations with world markets and overnight bonds.

The machines can take it to any price and paint any pattern that can draw you in. Having such low liquidity, the dominant market maker can count the cards (net positions) and run the price to everybody's technical choke point. Once you see exhaustion, the harvester machine begins its new crop pattern.

The real price setting mechanism is the opening/closing activity in the underlying on RTD.
 
rickf said:
Good luck Ken....I feel your pain! Would you be able to offset that potential loss via being long some futures tonight?

FWIW saying, one thing i learned the hard way during the GFC was to be flat over the weekends ... the market actions and swings right now are kind of feeling like those days to me .... so if I was trading actively these days, I'd be flat at the Friday close -- if not even overnight during the week. (nb I'm not being disrespectful or critical here, just saying what I'd be doing.)

BTW nice column on BB+VIX this month! :)
More...

Thx re article.... right re cash is king into weekends usually. I didn't see the daily hammer Fri in S&P or I'd have been mostly flat vs short.

At least I know how to trade bear market rallies. .. eg fade on day 3, Wednesday.

One thing I learned, and it holds most of the time, is don't sell premkt gaps down in inverses, unless they keep going down >.4 after 7am.... and don't buy gaps up.

Great idea re long futs hedge, if trend continues I would. .. but I'm not a futs trader, yet, so don't have account. On my to do list soon is open a futs account so I can feed my trading obsession during even more hours lol.

But seriously I think that markets will sell hard this hear and I need to learn futs (not es tick scalping, more intraday swing approach) to capitalize on the drop, and as a plan b in case finra limits inverses
 
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Doubt it will stay green for long. There is simply no fundamental reason to buy this market especially the QQQ. Last Friday the NQ futures went from +1.6% to -2.4% in about 5 hours. There hasn't been a sustained rally of more than 3 days in quite a while. I'm short 1 NQ contract but I have some OTM QQQ weekly calls.
 
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