Bear mkt ? Lol . Dow down 9.5% and s@p down 13.5%

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SammyJ

S@P averaged around 24% a yr returns in 2019,20 and 21 . We have the 10 yr bond up 10 fold ( .3 ish to 3%) , inflation at 8% , earnings tumbling ,a war causing chaos on supply’s and gas near $6 in places . Yet coming off one of the most overvalued mkts ever and the next yr were hardly down . All that’s happened is they took a little air out of massively overvalued big techs and slaughtered unprofitable techs . Oh and fed draining liquidity. It’s tough for people to give up the stock dream that’s been going full mode for 30 yrs .
 
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I do agree all the economic underpinnings point to a market crash. Still, here we are like everything is hunky dory. This stockmarket will continue to go higher as long as there are buyers stepping in to buy at these levels. There is a suggestion by just one You Tube blogger that the Federal Reserve is keeping share prices up by buying stock. I do not know how true that is but, they have the most monies. They can just print monies out of thin air. Just analyze the stockcharts and trade from there. That is the smartest course. The stockmarket can be irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Do not fight the tape.
 
This is the bear market of 2000/2002.

S&P high was a bit over 1550 in March 2000.
S&P was still trading as high as 1430 in early November 2000.

So down only 8% after seven months after rallying from a low of 1300 a few weeks earlier.

In mid 2000 there seems to have been six down weeks in row, followed by 3 up weeks.

So this latest bear market rally we are in at the moment could still have a bit more upside.

cycle-2000-2002-bear-market-620-376.gif


The fall in Nasdaq over the period, fall was faster and more brutal with some big bear market rallies along the way down, including 3 that were over 40%:

bear-market-rally.png
 
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Calendar says the next FOMC meeting is in 9 days time, the market could continue this rally till then, or at least for most of this week.
 
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nooby_mcnoob said:
If this heads back to ATH then I'll concede
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Most Cdn energy stocks already broke 52 week highs numerous times including some on Friday. Non-IT stocks haven't really been in a bear all year ( eg TSX is down 2% ytd ). So a strategy of buying dips on any non-IT sectors and/or shorting QQQ has worked well all year. Long Canadian mid cap and junior energy has easily been the best trade all year.
 
Nine_Ender said:
Most Cdn energy stocks already broke 52 week highs numerous times including some on Friday. Non-IT stocks haven't really been in a bear all year ( eg TSX is down 2% ytd ). So a strategy of buying dips on any non-IT sectors and/or shorting QQQ has worked well all year. Long Canadian mid cap and junior energy has easily been the best trade all year.
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I believe those were the last to fall in the 2000 bear market but that's just a vague memory...
 
SammyJ said:
S@P averaged around 24% a yr returns in 2019,20 and 21 . We have the 10 yr bond up 10 fold ( .3 ish to 3%) , inflation at 8% , earnings tumbling ,a war causing chaos on supply’s and gas near $6 in places . Yet coming off one of the most overvalued mkts ever and the next yr were hardly down . All that’s happened is they took a little air out of massively overvalued big techs and slaughtered unprofitable techs . Oh and fed draining liquidity. It’s tough for people to give up the stock dream that’s been going full mode for 30 yrs .
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The market has so far seen only the silver linings and this is reflected in narratives and pricing. Inflation is high but transitory; shitcos crashed back to pre-Covid levels but the highly profitable tech generals are still holding up; Fed is tightening rapidly but their show of determination will quickly tame prices, so rates will only rise a couple hundred BP and inflation will quickly fall, then back to business as usual in a year or so.

My observation is that we haven't entered a "real" bear market where narratives and pricing are actually too bearish, and there's serious blood in the streets. Plenty of cracks around the edges to be sure, but BTC/ETH haven't lost key supports, TSLA is still at 95x PE, GME is still at 132 which is 33 times its price two years ago. There's no sign of a cleanout in the PE and VC space which was if anything even crazier than the public markets. If anything goes wrong with the extremely optimistic forecasts around Fed behavior and prices, then we're still in the second or third inning of this bear cycle.
 
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