Bear Market Rally

Upside on SPY if rally is successful

  • Sky's the limit

    Votes: 8 23.5%

  • +20%

    Votes: 8 23.5%

  • TJ' guessestimate of +10%

    Votes: 10 29.4%

  • +5%

    Votes: 4 11.8%

  • +2%

    Votes: 3 8.8%

  • Prefer not to tell, but I love TJ's threads

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • Total voters
    34
T

tradingjournals

I became bearish on VXX when it hit 48.50 area today (which is generally long SPY and bullish XIV).

What is the upside on the SPY, and on XIV if this rally succeeds?

Look up there. There is a poll. Vote before you read any further.
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

I became bearish on VXX when it hit 48.50 area today (which is generally long SPY and bullish XIV).

What is the upside on the SPY, and on XIV if this rally succeeds?

Look up there. There is a poll. Vote before you read any further.
More...
Did you finally open a real money account?

Quote from tradingjournals:
05-06-11 02:34 PM
...Now I want to try my luck on long side in paper trade.:)
More...
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=218121&perpage=30&pagenumber=6
 
It's a bull market. Sky's the limit. Why? We had one guy today who managed to make two wrong bearish calls in one day, on two different doomsday threads (...doomsday threads being to ET what syrup is to pancake).
Meantime, we closed up.
Never seen that one before. Might be a record of some sort, don't know. Definitely a sign of the bull.
 
Quote from trefoil:

It's a bull market. Sky's the limit. Why? We had one guy today who managed to make two wrong bearish calls in one day, on two different doomsday threads (...doomsday threads being to ET what syrup is to pancake).
Meantime, we closed up.
Never seen that one before. Might be a record of some sort, don't know. Definitely a sign of the bull.
More...
==========
Strange but true.Greg de Jesus names his Spanish bull ''mouse''[source =yahoo.com]:D .Even stranger, locals call that a real '' bull killer ''.

Gold , GLD is still uptrending by most meaures.

True , bottom fishers have been fishing@110 on SPY;
but still looks like a bull named mouse rather than a bull named moose:D 50 dma is still down & downtrending.:cool:
 
SPY 115 Oct Straddle costs ~10.6 pricing in up to +/-9% move from the current level. +10% sounds about right.

the question is whether the rally holds. my crystal ball is a bit murky right now.

with VIX ~40, it is unlikely that we are in a bull market.
 
When the thread started, ET guys were looking for the short side. Now that they have the hindsight, I wonder if they will be more votes since their vision is now clearer.
 
I'm not making a call here, but the S&P dropped very close to 20% from peak-to-valley. Some define a 20% drop as a bear market, but often it's just a big correction. It dropped that much in 1990 (a lousy year, but it was followed by monster rally for the next 9 years) and 1998 (LTCM, etc., but S&P still managed to gain over 20% that year).

I'm not all that bullish, but technically it's hard to call this a bear if 1100 holds.
 
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