Bear Market almost ready to resume. .....

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fibo_trader said:
How many wildebeest(s) have stated unequivocally, "its a new era or its a new way of markets, or a different age?" How many Goldman Sachs gurus & FED chief Ben Bernanke & Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson unanimously said "its a new era, best business environment ever, a whole new ballgame bla bla in 2008 before the crash started Oct 2007?

They all have one thing in common. They are DEAD with survivors looking as if they've been brutalized by a Sigmoidoscopy and Colonoscopy.


Volpri, here is what your Gods said. Young Fibo, full of juice and verve fcked 'em all by going it alone. Game to Fibo.


Morgan Stanley's other famous Hi-So gurus and fiends, Ben Bernanke & Henry Paulson (= Treasury Secretary) from the October 2007pre-CRASH top and their legendary anal-ysis:

June 20th, 2007 – Bernanke: The mortgage debacle “will not affect the economy overall.''
July 12th, 2007 –Paulson: "This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime."
August 1st, 2007 – Paulson: "I see the underlying economy as being very healthy,"
October 15th, 2007 –Bernanke: "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - nor would it be appropriate - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."
May 7, 2008 – Paulson: 'The worst is likely to be behind us . . . . ”
May 16th, 2008 – Paulson:"In my judgment, we are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning."
July 16th, 2008 – Bernanke: On Freddie and Fannie: “They will make it through the storm”, "… in no danger of failing.","…adequately capitalized"
Only two months later both were nationalized.
February 14th, 2008 – Paulson: (the economy) "is fundamentally strong, diverse and resilient."
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You listening to the wrong wippersnappers. Mr T is da man......
 
fibo_trader said:
So, before we proceed with this magnificent disussion, pls do this:

wavelength relationship between the waves you mentioned.

I'll give you one for starters. ..........


Fib Exp or projection 2000 top to 2003 low to 2007/top gives 100% for SPX, 161.8% for Dow Jones, 161.8% for Dow Transports and dig this, nobody in the friggin Universe would catch this on Nasdaq Comp. .... they would be expecting a hit at 61.8% but the hit came at her sister, 38.2%. Just sheer poetry to me.

OK, pls proceed
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Well, my mistake, for such a long-term charts it is better to apply Log Scaling for the price axis; then the Wave-d and the whole thing looks more normal. And the fibo relations will also change.

As for the other indecies, Dow, NQ, Transports - they all are a partial representation of the broader market, it's normal to differ. As Wave Theory relies on mass psychology, I believe SPX is the best.

The Wave Theory constantly evolves, as markets do. Fibos are only part of the toolbox.

Forecasting (what Wave Theory is) is not particularly good money maker. Even the best wave theorists I've found in 10 years constantly change their short-term outlook and rely on other techniques for proper entries and exits, using options to profit from non-trending market phases, etc. Not talking about EWI, they suck to the bone. That's what I've found.
 
Please, slow down... so you apply these Fibonacci ratios to price within a swing high and low? And use these arbitrary px levels to go long or short? Sometimes you extrapolate with these ratio beyond where px has traded?!

This is arbitrage. Does anyone else know about this?
 
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destriero said:
THIS was THE call: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-spx-has-hit-a-cyclical-top.325108/
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That was a great call.
I saw B1S2 calling Fibo here "Rennick". I had to look him up. First... this Fibo is not Rennick. That guy was respected here from what I could tell. Boisterous, but intelligent. I was reading some of his calls last night from 2007. He called (warned of) that top a few months in advance. That was an epic call. One for the ages.

Fibs is no Rennick.

Pretty funny, there was a thread where somebody posed as his grandson and spoofed his death... complete with a newspaper clipping. Even Baron was extremely upset and wrote a great post memorializing him and his contributions to ET.
Then the guy comes back and says he's alive. Too funny.
He must have been a real character.
 
fibo_trader said:
You ask, what BEAR? :). :)
Why of course its THE BEAR that was signalled by DOW THEORY in mid December, the oldest and most successful PurePrice Action TA which has stood the test of time for decades.
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For trading cultists who predicted a bear market last December, 2000 years ago they predicted the imminent return of the messiah, they're still waiting.
 
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Okay so first of all how is this thread 84 PAGES? LOL

Regardless, there are some legit catalysts out there in the near term which may finally turn this into a seller's market:

1. Trade deal euphoria/sell the news (deal is so bad that it is completely below market expectations, i.e. tariffs are still imposed until compliance, no budging on protection of IP)
2. No deal Brexit
3. Euro Recession
4. Chinese credit bubble (ever tried to fill a leaking bucket with more water?)
5. U.S. Homebuilder/Auto recession (Y/Y growth is already negative)
6. EPS growth flat. (Forward SPX, NQ P/E is the same as spot)
7. Risk free rate is same as earnings yield of NQ, with the latter decreasing.

Unless buyers somehow pull a royal flush and none of the 7 things above happen, this market is definitely more risky than it was 1-2 years ago. Legit, healthy recoveries from the bottom are NOT accompanied by inverted yield curves (bondsman know best!), in 2003, 2009, 2016, recoveries were all in the context of the YC in full "cotango".

Good luck to all.
 
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