Bear market ahead and 14 more years of range trading? The next weeks will show!

Quote from vhehn:

based on what?
More...

Been building a system for the Last 4 years...
I think stay out would a better chice then Longing the dow...
Most likley QQQQ would touch 35 area...
I expect even Lower to 30..
I think the rally is finished...
But Might wanna Long nvax at MKT and LUB @ MKT...while beeing away from the dow + Nasdaq
the risk on the upside is way Higher then the down side
GL
KaL
 
Quote from Pabst:

Nice job Riskmanager. Of course we all know there's infinite ways of getting from A-B, but I see some future scenarios derived from a historical basis as well.

For one the modern market has been the tale of multiple indices. "Classical" analysis has of course focused on the Dow Jones Industrials with Dow theory incorporating the antiquated Transportation and Utility averages. Now days the "benchmark" for the majority of mutual funds is the S&P 500 and the popularity in the last couple of decades of narrower indices like those developed by the NASDAQ and Russell have fragmented performance standards into a myriad of ETF's, sub- industry groups and derivatives. All of this begs the question of macro technicians, Is there a total market? I'd say each index is it's own animal and for those who don't agree, I'd ask how a long Tech short Blue Chip spread fared from spring of 2000 through spring 2001.
More...

That's an intersting theory, that there is no total market. I'll think that through in more depth within the coming days.
So far, I view the markets as focal points. E.g., Gold will play an important role, once it approaches the 500 resistance.

A few years ago, I traded a kind of intraday arbitrage strategy. I would chart DOW, S&P & NASDAQ Comp. & 100, and often would find out that they'd form technical points during similar times. E.g., a symmetrical triangle in the DOW would be accompanied by a rising triangle in the NASDAQ 100. Tests of the break out barriers would happen nearly simultaneously. If I focused on the leading index and if it broke out on strength, I had ~5-10 seconds time left to open a position in the following index. Relatively low risky trades.

Well, a few weeks ago, I noticed that the current bull market started, when the NASDAQ broke through it's previous relative high. DOW & S&P followed with strength, but didn't offer important technical clues.


In short, I also see an uncanny resemblance as you do Riskmanager between present market action and the mid 1960's to 1983 DIA. The 2000-2003 correction in the Dow was not an "epic" event as was the 1929 crash. Throughout the 1970's we had several 30-40% pullbacks much like we saw in the Dow earlier this decade.
More...

Well, the question I ask myself is: what should fuel the next Kondratieff cycle? The past one was powered by the IT-Revolution. What are the next Microsofts, Apple's, Dell's supposed to be? Google? I don't think so.


HOWEVER the NASDAQ is a completely different story. It's parallels to the 1920's bull and the 1929-1932 "crash" are striking both in terms of actual percentage moves and time duration of cycles. If the NASDAQ were to continue running to form vs. the 1932-1937 DIA we could see the either the Comp or the 100's rally to around 2500. Obviously there's been a HUGE divergence since 3/2000 between the NazComp and the Naz100 so it's difficult to even figure out what's the real tech benchmark?

In summary, my best opinion is that NDX will vastly outperform DIA and to a lesser degree SPX over the next year. Perhaps one should trade DIA like we're in stuck in the seventies and trade NDX like we're in the mid 1930's.
More...

Well, I'll stay sceptical, but trade long&short nonetheless.

I don't like the rising yields, and think that a slowing in US consumer spending is the biggest looming threat. And since rates are rising, I don't think this is event is impossible to happen soon.

And here's an interesting recent analysis:
MARKET BECOMING OVERBOUGHT IN ALL TIME FRAMES

Cheers!
 
Quote from kalzayani:

Been building a system for the Last 4 years...
I think stay out would a better chice then Longing the dow...
Most likley QQQQ would touch 35 area...
KaL
More...

i ask again. based on what?
 
msft is challenging these days for me and I am Many TAs
Weekly is a buy daily is a sell...
I think results into side...not for too Long I think..maybe two weeks..
I get this sometimes..sort of conflict of Waves...

Rep: It's Based on non Linear estimation methods..
GL
KAL
 
Quote from kalzayani:

msft is challenging these days for me and I am Many TAs
Weekly is a buy daily is a sell...
I think results into side...not for too Long I think..maybe two weeks..
I get this sometimes..sort of conflict of Waves...

Rep: It's Based on non Linear estimation methods..
GL
KAL
More...

I got CSCO as sell as well..Target 14.5 with 4-5 weeks
 
Got ebay as sell too...
Target 30 within 5 weeks or so

someone mentined wmt as Buy...I just don't see it that way...
any comments please..TIA
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top