Be honest, in 2003, were you certain the market had hit a "bottom"

[Nodav]

In 2003, were you certain that the bottom was in?

 

[drukes1234]

If people were so sure the bottom was in then the market would not be at lows. Obviously the vast majority thought we were going lower or we wouldn't be trading at lows, fairly simple supply and demand.

 

[Hook N. Sinker]

From my files.

This is the price graph of SPY, the Standard and Poors 500 index tracking stock from March 2003.

 

[Hook N. Sinker]

I recall studying the Indian and Chinese economies about January 2003. I remember labor costs in both countries averaging about US $ 2 / day although there was a substantial range of values. I recall interpreting the stock market index curves very differently. The attached chart shows the Chinese fund values increasing but the Indian fund values decreasing or in a trading range. I remember choosing to speculate in Chinese stocks in part because of this graph.

 

[Hook N. Sinker]

I remember another thing happening during the spring of year 2003. I recall bank stocks rallying to new record high prices but I did not know why. Today I might say the reason for the rally was the real estate boom and the mortgage business boom, but I wasn't smart enough to figure it out at the time. A trend follower does not need to know the reason for price changes.