Quote from ^^^^^^:
I especially like this quote from an ongoing Hershey inspired fantasy:
"Spotted the FTT at 09:45, no problem, but completely lost the plot after 10:20. Every FTT seemed to fizzle out, which in hindsight turned out to be a very volatile LTR traverse. The 5 min seemed âtoo coarseâ due to the high volatility, and I ended up widening my long channel 5 times. I found the Gaussians to be particularly difficult to follow. After each FTT I saw a BO of the current RTL but then b2b reappeared. Again with hindsight this looks very clear but it seemed highly confusing at the time."
The Hershey fantasy is that losing trades are called "mistakes" and with enough whatever they will eventually be eliminated. Objective reality dictates that uncertainty is always present in trading. Identical looking situations with respect to similar "data sets" ,as JH terms them, will not always produce the same result. In a binary activity,i.e., win/lose,in/out,long/short this shortcoming must be dealt with by resorting to probabilities. Probabilities are something which Hershey denies. He asserts that the market can be known with certainty. New traders seem to agree. Seasoned traders know better. Another chasm not to be bridged by US to THEM.
My comments on the way two people are looking at the same thing.
One is seasoned and the other is new.
The subject is NOW.
The seasoned approach is probabilities related to binary activity; the new approach is taking data sets.
Seasoned takes yes/no data or present/absent data.
New takes vector data (magnitude and direction) in sets by looking over a display.
Seasoned is using probabilites to trade (enter and exit) when the odds are best.
New is in the market all the time and taking segments of profits by holding and reversing.
Seasoned makes money as he enters and holds and exits. He makes an amount that continually improves with seasoning.
New is making mistakes, a term that means he does something and later finds out it is wrong. The consequence of being wrong is that if it is a hold, then he starts to lose because the market has changed sides and he is losing money. He reversed and begins to make money again. If it is a reversal, he just makes money until he sees the reversal direction has stopped and he needs to reverse again and get back on the right side of the market.*
Season debriefs and sees he has made an amount of money for the day and he uses this as a standard of performance. He checks the P and L thread and sees he is doing quite well because he is maiking as much as others. He does not know what new is making or he does know because new is paper trading at this point.
New debriefs and finds out in retroscect what he thought was going on was going on. His data sets were correct and he didn't do too well as he took the data sets. He isn't making the money he sees is there and he sees he needs to do better.
New is supposed to trade ftt's. He is supposed to reverse on FTT's. Each one he sees is the beginning of a LTR traverse. Everyone he sees moves price and at some point it completes the move. The Gaussians (volume formations) are hard to keep coordinated with the price movements and after 35 minutes he is out of whack.
New is working, new has all the pieces, new knows what the pieces do, new can debrief and confirm all that happened.
New cannot, as yet, get all the pieces to fit together in real time. New knows that he is working along with others who are putting the pieces together. New makes a report on what he did as a way of letting his helpers know where he is.
Seasoned is ready for another day. Seasoned will get the job done again.
New has debriefed, gotten some comments (I am speculating since it is not here in this thread) and new is going to work at it again during RTH's. His object is to reverse on an FTT and hold until the next FTT. This is swing trading from one FTT to the next and being long, then short, then long, then short all during the day.
What new is doing, in my view, is working on a learning process.
What seasoned is doing, is trading and making money.
Seasoned sees new as a person involved in a fantasy. New doesn't even look at seasoned, I suspect.
Seasoned has a standard of performance which is his performance and it is a similar performance to others who are posting in the P and L thread.
New has about 8 months of a learning process to do to get 6 levels of SCT trading into his knowledge, skills and experience trading base or foundation. It deals with the market's operation, his sharing responsibilities with the market, putting the pieces together and making money. The SCT modus was described in the beginning of this thread.
Seasoned is operating in the realm of objective reality.
New is said to be doing a fantasy of another person's creation.
Take a look at some of the others who are posting here as seasoned traders. They are entitled to comment on the performance of anyone they chose. They have standards and they have credibility because they post in the P and L thread and meet the common standard of traders.
How do things look from the point of view of perople who are full time traders who are using some or part of SCT? Most of them are not commenting on the performance of the seasoned traders who are performing in ET at the standard recorded on the P and L record now in its second year.
Anyone can chose to spend the time new is spanding learning SCT. As the months go by, new will get somewhere by doing the work process.
At some point what makes this a fantasy and "unbelievable" may change in character as observed by ET members. It may be thata person will be doing the work and he will chose to comment on how it is going for him.
For example, you may notice that I do not post at certain times. I happen to be dealing with stuff that lets me see prints and I do deal with a bunch of Q's and I do get to run through a group debriefing.
The quid pro quo has a caveat. These persons have to invest profits by adding contracts. They are not seasoned; they are in transition. They do have to harvest on Friday's, when appropriate.
In 2007 a lot of things will pan out for a lot of people.
The seasoned people will get to see how the learning progression for SCT works. The PVT will go to expert as well.
Some people will be able to observe the transference of the PVT and SCT from one group of people to another group. As it is now, that has happened among the participants in a variety of non ET settings.
Seasoned people are using the tradional orthodoxy and are deply invested in its perfomance and efficacy. That is the way it will always be. They are very correct about how it all works and performs for them.
The pervasive standard that they apply to everything is super. I added 6 to 8 other alternatives as searches and two others provided additional approaches that exceed the 3x money velocity level. So now there are over 10 approaches available to anyone. The BE level posted is running at 7X.
*Trading from FTT to FTT has an effectiveness and efficiency factor. If you miss the timing, you can correct it when you find out you missed. The most common effect is being premature; the consequence is making a correction. On the next higher level where traverses are done within FTT's, the person is actually taking these premature lower level actions as a part of the method. Ultimately three levels of trading and trading within trading are going on.
