I'd guess if SPX trades -50 the odds of a GLOBAL ease are a VERY HIGH probability. Could be at lunch time. I doubt CB's will allow assets to meltdown this afternoon without taking a stab at a coordinated action. Doubt it'll macro work but I'd rather not be caught in it....
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Be Careful With Shorts:Global Ease Possible
- Thread starter Pa(b)st Prime
- Start date
Quote from Daal:
I'm not so sure. when was the last time this happened?I dont think it ever did, central bankers seem to have big egos, they dont seem to like to be told what to do. If an expert were handicapping this he would surely put at odds at pretty low levels.
Take a look at 1/3/01. That could be todays fractal.
About a million other investors are waiting for the global easing to push the eject button on their portfolios. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me, fool me 3 times, 4 times, 5 times, 6 times and I am the dumbest trader on the planet.
Everyone will sell that blip of a rally we'll get on a rate cut. Only lower prices will stop the slide, when the values become so clear that people don't want to sell anymore and value buyers come in droves. We're not there yet, but getting there.
Everyone will sell that blip of a rally we'll get on a rate cut. Only lower prices will stop the slide, when the values become so clear that people don't want to sell anymore and value buyers come in droves. We're not there yet, but getting there.
Quote from kxvid:
Nothing can save the market. Average people who have seen their seen their portfolios go down 25% do not respond to "eases". They will sell anyway, there is just too much fear, especially with the dow cracking 10k.
Concur. Mutual fund liquidation in retirement portfolios is coming. Starts at noon today when they get a chance to check what's going on, continues through tomorrow. Without intervention we close -500 without fail.
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
I'd guess if SPX trades -50 the odds of a GLOBAL ease are a VERY HIGH probability. Could be at lunch time. I doubt CB's will allow assets to meltdown this afternoon without taking a stab at a coordinated action. Doubt it'll macro work but I'd rather not be caught in it....
I think we could well see co-ordinated cuts in the next 48 hours. I'm long but not for this reason - it just strikes me as a free kicker to an already reasonable trade.
The situation has changed between 2006 to 2008 from an inflation problem to a deflation problem. This gives global central banks the option of cutting rates and infusing abundant liquidity, which is very good for stocks given inflation is not an issue anymore.