Be afraid of blogs, be very afraid...

Let me throw this post back on topic. I just read a statement that is the perfect example of "double talk". Most oftentimes a good blogger or money manager, the ones you see on CNBC, are masters of double talk. They never ever make a solid firm statement without any hedging in their words. They will never come out later and tell everyone that "hey I was wrong". Being wrong is not what their clients want to hear. So they choose their words wisely hedging in their speech so they can bow out later.

Here is a perfect example of double talk:

"I am cautiously near-term bullish"

If the market goes up from here, then they can say they were right because they made the bull call.

If the market goes lower from here, then they can say they were right because they did say they were cautious and only bullish for the "near-term".

If the market moves up for a few days, then goes lower then they can say they were right because they predicted it for the "near-term" only.


So whatever happens, they are covered from all angles. Why dont these people simply go belly up and shutdown eventually? They are traders and using their own money right? If they were making the wrong calls then they would disappear. Well, they are not really trading, but trying to collect donations, subscription money or money that you ask them to "manage". That is the money they live off from day to day NOT the money that they are ALLEGEDLY trading.

Many of the popular bloggers are waiting for the big whale to send them some cash. The 85 year old man who follows the blog each day and ready to give his big nestegg to them.
 
"If every institutional trader I personally know would follow your advice...every one of them would have been fired and no more xmas bonus for a job well done."

Lets talk about that for a moment. What is the actual survival rate for the "institutional traders"? Everything that I have read suggests the business is cut throat and there is indeed a high turnover rate. The trader on the floor in the Paul Tudor Jones video stated that he went broke a few times.

There were some institutional traders highlighted in a few trading magazines and other rags over the years. If you look them up now, then you will find that many are no longer in the business. They were talking about this one guy named Jeff L.(not saying his full name for privacy reasons) who worked at Citi in Traders Monthly. I looked him up and he works for some real estate company in NJ now...no longer in the business. In fact, even Traders Monthly went bankrupt. Even some of the institutions highlighted (Lehman and Bear Stearns) went bellyup.

A more popular example is Todd Harrison and his boss at Morgan Stanley. Look up Todd and the people he highlighted in his memoirs. Each one of them are no longer in the business managing money. Even Jim Cramer is no longer really managing money except for the "charitable trust". Each year there are analyst after analyst that come and go. The same names dont stay around for long. In my family, I have had a few stockbrokers, but each one of them turned away from it after being there for a few years. None survived.

So who do you know has been able to survive? My observation is that not too many people survive the business. Those who do survive and can make money get these large bonuses and for good reason. The reason is that 99% of everyone cannot survive it with only a few who seem to rake in the $$$.

Like I said in this thread, if someone here can point out a blog that will double my money then I would have no problem splitting the profits with them. However, I am not going to give anyone my cash to manage especially after listening to the Trevor cook audio in the link I posted previously. The financial industry probably has the most crooks out of any other. If 10 financial professionals were in a room then I bet 6 of them did something questionable at one time.
 
To the OP:

It is not difficult to sort through the resourses that are great and the resourses that are poor or mediocre.

You may be saying that you are personally not successful at doing this. Since you are not, you are sharing with others the hazards that may be faced by a person like you or a person of lesser skills.

It is possible to expand the topic into areas that are other than blogs and get the same range of results.

The financial industry is changing in size over time. The major reasons are that the economy is growing and the industry seems to keep concentrating the capital into the hands of relatively few instead of spreading the wealth around more and more.

From what you say, youself and those that you know are all on the "outside" looking in and you cannot gain admittance. We all empathize with you.

There is one place to look and see the potential of the opportunity. This is the better standard to use when assessing the situation as an outsider observer. Please look at the market's offer and make it the standard of comparison.

This thread pivots on a given level of performance at this point. It is well below the standard I have mentioned.

As time passes, we should probably post contemporary examples of what you are looking for. We should also accompny the examples with the criteria that has so far escaped you and your reasoning processes. As a starting point, consider this. People who can do what you want are in demand and they are protecting themsleves from people like you and your kind.

It is not uncommon for people you seek to, in fact, seek their contemporaries when they are inundated with capital offers that they cannot meld into their operations in an orderly manner.

People with capital to manage are often on the prowl for opportunities for applications of capital. You may want to join forces with this very active group to begin to learn the ropes.

There is another intermediary type group. Those that place money for fees. They service two groups, both of which are in need. They bridge a gap between managers and those who need management.

As most have pointed out to you, you aren't manageable nor are you appealling to those who could help you acquire skills and knowledge.

The time to double your capital on a beginner level is about 45 to 60 days.
For someone to manage your money for you, the time is much shorter, but you would have to do profit sharing.

To learn about all of this is a process. If you were given a daily task of searching for a specific named opportunity, in a while, you could become conscious of what is missing to you so far.

Start with Tim Morge. He hand plots his trading instruments daily. This is an example of a skilled person who does "work" and who is very successful at managing OPM. How he does it is well known to his clients; it is possible for his clients to learn from him and his public communications.

I will refute all of your OP comments by putting myeslf in your place and, over time through examples, becoma different person than you are now by doing the work to become proficient. Let me know when you get the message.

Here is place to go to; it looks like a web location

http://www.medianline.com/
 
Quote from retaildaytrader:

"If every institutional trader I personally know would follow your advice...every one of them would have been fired and no more xmas bonus for a job well done."

Lets talk about that for a moment. What is the actual survival rate for the "institutional traders"? Everything that I have read suggests the business is cut throat and there is indeed a high turnover rate...

However, I am not going to give anyone my cash to manage especially after listening to the Trevor cook audio in the link I posted previously. The financial industry probably has the most crooks out of any other. If 10 financial professionals were in a room then I bet 6 of them did something questionable at one time.
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That's a darn good question that I can't answer that about the industry as a whole involving institutional traders, floor traders ect cetera.

However, personal friends I know have 7 to 12 years amongst them as institutional traders. Yet, I've never seen nor heard any thing "cut throat" about them nor any problems that's different from any other job except for the outrageous bonus a few years prior to 2008. Then again, it was no different than the outrageous bonuses I saw in the dot com days given to folks in the internet/website business...an industry group that had a much higher turnover rate in comparison to the financial industry.

Surely you haven't forgotten the Internet Grocery business whom IPO's would go up 3 to 10 times on opening day. :cool:

By the way, you mentioned institutional traders from a magazine but I strongly believe you are confused and talking about firm traders, prop traders, arcade traders that are handling their own money. I have a few old "active trader" magazines about such. In contrast, institutional traders are salary guys.

Last of all, why were you initially looking at blogs to help you make money? Another question, how much money has blogs caused you to lose? The 3rd question...you seem to have a strong distrust of the financial industry yet you want to be a trader...that doesn't make sense or does it to you? It seems odd that you would try to use blogs based upon your strong emotion about this issue. Like I said, some folks shouldn't be trading money because they aren't suitable for such...all decided prior to the first trade. You seem to fit that category based upon your rants about blogs and those that work in the financial business while forgetting your alias name "retaildaytrader" that's just one symbol of wall street.

Heck, why you still have a trading account, investing account, still visit trading forums if you have so much distrust about the business?

P.S. If you own a bank account...you've indirectly given wall street your money even though you can still see your cash balance. You should get up early tomorrow morning and close your account before your money disappears...stolen by them crooks.

Mark
 
Quote from wrbtrader:

If every institutional trader I personally know would follow your advice...every one of them would have been fired and no more xmas bonus for a job well done. :mad:

By the way, you make too many blanket statements or take general statements from others and twist them to support your blanket statements.

Like I said before, you should find a new job and take a long vacation from EliteTrader.com

Mark
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you know the one mutual fund who outperformed all mutual funds was the mutual fund that stayed 80% cash during 2008. This was a mutual fund that broke mutual fund rules, that all cash should be invested at all times. funny eh?:p
 
Quote from failed_trad3r:

you know the one mutual fund who outperformed all mutual funds was the mutual fund that stayed 80% cash during 2008. This was a mutual fund that broke mutual fund rules, that all cash should be invested at all times. funny eh?:p
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I don't know any one that works for mutual funds. With that said, the key year you mentioned is 2008. I think any one including myself that put most of my cash on the sidelines to avoid getting taken to the cleaners that fall and slowly re-insert the cash into the market in 2009. Not sure why you would think that was funny nor do I believe that all cash should be invested at all times.

As for that one particular mutual fund breaking mutual fund rules...are you sure about that because I'm a regular viewer of videos on Bloomberg, CNNMoney.com, Forbes et cetera since they have had a website and I often see/hear fund managers say they are mostly in cash during tough market times or others say they have made dramatic allocation changes. However, that could be misleading because you have specifically used the word "mutual funds" whereas I have just mentioned "any fund".

Thus, are you sure it's breaking the rules or the norm to do such during tough economic or market times (serious question)?

Further, are you comparing investing to trading. If so, I do both. Simply, no debates there by me nor did I imply trading will always outperform an investor. Thus, there's been years where my trading has outperformed my investments and years where investing has outperformed my trading...percentage or dollar amount. Simply, I agree that an investor can outperform a trader but that greatly depends on the market conditions.

Yet, when I say investing I've included stocks, real estate (my home, condo and duplex), antique camera collection and comic book collection. My best investment occurred when I purchased my home and condo in Canada with U.S. dollar when the exchange rate was 1.61 (61% additional spending power in Canada back in the day) and the appreciation of my properties to crazy levels...levels maintained while the U.S. real estate markets crashed.

Note: I don't live in the U.S. and have properties in two different countries. Thus, my opinions about investing are not based upon what's occurred in the U.S. whereas my trading opinions is based upon what's occurring in the U.S.

With that said, the argument proposed by retaildaytrader was that traders (assuming he meant any type of trader at the time of his post) doesn't need to work every day and should only seize a few opportunities that comes their way each year.

Quote from retaildaytrader:

...This statement goes contrary to everything I have read from the most popular trading books. I believe the most successful traders out there will tell you to simply wait in cash for weeks or months until there is an obvious opportunity...

If you are working hard looking at the markets everyday then you will fail. You should only be trading when there are obvious opportunities which come once every few months if that...
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His followup reply was via specifically naming a few well known firms that went bankrupt in the U.S. However, we all know that the financial crisis had nothing to do with the institutional trading branches of those firms as he implied...it was the other branches of those firms that was the problem for the financial crisis.

By the way, there are institutional traders that only make a few trades each month...I know two particular treasury traders as such. They go to work every day looking for those few opportunities that may occur each month or several times each year. Simply, nobody has a magic 8 ball they can shake to tell them to stop going to work and show up only on a specific day at a specific time to exploit a few opportunities.

As a trader especially an institutional trader on salary...you have to go to work every day as a trader and be prepare to trade when those opportunities show up even if those opportunities only come a few times a week, month or year.

Regardless...retaildaytrader should stay away from blogs for trading opportunities and stay way from the market itself (investing or trading) because he has a strong opinion it's corrupted. Thus, go down to the bank and withdraw your money to truely be "all cash" and on the sidelines. A change in his user name is needed too :eek:

Mark
 
You Said:
"I think any one including myself that put most of my cash on the sidelines to avoid getting taken to the cleaners that fall and slowly re-insert the cash into the market in 2009."

My Reply:
Haha! A nice little plug for yourself. This thread isnt about your trading activities and your advertising is not welcome in this thread. In any event, you are not willing to provide documentation into your trading activities and as long as you dont then what you say is BULLSHIT anyway. Sorry to use such strong language, but the word bullshit is the only one that really best describes it.

Where did you *clearly and firmly* say in this forum, without double-talk or word hedges, to get out of the market in 2008 and then slowly start coming back? I know the answer to that because I have been reading this forum for a while. In early 2009, there were a few traders who correctly said that the bottom was in and to get back into the market. Mind you there were a countless number of traders in 2008 on here that also said the bottom was in persistently. Maybe the ones in 2009 were broken clocks...who knows.


You said:
"Thus, there's been years where my trading has outperformed my investments and years where investing has outperformed my trading...percentage or dollar amount....Yet, when I say investing I've included stocks, real estate (my home, condo and duplex), antique camera collection and comic book collection. My best investment occurred when I purchased my home and condo in Canada with U.S. dollar when the exchange rate was 1.61 (61% additional spending power in Canada back in the day) and the appreciation of my properties to crazy levels...levels maintained while the U.S. real estate markets crashed...Note: I don't live in the U.S. and have properties in two different countries. Thus, my opinions about investing are not based upon what's occurred in the U.S. whereas my trading opinions is based upon what's occurring in the U.S."

My reply:
I have no idea why you are plugging and advertising yourself in a thread about blogs. I guess you want to advertise yourself to us in the hopes that someone will PM you and send you some cash to manage.

First, as I said above, we dont care about your holdings. Second, you wont provide us with documentation anyway on your activities. No documentation means what you say is BULLSHIT. Third, take your advertising elsewhere.

You said:
"Regardless...retaildaytrader should stay away from blogs for trading opportunities and stay way from the market itself (investing or trading) because he has a strong opinion it's corrupted. Thus, go down to the bank and withdraw your money to truely be "all cash" and on the sidelines. A change in his user name is needed too :eek:"


My Reply:
This is where I can see your character is truly flawed. You have come to a conclusion about my character without ever meeting or having any personal experience with me.

Mark, if thats your real name, let me stop you right now in your tracks and call your game. You come on here to a thread about blogs and why? Because its a thread that is racking up lots of replies and a lot of people are viewing it. Then you make all these statements about how you are an institutional trader and that you have successfully navigated the market the last 5 years in an apparent attempt to advertise yourself. You are looking for someone to send you PMs and then make some connections...probably looking for that big whale to send you some cash to "manage".

IF you were this big time successful institutional trader then you would not be here on this message board responding to such great threads as "I, crgarcia, posted profitable real-time trades. And I challenge frequent traders!" In fact, there would be no point to call attention to yourself as it most usually creates unwanted advances by others.
 
Quote from failed_trad3r:

Looks like the chatroom didnt help alot of people. maybe they had too little moneY? :p Or maybe the 10% win rate is explained by the fact that normally theres a 90% loss rate with all daytraders and this must mean your chatroom doesnt work at all?:D
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No, the reason most failed was because they couldn't follow the plan plain and simple. For whatever reason people always want to complicate things.... make the extra trade, lower thier size at the wrong time, increase their size at the wrong time and so on and so forth. Most just don't have the discipline that is required. It has nothing to do with money.
 
Quote from failed_trad3r:

Funny how no chatroom I've ever encountered did pre-filtering and only accepted $100k+ guys. :p Guess why? Because theyre in the business of getting subscribers, not in the business of helping people trade. It doesn't matter if they help you trade, they get money anyway.

I bet if all chatrooms started rejecting sub $100k guys they would only have 10% of subscriber base left. If you have 200 people paying 100$ a month then thats a huge chunk of change gone there.
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Why can't you stay on topic?

I said the room was free in response to the fallacy that no successful trader would give away his secrets for free. Simply put, thats not true nor is the idea that there are "secrets".

So you encountered something else. Okay fine. Apparently you weren't able to discern good from bad ahead of time.
 
retaildaytrader,

You should notice my investment discussion was too failed_trad3r and not to you. Therefore, do not reply to me as if I was talking to you. The only part of that reply to fail_trader that concerned you was your quote about that traders shouldn't go to work every day and those that do will fail accordingly to you.

With that said, this reply is to you and not to failed_trad3r. I don't own a blog nor do I manage money...never will. Thus, STFU about the plug ins and advertising crap...you're acting like teenage girl. However, like I said I do read blogs and none of them have to do with TA in reply to your original assertion that all blogs are about TA, google adsense, fund managers et cetera.

Further, I said the blogs I read are by traders complaining about the markets or the economy...no TA, no google adsense and no fund managing. If that's advertising than it's poor advertising at that because I must be putting in a nice plug for those I have not named specifically. :D

By the way, you're still doing a poor job in making blanket statements to support your statements. To say I'm unwilling to provide you documentation is to say that you have requested such in prior and I said no. If that's true...please repost your message where you requested private information about my trading activities or investing activities because I sincerely missed that message by you.

Simply, this is the first time I've heard of such from you unless you're on LSD and imagine a prior conversation between us. Once again just in case your visually impaired or worst...I do not own a blog, I do not give investing advice, I do not manage money for others, I am not an institutional trader and I specifically said I know institutional traders. Whomever told you that I said something different in this thread you should fire them for poor investigation skills or you should go back to "reading comprehension" school for a refresher course.

In addition, crgarcia posted a challenge for real-time trades to be posted by ET members and I told him there's currently a specific thread where traders here at ET are already in existence in posting their real-time trades. However, I don't think he's going to go to the ES Journal thread because for some odd reason he didn't know or forgot that thread existed. Yet, lets see if he shows up to take on those guys.

Note: English is my second language but your reading skills are extremely poor for you to suggest I said "I am" an institutional trader.

Regardless, my recommendation still applies based upon your rants...stop reading blogs because they won't be that "magic 8 ball" for you and learn to trade for yourself. Yet, maybe you should stop trading if you have such a distrust for wall street. Also, go to your bank and withdrawl all your money because you've indirectly given your cash to those you distrust the most (seriously).

Last of all, don't forget to change your user name or contact Baron to request your account to be deleted because you seem to be in the wrong career.

P.S. I'm damn proud of my comic book collection and it's not up for sale. Ooops...sorry about the advertising.

P.S.S. You've discussed several different topics in this thread via your own choice. All we've done is reply. Thus, if you want this thread to be about blogs...please stick to the topic.

Mark
 
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