Yeah, That's another dimension. We only know if it was good or not in hindsight, don't we? But expected volatility, in whatever expression we perceive it, is what we size up to. stat vol, ATR, BB widths etc etc
BBBY
- Thread starter kmiklas
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Yeah, That's another dimension. We only know if it was good or not in hindsight, don't we? But expected volatility, in whatever expression we perceive it, is what we size up to. stat vol, ATR, BB widths etc etc
Dont ignore the supply chain interruptions in logistics from Asia... there will be a lot of empty shelves this Xmas and it is 100% to do with back up supply chain disruptions from Asia into the U.S. and the Americas.. started earlier in the year and we are at the peak of it as China will be shut down for a whole week for their Golden Week or something like that. All the retailers will get hit pretty hard.
That being said... Nordtrom and macy's were shit before COVID hit to be honest....
That being said... Nordtrom and macy's were shit before COVID hit to be honest....
Good point. Look at that volume spike at 9:30am. Somebody made a decision that this will fall no further, and 16. will be the floor!
Interestingly, since the move occurred in out-of-hours trading, the uptick rule was not triggered at 10%. Assuming a starting price of $23., during trading hours, the uptick rule would have kicked in at $20.7. Here we had a vertical plunge at the open straight down to $16., for a 30% loss. Ouch!
A picturesque illustration of the dangers of holding overnight.
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"In the long run, we're all dead." --Keynes
Seriously, I listened to the BBBY call, and that's what they were saying; that in the longer-term, supply chain issues and COVID will abate, and they'll return to profitability.
The risk, of course, is that this is a structural change, and that a certain percentage of retail has permanently moved from brick n' mortar to online.
At this point, what else do they have but the longer term? Short-term (this quarter) and even medium-term (2022) they're pretty much dead money.
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I would think the WMT and AMZN will do better overall in a consumer market crash since the staples will still be bought via those routes but all the stores living off of Asia made products are going suffer this Xmas...