Bay Area Real Estate Market

PennyPenny:
>Amazing. But I am wondering what was a guy's
>annual earnings in 1955 with a similar social status
>of a guy who can buy a $900K house today?

It's an interesting question Penny. I sure it could be calculated, but I haven't done it. With the home appreciations here stomping inflation for so many years I would bet that 9k in 55 was much easier.


causeiambetta:
>at what point does living in a big house or area not
>become worth it? eventually we all have to pay the
>piper. if we spend all our time working to pay for our
>house, what's the point? why be the a slave to the
>bank?

I sure understand your point and for so many people who are slaves to Visa and other forms of credit it's a valid one. Our situation is a bit different and the payments would have not been a threat to our current enjoyable lifestyle. The hope of course is that you get a return on your investment and for many years obviously this has been quite true -- I'm not convinced at this rate that over the next 5 years it will remain so.

Wag:
>California Dude . . .
>It's ALL GOOD!!!

It can be VERY tough to beat from a lifestyle standpoint.
 
this is true, a house does appreciate.

we'd have to be in a house for some time to truely bank on the appreciation. the first several years of a mortgage goes almost all to the interest payments. granted the interest is tax deductible but AMT is always around the corner.......
 
Why anyone would spend $800k on a fixer upper dump is beyond me.People should look into Florida which i think will experience some nice appreciation in the coming years as the baby boomers retire and businesses look for cheaper places to relocate.Plus Florida has no state income taxes and great weather to boot.Here is an example what $800k buys you in Tampa...http://realestate.yahoo.com/display...f&cr=Florida&cpcy=&fullnodeid=750007014&intl=

What $600k buys you...http://realestate.yahoo.com/display...f&cr=Florida&cpcy=&fullnodeid=750007014&intl=

And for the $150-160k range...http://realestate.yahoo.com/display...9&cr=Florida&cpcy=&fullnodeid=750007014&intl=

and

http://realestate.yahoo.com/display...1&cr=Florida&cpcy=&fullnodeid=750007014&intl=
 
Not!

ertrader1

02-21-04 12:05 AM

South Florida is for Sale

S. Florida is shit......who the hell wants to live here unless ur in the mid 80s of your golden years.....are you kidding me.

I live on the intercoastal right across from the ocean on A1a....in Dell Ray beach...renting a house. As i drive down my street, every house is for sale, there are more for sale signs, that have sat and sat since i moved here.

The weather is nice, and there are some real nice area's, however, shit roles down here, and all the crap from the rest of the united states ends up in Florida, south. From the drug addicts and criminals , to the East Coast rejects with Money and wanna be Soprano life style.

I dont belive the real estate value in south Florida, including South Beach, and north beach is going to be worth much more than what you pay for it now. In fact, It is overpriced IMHO.
 
>Why anyone would spend $800k on a fixer
>upper dump is beyond me.

Because it's surrounded by 1.5 million dollar houses and by popping 300k more in it you get it to that value. Buying the worst house in the neighborhood and throwing money and sweat into it can yield excellent dividends.

>People should look into Florida which i think will experience
>some nice appreciation in the coming years as the baby
>boomers retire and businesses look for cheaper places
>to relocate.Plus Florida has no state income taxes and
>great weather to boot.

No offense, and there may be quite a bit of truth to what you are saying, but frankly I HATE the weather in florida. Have spent extensive time there and it's just too hot and humid for my tastes.

JB
 
I just left florida, Lived off of A1A in Del Ray beach, between Boca and West Palm......there are serious amount of for sales signs all up and down A1A...more sales signs than new construction.

No state Tax means nothing because they make it back in Property taxes in Florida.

South Florida has become overpriced, is full of criminals from all levels and has very little industry and what is there is moving out.

People retiring now are not gona have the same cash flow as the many who have retired, the retired generation that is not wealthy is gona have a shit storm on their hands. THe average retire can hardly afford anything let alone a nice house in south Florida.

South Florida has two income levels poor and super wealthy ( i include most 9 to 5ers in the poor category because FL. wages are a joke for most professions.)

IMHO Realestate is overvalued in most area and we are going to see serious problems in the realestate market, regardless, just like you saw with the Nasdaq.

IMHO, The west coast of florida, ie: Pan Handel, and the coast of Alabama and Lousianna haver the best % chance for growth and the lest % for a meltdown.

The Rest of the country, keep on buying them homes......its ur last hope.
 
Quote from waggie945:

Not!

ertrader1

02-21-04 12:05 AM

South Florida is for Sale

S. Florida is shit......who the hell wants to live here unless ur in the mid 80s of your golden years.....are you kidding me.

I live on the intercoastal right across from the ocean on A1a....in Dell Ray beach...renting a house. As i drive down my street, every house is for sale, there are more for sale signs, that have sat and sat since i moved here.

The weather is nice, and there are some real nice area's, however, shit roles down here, and all the crap from the rest of the united states ends up in Florida, south. From the drug addicts and criminals , to the East Coast rejects with Money and wanna be Soprano life style.

I dont belive the real estate value in south Florida, including South Beach, and north beach is going to be worth much more than what you pay for it now. In fact, It is overpriced IMHO.
More...

Miami Beach residents and workers sure did ask me alot of questions about Connecticut, NJ, the Carolinas, etc.. when I was down there on vacation about a year ago. The majority wanted a quieter lifestyle and more room to breathe. As for housing, a bigger backyard and some hills would be nice.
South Florida definitely is overhyped and overpriced but still a fun spot to vacation.
The idea that FL is a prime real estate market for retirees is such an old pitch.
 
Quote from Turok:

>Why anyone would spend $800k on a fixer
>upper dump is beyond me.

Because it's surrounded by 1.5 million dollar houses and by popping 300k more in it you get it to that value. Buying the worst house in the neighborhood and throwing money and sweat into it can yield excellent dividends.

>People should look into Florida which i think will experience
>some nice appreciation in the coming years as the baby
>boomers retire and businesses look for cheaper places
>to relocate.Plus Florida has no state income taxes and
>great weather to boot.

No offense, and there may be quite a bit of truth to what you are saying, but frankly I HATE the weather in florida. Have spent extensive time there and it's just too hot and humid for my tastes.

JB
More...

I agree with your comments about the Florida humidity, although the houses in the link are great looking and with a very low price tag. The tax situation in Florida would be a huge plus to boot.


Re: Bay area real estate....It really seems risky though, from a pure investment angle to buy into the California real estate market after such a long run up in prices like this. Historically, California real estate has been a 2 steps forward, one step back for decades....generations even. Many buyers think real estate just HAS to move higher. Is it really different this time? Are we in some sort of new era? What happens if real estate moves lower from your entry? Are you prepared to ride out a 25% drawdown (downpayment goes "poof") in the homes value over the next half dozen or more years? Many of your new neighbors are not prepared, they will lose their homes in foreclosure.

Real estate has now taken 3 steps forward due to Greenspans pumping cheap money like never before. The runup in prices in California real estate has been the largest in history. This might suggest that real estate is due for a signifigant pullback soon. Greenspan will be forced to raise rates due to commodity inflation. Indeed, inflation is coming, you can see it in everywhere. IMO these asking prices will not be sustainable with off shoring only getting worse, and zero net job growth.

From just a trading standpoint, this does not seem like a "low risk entry point" to me. I like to see things go down, base, and start heading higher before I enter. California real estate has historically in the past done all these things.
 
Quote from onewaypockets:

I agree with your comments about the Florida humidity, although the houses in the link are great looking and with a very low price tag. The tax situation in Florida would be a huge plus to boot.


Re: Bay area real estate....It really seems risky though, from a pure investment angle to buy into the California real estate market after such a long run up in prices like this. Historically, California real estate has been a 2 steps forward, one step back for decades....generations even. Many buyers think real estate just HAS to move higher. Is it really different this time? Are we in some sort of new era? What happens if real estate moves lower from your entry? Are you prepared to ride out a 25% drawdown (downpayment goes "poof") in the homes value over the next half dozen or more years? Many of your new neighbors are not prepared, they will lose their homes in foreclosure.

Real estate has now taken 3 steps forward due to Greenspans pumping cheap money like never before. The runup in prices in California real estate has been the largest in history. This might suggest that real estate is due for a signifigant pullback soon. Greenspan will be forced to raise rates due to commodity inflation. Indeed, inflation is coming, you can see it in everywhere. IMO these asking prices will not be sustainable with off shoring only getting worse, and zero net job growth.

From just a trading standpoint, this does not seem like a "low risk entry point" to me. I like to see things go down, base, and start heading higher before I enter. California real estate has historically in the past done all these things.
More...

Nice post. After seeing how hot the "bubble" is at this point, I have concluded the same.

JB
 
I remember when I bought my condo in the east bay in 94. The people there were saying it had taken ten years for the prices to get back to what they had paid ten years before. There is a decent chance that people buying in the next couple of years here might also have to wait awhile. Once interest rates start to go higher, watch out.
 
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