Battle between Bulls vs Bears: ETF hedge strategy

[1957may10]

Good point, I'll test GOLD vs DUST as well, I used to trade abx, lots to choose from like NUGT JNUG JDST though I prefer ones under 40

Thanks, I can tell you it’s very dynamic stock use to be $16 p/s. More mobile, since you have double neg dust it more fits to this pare and cheaper to buy.

 

[1957may10]

Good point, I'll test GOLD vs DUST as well, I used to trade abx, lots to choose from like NUGT JNUG JDST though I prefer ones under 40

Me too

 

[1957may10]

Sure, no re buying both at open, I put in buy stop orders for both slightly above opening price, eg 30 to 70 cents on average.

One of them gets filled. I use OTO conditional orders with 1 point trailing stop initially, after it moves up I tighten to 30 cent trailing stop.

I also tighten up entry on opposing ETF. If initial one eg DUST keeps running up I double size eg 70 cents to $1 above first entry

It's a work in progress, testing params

Can you show yours today’s trading chart for gdx-dust on eod please.
Thank you.

 

[1957may10]

When you swinging you should consider yesterday’s 5 10 ema, sma. Swinging on day volume not always works, works today perfect
Still got
M 8.6%
Kss 7.8%
Ccl 3.3%
Will see eod what to sell.

I’m still holding these three above, closely watching. I sold gold and SPXU this morning.
Bought NCLH, rcl and I’m going to sell them guess soon.

 

[ironchef]

I can't see how this can go any higher.

Re strategy, can you scale based on winning percent? A manual scale past SR would be good but difficult to backtest

Why not? Just do some simple math:

1. Total US GDP ~$20 T;

2. 25% reduction due to worst case 25% unemployment costs ~$5 T;

3. Total USG bailout: At least $5 T and counting;

4. On top of that, FED QE like there is no tomorrow;

5. On top of that, zero federal fund rate;

6. On top of that a hidden tax cut for corporations (you need to be a tax accountant reading the fine print to find it).

7. Where can all the money go?

8. This is a presidential election year!

That is why I kept buying all through March and April as soon as the magnitude of the first bailout was discussed.

 

[KCalhoun]

current positions, TVIX fave

 

[1957may10]

current positions, TVIX fave

View attachment 229776

Good luck.

 

[KCalhoun]

here's today's test 5june, roughly $1500 bull vs bear, will scale based on price action response to am reports

 

[1957may10]

After making solid profits trading inverse ETFs during feb/march, I stubbornly kept trading them apr/may, giving back much of my profit trying to bottomfish; I was a skeptic of the bounce.

But price action is all that matters. So I'm starting fresh, using my ETF arb strategy I published last year. It involves starting both long- and short-bias positions with roughly same amount of capital, then scaling over time (a week or two) into winners and out of losers. Starting tiny size at first.

I need to reduce the number of inverses to 2-3; for now:
Long bias = SPXL TNA
Short bias = FAZ LABD SDOW SOXS SPXS SQQQ SRTY TVIX TZA

Goal initially is 'stable breakeven' such that losses in one set are closely offset by profits in other set. The challenge, which I'd appreciate your ideas on, is how to scale profitably, taking into account morning gaps, for 1-2 week swingtrading. Goal is to scale into 10-15k capital in winning set to book 3k+ profit.

as of 6:37amET 6/3 long bias are gapping up

Any suggestions for improving or refining the strategy test? (other than reducing # of etfs)

Current positions:


View attachment 229609

thx!

Are you holding dust now?
Wanted to buy before market
Mine now m, ccl, kss, NCLH.

 

[1957may10]

Are you holding dust now?
Wanted to buy before market
Mine now m, ccl, kss, NCLH.

I bought gold now. Price is good, expecting it will rise eod