Baruch's Forex System Journal

[rax]

Quote from Jetheat:

So what do you base your decisions on? Is it a hunch or do you have Indicators which you rely on?

my indicator is the pricechart with some ma's. long term pricechart, 1h, 3h, daily.

the rest is "hunch".

i know this is not a real system, but so far its doing quite well.

my basic assumption is that there are huge swings especially in the eurusd and that you can open a short OR a long pos right now and come out with a profit in both (not at the same time ofcourse), but you have to stand the pain.

i like random traders style in his forex forex journal, allthough he was sometimes holding some losing postion too long imo.

 

[Baruch]

Quote from rax:

my indicator is the pricechart with some ma's. long term pricechart, 1h, 3h, daily.

the rest is "hunch".

i know this is not a real system, but so far its doing quite well.

my basic assumption is that there are huge swings especially in the eurusd and that you can open a short OR a long pos right now and come out with a profit in both (not at the same time ofcourse), but you have to stand the pain.

So it doesn't matter if you are long or short, because of the huge swings?

 

[Baruch]

Quote from Baruch:

So it doesn't matter if you are long or short, because of the huge swings?

Let's say you are long in euro from 1.2160...so you had to wait for the price to go up there again? Well, maybe it will, but in the meantime you will lose a lot of trading (and pips), I suppose?

 

[rax]

Quote from Baruch:

So it doesn't matter if you are long or short, because of the huge swings?

of course it is not that simple. i will not elaborate this further, because i cannot back it with hard statistical data. just a hunch.
and of course it is most important to be right in the prediction of the move more than 50% of the time.

if it would be that simple i would have found the holy grail :eek:

 

[Baruch]

Quote from rax:

of course it is not that simple. i will not elaborate this further, because i cannot back it with hard statistical data. just a hunch.
and of course it is most important to be right in the prediction of the move more than 50% of the time.

if it would be that simple i would have found the holy grail :eek:

OK - if it works, it works. But I don't like pain. Small losses don't gives you pain. Big losses do. So I kill the small losses before they grow up to be big losses.

This is my holy grail.

 

[rax]

Quote from Baruch:

Let's say you are long in euro from 1.2160...so you had to wait for the price to go up there again? Well, maybe it will, but in the meantime you will lose a lot of trading (and pips), I suppose?

thats true. but after -100 to -200 i would kick it out.

 

[Baruch]

Quote from rax:

thats true. but after -100 to -200 i would kick it out.

I suppose that if you hold out because you think it will come back again, you need to "double up" your position?

 

[rax]

Quote from Baruch:

I suppose that if you hold out because you think it will come back again, you need to "double up" your position?

basically no, never double up on losers.

but with very small positions (relative to the account) you could also do this, and see it as a scaling in. if you can stand to lose the position all together, why not?

but the market will not always come back again, and especially not when you need it the most (with too big a pos)

and:
the market can stay irrational longer than ...

baruch,
im just talking about some ideas, im not saying it is like that and thats the only way to do it.

 

[rax]

Quote from Jetheat:

So what do you base your decisions on? Is it a hunch or do you have Indicators which you rely on?

by the way, i also like fibos

 

[Baruch]

Quote from rax:

by the way, i also like fibos

OK - it's OK to trade TA, but it is the news who makes the big swings. We need to forecast what will happen before it happens.
It's difficult to trade the news the old way - the brokers know our game now, and they send the stop hunters against us. We must be a head before them.