Baruch's Forex System Journal

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Quote from Scientist:

Trend? LOL it's the bottom of a channel, so it's, by definition, a trade off a trendline.
You really should study the charts I've attached so you understand better... They're loaded with great hints... :)

LOL! It was a joke - because you just had written, that the trend is your friend. No, it's not always our friend. Not at bottoms and tops.
 
Quote from Scientist:

New Long EUR @058. Reason: Self-explanatory... :)
Out 1/2 @118, +60

Holding rest as usual. Called bottom within couple of ticks once again lol... As $$$Mr.Market$$$ woud say: "I AM HUGE!" :D

I will post complete chart at EOD. Thanks for having me here Baruch and sorry for the clutter! I will only post my trades for 1 day, OK?!
 
Quote from Scientist:

Out 1/2 @118, +60

Holding rest as usual. Called bottom within couple of ticks once again lol... As $$$Mr.Market$$$ woud say: "I AM HUGE!" :D

I will post complete chart at EOD. Thanks for having me here Baruch and sorry for the clutter! I will only post my trades for 1 day, OK?!

No, you are welcome. But think about all the pips you didn't got because you don't add to winners...

Anyway, I think I will take a trip tomorrow to Italy (I love that country!) so maybe will I away from here some days.
 
Quote from Scientist:

This happens all the time, just look at the ER2's faded bullflags yesterday.

If people trade like this for a living? LOL are you kidding? Stop-gunning is one of the most profitable (and fun) things you'll ever do. In case you don't know, this is what futures markets are all about. If we reach a really critical level, where it's obvious where the stops are sitting (usually 1-2T above "setup failure level" LOL), and the tape agrees - you just go for it. Don't fade it, but gun the stops above / below! The quicker and larger you are, the better. Once you fire a few rounds, the others will panic to join you, and BANG, there go the stops.

Why play this game? Because it's incredibly rewarding! You hit all the stops, which go at market and violently propel price your way! It's free money, taken off the noobs who put their stops where everyone else did. Once you're up a few ticks on the stop run and the tape stalls, you can exit for a profit, THEN reverse and load yourself on the supply to take the initial trade, which all the stop-busted people intended to take in the first place.

Stop busting is extremely rewarding, because:

1) Stop levels mean super supply and "domino-effect" stop runs if touched.
2) Once stops are busted, you get lots of supply freebies (panickers)
3) When the run stalls, you suck up the freebies and wait for the correction - in your favor.
4) Once price actually goes in the original direction again, you have a "heavy" position because so many piggybackers were shaken out on stop level.
5) Enjoy the ride - with extra added R:R...

Good info... I will incorporate this stop gunning strategy into my trading.. I will look to ride it then fade it. Its easy to fade when there is a key support not far away from the stops.. but if there is no support near by... look out it can get crazy.

I was curious as to anyone using fibs when they trade Euro.... do you always draw the fibs off hourly chart pivots. I am trying to see what other traders are seeing..

I tend to have trouble drawing fibs.. because its not always clear how the market reacts to these fib levels and which fib level it will actually respond to.


-MIKE
 
Scientist,

Great trades.

I wonder if you could tell more about HOW you pinpoint the reversals so accurately. I often find myself to be 100% right that a reversal is about to happen, but find myself executing too early and get stopped out (re-entry is a possibility) or sometimes too late and missing the move (a pullback entry is often an option in such case, but many times the price moves too fast with no decent second change).

Obviously waiting the price to hit exactly the trend line is not a viable solution, for example your recent trades show cases where the price has overshot the trendline to return and cases (as the last one) where the price turns some time before hitting the trendline.

I understand that we might be wondering into "propriatory" territory here but any hints as to which direction to go in my studies would be appreciated.

Bungle
 
Do you think we can start a thread or some type of discussion over where key stops are located. I guess the best strategy would be to use a limit order to enter right near these stops... or maybe even enter a lil early in anticipation of a big move.

Scientist I am curious as to what news feeds u use if any? DO you have a bloomberg feed?



--MIKE
 
What do u guys think is the best news feed thats affordable for FX trading. Besides knowing all the eco# I am more interested in knowing the rumors and comments from influential analysts/banks or policy makers.

Is bloomberg the only one that really good? I am demoing MNI and AFX... I think MNI is very good.. but when something major happens outside of eco# its not so fast.

--MIKE
 
Quote from Baruch:

Hi Sci,

Well done. But you made two big mistankes:
1. You sold half of your position 45 pips away from the top. Why?
2. Instead you should have added to your position. Always add to your winners, when the market is trending.

Those two mistakes did cost you 90 pips!

If
LOL Baruch you really got this one completely wrong... Read again... I Sold 3/4, then re-entered the full size again 13 T higher, and continued riding it ---> LOL! :D

Oh, and if you mean the trade #2 chicken-out, where I bailed with a 30T profit - I bailed because of news, and re-entered at the top. That, again, actually made me an extra 25T! :p

I didn't make less. I made more. You think I gave up 90 pips? Where the hell? I didn't give up 90, I actually made an extra 38T all-in-all by chickening out on those 2 trades (due to the tape action actually). Do your maths again. Maybe attached chart helps...

Only exception is trade combo 3/4, where I exited for +50 and +77 instead of +50 and +100, but that was my only mistake afaic. And trust me, it bugs me, too! :eek:

Baruch, you should listen into that Hayley Westenra album!
 

Attachments

Regarding the stop gunning.. Take a look at the 1.2055 level. We are not too far off from there and if we break this level.. the market doesnt have any support nearby. Ideally u want to see the market consolidate near this level for a while before it breaks the key support because.. if it just drops off without basing first its not as profitable.

If the market does break that level and u time it pretty well.. it should be good for atleast a 20-30 pip play. I would be hesitant fading the breakout because ther is no key support nearby.

What do u guys think?


--MIKE
 
Quote from Trend Fader:

What do u guys think is the best news feed thats affordable for FX trading. Besides knowing all the eco# I am more interested in knowing the rumors and comments from influential analysts/banks or policy makers.

Is bloomberg the only one that really good? I am demoing MNI and AFX... I think MNI is very good.. but when something major happens outside of eco# its not so fast.

--MIKE

News is only good really if its accurate and out exactly when u need it ,.... therefore I wud go w/ Bloomie ...althought the cost for that is out of this world .... think last I check $1200+ per month....... on the rumor front websites have all the gossip ...best thing in FX is to know the who and what of the options that are expireing then u can get a sense of what the option traders have to cover or sell and that will give some wind to whatever the product is ......... typical option for a "Player" is $1 to $3 billion and if that is out of the money then they gonna hve 2 cover the diff ..... in cable or swiss that can move the market and give u a free ride........
 
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