Baruch's Forex System Journal

[Jayford]

Quote from Baruch:

Hi again,

OK, but could you tell something about your system?

Don't have a "system" as you would define it. I primarily trade retracements to trendlines, or fibonacci retracements. I also fade supp/resis if it doesn't look like it will break (based on volume and market depth). The specific retracement or fade all depends on the market. The choice of which one to choose is subjective based on many thousands of hours behind a monitor, but the entry is objective once I decide on the plan. I will buy right at a trendline channel for example. Targets are also based on experience, but they are usually a channel level or previous high as another example. My system definitely isn't mechanical. I can't trade that way, but most people probably should.

My favorite setup is 60 min channels. I use 5 min charts for actual entry and exit.

Subjectively, I thought today was a mess, and did nothing in currencies. I traded the last 90 minutes in spoos. Thats it.
Jay

 

[Jayford]

Quote from Baruch:

Hi Jay,

OK, but how hot? And what about crime?

The DR has the exact same temperature range as Hawaii (mid 80's always for a high).

Crime can be pretty bad in Santo Domingo, but not on the north shore where I will be. Its heavily developed for the tourist/expat crowd, and the government sees to it that those tourist dollars don't go away by policing it well. There is definitely petty crime like swiping cameras off the beach, but violent crime is very rare where I will live. Yes, I've been there before.

Maybe I should have just PM'ed you about this (totally off topic).
sorry,
Jay

 

[Scientist]

Quote from Jayford:

thats prolly a good trade for ya Sci. Even yen is frisky again already, but too over bot still for my taste.

You have almost no risk on the Euro trade now imo.

Jay

Well, there goes the opinion! LOL!

EUR tanked again, all the way back to yesterday's breakout level, far out... Well, when I saw that 50% level was tested again and again, I chickened out at the retrace, with a miniscule profit of a few ticks. I didn't trade EUR anymore at all from thereon (I wish I had though lol).

I traded mostly the ES & ER2 all day, which was good. I took almost 60T on ER2, and a few points on ES.

I also re-opened my ES swing short, which I'm planning to hold for a while. Unfortunately, those stupid news yesterday (hunting ghosts again) shook me out, I'm still very bearish on the US economy, and this goes both fundamentally and technically.

Jay, can you just pull up the ES chart and draw the fib from the high to low on the medium-term daily... Then look at it on the 30m. You will see how the ES tested the 40% retracement 3 times, and rejected it every time... Man, if the ES totally refuses to break even the 40%, what does that mean? Bear-time!

I decided to go short next morning, and when the tapes showed rejection by 11:30 reversal time, I went short at 1120.00.

The short is starting to develop, and I believe it has plenty of downside. Within a longer timeframe, I think a 100 pt downside (1020) would be a modest expectation, 920 as the next lower is quite possible. But that's all a lot longer than I want to hold, anyway...

Currently, it looks a bit like ES has failed the 50% retracement on the monthly as well. Do you think this eternal bear market might continue for a lot longer?

Scientist

 

[Scientist]

Quote from Jayford:

The DR has the exact same temperature range as Hawaii (mid 80's always for a high).

Crime can be pretty bad in Santo Domingo, but not on the north shore where I will be. Its heavily developed for the tourist/expat crowd, and the government sees to it that those tourist dollars don't go away by policing it well. There is definitely petty crime like swiping cameras off the beach, but violent crime is very rare where I will live. Yes, I've been there before.

Maybe I should have just PM'ed you about this (totally off topic).
sorry,
Jay

Jayford, are you planning to live there forever?

Do you prefer the lifestyle to living in USA? If so, why?

And since it's the Carribbean, how about (no) taxation over there?

And last but not least - how long have you been trading for, anyway?

Cheers!

 

[Baruch]

A good day - because the system made several signals in all 3 currencies. I love that.
The first was a buy-signal. But the price in euro came quickly back, but I got out at b/e (entry). I took the sell-signal, but again the price came back. Once again I was lucky to get out at b/e (entry). I took also the buy-signal, and this I time I made 5 pips, before the price came back to entry.
As you can understand, I used very tight stops. Because I thought we was in a trading range.
Again I took the sell-signal (I have to take all the signals or Sci will be angry!), but this time the price did not get back.
I wish I could say I took the whole ride down south. But I did'nt. I went flat 30 pips lower at support, because I was only thinking in terms of trading range. How stupid can you be? A trading range with all the news coming out from Pakistan? And a lot of stops below support to the benefit of the stop-hunters?
I could'nt get myself to sell euro again, only 15-20 pips lower, after the break, so I sold GBP, which was still fightning not to follow euro down. But it did. Today euro led the way.
I made 75 pips the whole day. If I had traded all 3 pairs, it would have been more than 200 pips. But it's difficult to trade them all at the same time, when thing are moving fast.

A nice weekend to everybody!

 

[Jayford]

Quote from Scientist:

Well, there goes the opinion! LOL!


Currently, it looks a bit like ES has failed the 50% retracement on the monthly as well. Do you think this eternal bear market might continue for a lot longer?

Scientist

Euro: By no risk, I meant you'd bail at 310 level if tested again. Sounds like what you did. That's what I'd do.

ES: Yes, completely agree. Unless they get the #2 al quaeda guy. I would not wish to have a position over weekend.

 

[Jayford]

Quote from Scientist:

Jayford, are you planning to live there forever?

Do you prefer the lifestyle to living in USA? If so, why?

And since it's the Carribbean, how about (no) taxation over there?

And last but not least - how long have you been trading for, anyway?

Cheers!

No, just a year or two.
I like the US and other places. I like constant change. I am also a windsurfing junky. (Its a windsurf town I'm going to). I've lived in resort towns for the past 20 years or so.
Taxes: still pay US taxes. First 80K or so tax free if you spend no more than 30 days per year in States.

It will be 17 years in April, full time. First, futures of every type (from lumber to full size Spoos), then forex, then equities (Bright), then ES exclusively, now currencies and ES. I'm sure it will evolve to something else as well eventually.

Jay

 

[Jayford]

Baruch,

I don't think you yet understand that 75 pips is a good day!

Thats $750 per lot!

Stop beating yourself up over missed pips. You are kicking my ass at the moment on a point basis (not sure what size you trade). Today I took zero tics in currencies, and 6 points ES. I am happy with that. It was a profit.

I have plenty of roughly BE days, and an occaisional ugly day. From what I've read, you've been sticking it every day. If this continues, I'm just going to kick back and follow you!

Jay

 

[Baruch]

Quote from Jayford:

Baruch,

I don't think you yet understand that 75 pips is a good day!

Thats $750 per lot!

Stop beating yourself up over missed pips. You are kicking my ass at the moment on a point basis (not sure what size you trade). Today I took zero tics in currencies, and 6 points ES. I am happy with that. It was a profit.

I have plenty of roughly BE days, and an occaisional ugly day. From what I've read, you've been sticking it every day. If this continues, I'm just going to kick back and follow you!

Jay

Hi Jay,

75 pips is a good day. I agree. I don't beat myself up over missed pips, but over my poor THINKING. I looked too much at the charts - and did'nt try to analyze the impact of the action in Pakistan. Because of the news the dollar only had one way to go: UP. Nobobody wants to be short the dollar in the weekend, if they get Osama bin Laden & Co. Very simple. But I could'nt figure it out. Stupid, stupid.

 

[Baruch]

Quote from izeickl:

I use trendlines a lot, stoch, and also 50MA as my main Bread 'n butter...I overlay fibs, supp/res, 34ma and 100ma aswell. I do have a system, but, its not mechanical...it gives me trade indications but I use judgement on whether or not I take it/precise entry point. I dont use set stop sizes either, it all depends on where I think "the price should not hit here if im correct" is.

Hi again,

Why 34ma?