Baruch's Forex System Journal

[Baruch]

Quote from Scientist:

OK then, some notes;

1) For starters, I assume you're using SMA instead of EMA, since it was crossed at 1.7999. Any reasons for preferring an SMA? Have you experimented with any EMA's?

2) You supposedly entered at 1.7995, 4 pips below cross? Didn't you say you use a 10-pip entry filter? What happened?

3) I see on my quote station your order was for 1 contract @MKT at 2:45:43 EST.

Do you use market orders to get in? If so, do you consider that safe, particularly in a freefall like this, where the bid could just disappear and you get filled anywhere? And on top of that during one of the least liquid times in one of the least liquid markets? Or did you just have your LMT somewhere below the bid? Appreciate your elaboration.

4) You exited either @LMT at 3:09:49, MKT at 3:23:22, or LMT at 3:23:27. Since latter two were exactly the minute you posted your results, I'm not sure if it could have been them. So I ask how do you preferably exit? At LMT? And more importantly, what made you exit there?

5) Why did you exit at all? There clearly was a powerful fall, and according to 30m chart, we made a lower low at the 3:00 bar (lower than the prior day's 12:30 bar, even if just by a couple of pips, for chartists that's all that counts!), on top of the fact that the swing highs on the 30m are all lower than the preceding ones. So we're witnessing the quasi-beginning of a downward sloping channel. All these things would confirm a bearish position over a bullish one.

6) In light of these questions and circumstances, would you think that it could have been wise to have a splittable position, take 1/2 or 2/3 just above the prior low (like you did) and another 1/2 or 1/3 for continuation for a possibly much larger gain?

Cheers,
Scientist

Hi Scientist,

1. I don't know very much about the different MAs. Do you?
2. I did'nt used the 10 pips filter this time, because RSI - the other filter - looked fine (more than 60). And Euro and CHF was below the cross - have been there for some time.
3. I don't have any rules about limit or market orders, but I like market orders best, because you always gets your fill, and you don't have to wait for it. I know you only use limit orders, but they are not without problems. Sometimes the market runs away from you?
4. Why did I exit? Because I did'nt knew - as I wrote - what was going on. That's why.
5. Yes, but not always. Sometimes it is better to get out quick with your whole position. It depends on the market- and what's happening.

 

[Scientist]

Quote from Baruch:

Hi Scientist,

1. I don't know very much about the different MAs. Do you?
2. I did'nt used the 10 pips filter this time, because RSI - the other filter - looked fine (more than 60). And Euro and CHF was below the cross - have been there for some time.
3. I don't have any rules about limit or market orders, but I like market orders best, because you always gets your fill, and you don't have to wait for it. I know you only use limit orders, but they are not without problems. Sometimes the market runs away from you?
4. Why did I exit? Because I did'nt knew - as I wrote - what was going on. That's why.
5. Yes, but not always. Sometimes it is better to get out quick with your whole position. It depends on the market- and what's happening.

1. You don't know? Just experiment, bro. It's 99% perspiration and 1% inspiration.

2. Fair enough. So your system is rather discretionary / undefined, which makes automated execution very difficult.

3. Yes, sometimes the market runs away from you. And what does that mean??? It means you've missed your chance!

If you want to be a really good trader, you need to understand that sometimes (always), letting a trade go is better than entering too late / at a bad price. The futures markets are too efficient to allow for wishy-washy entries. Remember, people are fighting for ticks here.

Always make sure your R:R maintains a good ratio before you put on a trade. If the downside is too high for the possible reward, don't enter, no matter how good it looks. This is a game of numbers, not looks or sentiment. Well, you got away with it this time and exited well. But you might not next time...

4. Who knows what's going on? Does anybody out there know? If so, please email me.

5. Keeping at least a third or a quarter for a longer play can at times really pay off...

 

[Scientist]

Another chart you might find interesting...

I might enter the GBP short once it hits the upper 1/8 and see if I can ride it.

 

[Baruch]

Quote from Scientist:

1. You don't know? Just experiment, bro. It's 99% perspiration and 1% inspiration.

2. Fair enough. So your system is rather discretionary / undefined, which makes automated execution very difficult.

3. Yes, sometimes the market runs away from you. And what does that mean??? It means you've missed your chance!

If you want to be a really good trader, you need to understand that sometimes (always), letting a trade go is better than entering too late / at a bad price. The futures markets are too efficient to allow for wishy-washy entries. Remember, people are fighting for ticks here.

Always make sure your R:R maintains a good ratio before you put on a trade. If the downside is too high for the possible reward, don't enter, no matter how good it looks. This is a game of numbers, not looks or sentiment. Well, you got away with it this time and exited well. But you might not next time...

4. Who knows what's going on? Does anybody out there know? If so, please email me.

5. Keeping at least a third or a quarter for a longer play can at times really pay off...

Hi again,

1. I prefer 2% inspiration...
2. Rules are OK, but so is common sense.
3. I agree, but I don't want to make a rule about only using limit stops. If you want to get out, market orders are very usefull. And I am not a scalper. But I will now think more about this problem.
4. Well, you are right again, but it's difficult to ride a winner, if you don't know what's going on. That's why I follow the news. I wish I had a Bloomberg on my desk.
5. I agree.

 

[Baruch]

Quote from Scientist:

Another chart you might find interesting...

I might enter the GBP short once it hits the upper 1/8 and see if I can ride it.

Scientist,

OK, and good luck. I suppose my system will go long.

 

[Scientist]

Quote from Baruch:

Scientist,

OK, and good luck. I suppose my system will go long.

Interesting! I entered a short in the EUR at 1.2236, see how it goes.

 

[Baruch]

Quote from Scientist:

Interesting! I entered a short in the EUR at 1.2236, see how it goes.

Scientist,

Good call. What made you go short? And where's your stop?

 

[Baruch]

A cross-over in GBP, but I did'nt take the trade, because it's notconfirmed by RSI. It's 52 on the futures chart, and 49 on the spot chart. And RSI had gone down, when the price went up.

 

[Scientist]

Quote from Baruch:

Scientist,

Good call. What made you go short? And where's your stop?

Oh Baruch, I just realized it would take about 3 pages explaining all the reasons why...

It's a well-planned trade. Let's just say it's an upper channel line rejection thing. If you look at the market as a whole larger thing, you might see it. I tend to approach the markets totally top-down, so I will look at monthly first, then weekly, daily, look at the 120, 60, 30, 15, 5, 1 charts. That's how I determine the entry/exit points and half-life for each trade.

Currently, this is a decent down-channel in the 15m, but we're forming a massive triangle in the larger timeframes, so I'll probably take at least 1/2 or 2/3 at the 195-205 level, at 31-41 ticks gain, depending on what the market looks like then.

My stop sits at 244, 8T above entry. If you look at the 15/30/60m, you may understand why.

The trade has an R:R of 3.9 : 1 to 5.1 : 1, so I don't worry about it too much. Even if I won this type of trade only 30% of the time, I'd still be victorious. Incidentally, I win more than 60% of the time.

Scientist

 

[Baruch]

Quote from Scientist:

Oh Baruch, I just realized it would take about 3 pages explaining all the reasons why...

It's a well-planned trade. Let's just say it's an upper channel line rejection thing. If you look at the market as a whole larger thing, you might see it. I tend to approach the markets totally top-down, so I will look at monthly first, then weekly, daily, look at the 120, 60, 30, 15, 5, 1 charts. That's how I determine the entry/exit points and half-life for each trade.

Currently, this is a decent down-channel in the 15m, but we're forming a massive triangle in the larger timeframes, so I'll probably take at least 1/2 or 2/3 at the 195-205 level, at 31-41 ticks gain, depending on what the market looks like then.

My stop sits at 244, 8T above entry. If you look at the 15/30/60m, you may understand why.

The trade has an R:R of 3.9 : 1 to 5.1 : 1, so I don't worry about it too much. Even if I won this type of trade only 30% of the time, I'd still be victorious. Incidentally, I win more than 60% of the time.

Scientist

OK, but GBP looks strong. GBP often leads the way.