Baruch's Forex System Journal

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hi baruch,

what do you think will be the impact of the trade balance figures today on eur/usd?
maybe stronger than expected and a lower usd, stronger eur.
im thinking switching my short in eurusd to the long side - already well above two big figures profit in this one - and go long eur.
yesterday shorted usd/chf and sitting on a little profit there, although its has of course been offset by the eur/usd reaction, so its a kind of hedge for the eur/usd pos.

whats your reading?
 
Quote from rax:

hi baruch,

what do you think will be the impact of the trade balance figures today on eur/usd?
maybe stronger than expected and a lower usd, stronger eur.
im thinking switching my short in eurusd to the long side - already well above two big figures profit in this one - and go long eur.
yesterday shorted usd/chf and sitting on a little profit there, although its has of course been offset by the eur/usd reaction, so its a kind of hedge for the eur/usd pos.

whats your reading?
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Well, I think the import prices are the most important. The market focus on a rate hike, and a strong inflation number could send the greenback north. But I want to see the reports before I do anything.
 
Quote from Baruch:

Well, I think the import prices are the most important. The market focus on a rate hike, and a strong inflation number could send the greenback north. But I want to see the reports before I do anything.
More...

I can't find any consensus number for import prices (!) Consensus for Trade Balance: 42-43.
 
Quote from Baruch:

Well, I think the import prices are the most important. The market focus on a rate hike, and a strong inflation number could send the greenback north. But I want to see the reports before I do anything.
More...

that for shure, but the trade balance could focus the markets attention on the structural problems of the usd again -trade deficit - this would be a negative for the usd.
lets see what the news will bring at 8:30 or rather 14:30 in my timezone:D
 
Quote from rax:

that for shure, but the trade balance could focus the markets attention on the structural problems of the usd again -trade deficit - this would be a negative for the usd.
lets see what the news will bring at 8:30 or rather 14:30 in my timezone:D
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Hi again,

Yes, but i the last months there has not been so much attention to the trade deficit than before.

P.S. Do you use guaranteed orders?
 
Quote from Baruch:

Hi again,

Yes, but i the last months there has not been so much attention to the trade deficit than before.

P.S. Do you use guaranteed orders?
More...

Sorry: Yes, but in ...
 
Quote from Baruch:

Well, I think the import prices are the most important. The market focus on a rate hike, and a strong inflation number could send the greenback north. But I want to see the reports before I do anything.
More...

well, with the import price i think you focus more on the inflation/rate hike story, while im more focused on the deficit story.

by the way, just read that warren buffet lost $600 M betting on a weaker dollar over the last months - a report from berkshire to the sec. he is holding a volume of $18 billion(!) futures contracts. he is playing really big and i thing he will finally be right, allthough maybe not in a month or two.
 
will stay short in eurusd, i think unless we will see data that i very much out of line with expectations there will not be a big movement in the usd.

the sma 50 system is pretty much oscillating between long and short for the last days. what will bernie baruch do? wait till the data is out, i guess?
 
Quote from rax:

will stay short in eurusd, i think unless we will see data that i very much out of line with expectations there will not be a big movement in the usd.

the sma 50 system is pretty much oscillating between long and short for the last days. what will bernie baruch do? wait till the data is out, i guess?
More...

I am out of my long position with a 20 pips gain - and, yes, now I am waiting.
 
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