Baruch's Forex System Journal

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Quote from Baruch:

And one more:

Why not use a trailing stop?
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All depends what you mean by a trailing stop. I do adjust stops manually as I go, but no, I don't let positions just run unless I see something major brewing. My day trades turn into position trades occaisionally. Maybe once or twice per month. This latest Yen move could have been one of those. I just analyzed it wrong.

This is just my way of trading though. The guys who make epic money actually let their positions run. Contrary to popular belief on this site, scalpers are not the most profitable. Not by a long shot. Look at almost every trader who has made a fortune (say $100 mil or more): mostly position, some swing (Jones), and only one scalper I can think of (Baldwin). Thats only cause he was in the pit. No way he'd be able to do that online.

As far as automatically calculated stops are concerned, thats a losing game imho. I place stops where they make sense (like under a trendline, or a certain % retracement). Automatic trailing stops almost always get taken out when you shold still be in the market, or when you have given up too much if you set them loose.

Jay
 
just want to thank you ... after reading this journal

I have started looking at the very short term EMA

and find sometimes the dealers / hedge funds "gun stops"

when they get a few pips over the line after it has changed its slope ... therefore I am at least more aware and will not try to fade them ... because if I do it can be a quick 20 pips against me

been there ... done that .... :(
 
Quote from Jayford:

I don't complain if I take 90 tics on a trade (my last Euro trade). I don't have to take the entire move. As a market gets more and more extended, the odds of it coming in grow and I don't like to give up gains once I reach a target. I am a retracement trader primarily, so if I leave lots of pips on the table, so what, I'll get in again at a better price or miss it altogether and trade something else. There will always be opportunities someplace.

My targets depend on the market, but its all classical supp/resis stuff with trendline channels, Fib retracements, and previous highs/lows. Volume matters too for adjusting as I go. Once in a trade all I do is monitor volume, and related markets, but just the occaisional glance.

I use two monitors, but thats just cause I am a nomad. I'd have at least 4 if I ever remained in one place for long. Moving to the Caribbean in May BTW.

Jay
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Thanks, Ray. Caribbean sounds nice (and hot in May).
 
Quote from SethArb:

just want to thank you ... after reading this journal

I have started looking at the very short term EMA

and find sometimes the dealers / hedge funds "gun stops"

when they get a few pips over the line after it has changed its slope ... therefore I am at least more aware and will not try to fade them ... because if I do it can be a quick 20 pips against me

been there ... done that .... :(
More...

Hi SethArb,

Yes, it's a problem with those cruel stop-hunters. But if we are in a long move, the stops extends the move (like yesterday), when the stops-area gets hit.

P.S. Please keep us informed about your short term-strategy.
 
Quote from Baruch:

My system is long. I took the buy signal today in CHF and made 134 pips. Very nice.

Did I go flat to soon? I don't know, but the problem with the system is that it don't tell you when to take profit. You can't wait until there comes a sell signal. You will - many times - lose a lot of pips waiting for that.

Instead I use a trailing stop and look for tops etc. But you don't know if there's 0 or 500 pips more to gain in the move.

Maybe I am wrong? Maybe I should in the market always? Long until there comes a sell signal along - and short until their arrives a buy signal. OK, you will many times lose many pips, but some times you will get many more pips than you do when using a trailing stop.
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The system gave a buy signal in GBP (june future) around 1.8000 - and have not looked back since that. It's now more than 200 pips away...
 
Quote from Jayford:

All depends what you mean by a trailing stop. I do adjust stops manually as I go, but no, I don't let positions just run unless I see something major brewing. My day trades turn into position trades occaisionally. Maybe once or twice per month. This latest Yen move could have been one of those. I just analyzed it wrong.

This is just my way of trading though. The guys who make epic money actually let their positions run. Contrary to popular belief on this site, scalpers are not the most profitable. Not by a long shot. Look at almost every trader who has made a fortune (say $100 mil or more): mostly position, some swing (Jones), and only one scalper I can think of (Baldwin). Thats only cause he was in the pit. No way he'd be able to do that online.

As far as automatically calculated stops are concerned, thats a losing game imho. I place stops where they make sense (like under a trendline, or a certain % retracement). Automatic trailing stops almost always get taken out when you shold still be in the market, or when you have given up too much if you set them loose.

Jay
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Hi again,

OK, but you could let the market take you out (with a stop), instead of going out, when your target is hit? Or you could let the chart decide it - looking after broken trendlines, double tops etc., when you are long.
 
Quote from Jayford:

All depends what you mean by a trailing stop. I do adjust stops manually as I go, but no, I don't let positions just run unless I see something major brewing. My day trades turn into position trades occaisionally. Maybe once or twice per month. This latest Yen move could have been one of those. I just analyzed it wrong.

This is just my way of trading though. The guys who make epic money actually let their positions run. Contrary to popular belief on this site, scalpers are not the most profitable. Not by a long shot. Look at almost every trader who has made a fortune (say $100 mil or more): mostly position, some swing (Jones), and only one scalper I can think of (Baldwin). Thats only cause he was in the pit. No way he'd be able to do that online.

As far as automatically calculated stops are concerned, thats a losing game imho. I place stops where they make sense (like under a trendline, or a certain % retracement). Automatic trailing stops almost always get taken out when you shold still be in the market, or when you have given up too much if you set them loose.

Jay
More...

Hi again,

Scalping:

When the market is i a trading range, it's OK to scalp. But I agree with you: Scalping does'nt make you rich.
 
Quote from Baruch:

Hi again,

Scalping:

When the market is i a trading range, it's OK to scalp. But I agree with you: Scalping does'nt make you rich.
More...

Sorry - read: When the market is in a trading...
 
Quote from SethArb:

its very choppy and whippy tonight in Asian FX dealings

narrow range in CHF EUR GBP
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Hi SethArb,

Must be great for your scalping/short-term strategy?
 
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