Baruch's Forex System Journal

Baruch · May 25, 2004

Quote from SteveL91:

The problem with that, I've been finding, is two fold: 1) That doesn't allow much wiggle room; 2) The times that a 10pip s/l could be feasible (for me) is when there's already a strong move going on, and pyschologically, I have a hard time taking those kinds of trades. I always worry I'll get in as it fades. Really, the inability to pull the trigger has been more about me not trusting myself. Each day, I become more confident in my methodology; it's just a matter of time before I get things figured out and carve out my niche.

Yes, in trading confidence is everything (and timing).

Baruch · May 25, 2004

Quote from Chaw:

Hello Gang!

Any potential trades for the 25th May??

Point a beginner in the right direction!!

Cheers!

Thank you.

Hello Chaw,

So you are again asking for tips?!

OK, if you want to be a tipster, you must go to a chatroom. There you will find a lot of other tipsters waiting for their daily "fix".

You will find a chatrom here:

www.moneytec.com

P.S. Greet Mrs. Bunnygirl from me. She's making her calls live in the chatroom. She is a very kind lady.

Baruch · May 25, 2004

Quote from Kermit:

Hi Baruch,

Would you have any sort re-entry method to handle instances like the one nycderivtrader experienced? Thanks.

Kermit

Yes, if the charts and the action still says long, I will go long again. But I don't take big losses.

Baruch · May 25, 2004

"Other people's mistakes, I have noticed, often make us only more eager to try to do the same thing. Perhaps it is because in the breast of every man there burns not only that divine spark of discontent but the urge to "beat the game" and show himself smarther than the other fellow. In any case, only after we have repeated these errors for ourselves does their instructive effect sink home".

whog · May 25, 2004

nycderivtrader,

Instead of entering a position with full size, have you ever considered legging into a position? Also as the move goes against you, start legging out to help minimize losses. and remember, you can always re-enter the position if your signal is still valid.

Baruch · May 25, 2004

Quote from whog:

nycderivtrader,

Instead of entering a position with full size, have you ever considered legging into a position? Also as the move goes against you, start legging out to help minimize losses. and remember, you can always re-enter the position if your signal is still valid.

Good idea.

Baruch · May 25, 2004

8.00 GMT:
German IFO. Consensus: 96.1. Prior: 96.3.

14.00 GMT:
US Consumer Confidence. Consensus: 94. Range: 90-96.5. Prior: 92.9 (from 88.5).

A important number. Will the confidence rise again with troubles in Iraq and surging energy prices? Yes, says the consensus, bcause of the improved labor market.

nycderivtrader · May 25, 2004

Quote from whog:

nycderivtrader,

Instead of entering a position with full size, have you ever considered legging into a position? Also as the move goes against you, start legging out to help minimize losses. and remember, you can always re-enter the position if your signal is still valid.

Yep, I agree, it is a valid strategy- and in addition, if the trade moves against you, you get better rates as you lock in to your "max".

***There just is no simple ANSWER or SOLUTION to this problem. What it all comes down to is risk/reward and using the probabilities to the best of your ability/knowledge.***

My system is not finished, however, I will say that there is zero technical analysis involved. Because of this and the fact that I haven't finished, talking it over will do little good.

I have programmed the system in excel by myself, where I can know and learn what is going on- I feel that having someone's software program spit out some numbers (for a price!) will not teach me as much as if I go through all the leg work myself.

I ran some simulation trades over the course of 3 and a half years and I am hitting 33% return per currency each year. This is still the first trial run with no "tweaking" in the slightest bit. With greater trade selection, based on the system, I have little doubt that I will be able to bring this number higher.

One problem I currently have, as many do, (this system is in its first stage) is the drawdown, which I intend to be able to smooth. I know that when I am able to smooth it by choosing higher probability trades I will be able to bring the 33% up- to where, who knows.

Happy trading,

NYCDT

nycderivtrader · May 25, 2004

Quote from Kermit:

Hi Baruch,

Would you have any sort re-entry method to handle instances like the one nycderivtrader experienced? Thanks.

Kermit

When I was stopped at 34 for a loss of 20 I was not only disappointed in the loss, but even more so because I was correct in the direction of the EUR. We all have to decide how much a trade is worth (and remember, everyone always suggests a risk reward ratio of AT LEAST 2:1, if not 3:1).

I think the best way to handle these instances is just to look at your next trade as if you were never in that previous loss. Remember what happened, but don't be affected by it- as I said, I was disappointed, and looking back, I would have been better off with a wider SL- BUT, the trade could always have gone the other way and can hurt your account worse!

NYCDT

Baruch · May 25, 2004

Quote from Baruch:

Hello Chaw,

So you are again asking for tips?!

OK, if you want to be a tipster, you must go to a chatroom. There you will find a lot of other tipsters waiting for their daily "fix".

You will find a chatrom here:

www.moneytec.com

P.S. Greet Mrs. Bunnygirl from me. She's making her calls live in the chatroom. She is a very kind lady.

Hello again,

If you traded my system, you would now be ahead with about 50 pips in euro. And about 70 in GBP.