Hello Dr Gropewell- thank you for seeing me on such short notice.
No problem did you bring a newspaper like I asked?
Yes I brought Barrons.
Barrons? That's interesting- usually people bring the Times or something.
Well I'm not most people.
Ok lets get started. I like to have my patients just lay back on the couch pick up the paper and tell me what bothers you, what get's your attention, what turns you on. Ok?
I'll try.
> On the cover a bull and bear stare at each other.
Do you like animals?
I like Bulls.
Not bears? Interesting go on.
It says despite a 4% slide stick with stocks.
And what does page 2 say?
It's a bear market according to Alan Ableson.
Did he say that?
He said it just might be.
Full of conviction this man Ableson?
He goes both ways!
He does? Interesting. Go on.
Well Doug Ramsey is quoted he's from Leuthold Research. He says virtually no distribution from smart money on stocks- that bothers me.
Why?
I had been spotting distribution days myself- if it wasn't the smart money it was mom and pop beating me a seasoned investor out the door. That's not good.
You don't like being associated with the average person do you?
Could the average person afford this session?
Go on please.
Tues the 6th. Has the revision to non farm productivity-- worried about that.
Most people it's the future, war with Iran, greenhouse gasses... with you it's productivity in the workplace.
Yes as a non worker it is very important to me that everyone else be productive in the work place.
Tell me more.
Well what's confusing is historically after one day big drops in the stockmarket the returns have been great shortly thereafter. Since 1979 the market has dropped 3% or more 38 times. The average return in the next 60 days is 6.9% near 7%! and it happened in 31 of 38 cases.
That sounds good.
But historically these big drops comes at the end of dragged out declines not in the beginning.
What does that infer to you?
Maybe it wasn't a correction at all. Maybe in order to go higher stocks had to be artificially roiled to spike sentiment indicators and wash out complacency. The financial stocks though... there is real trouble there I fear.
What about growth stocks?
Well there's a guy interviewed Joe McNay is his name he gives a bunch of dangerous growth plays- almost seems a misfit for this issue.
Do you like any of them?
No. Maybe Focus Media & Vertex Pharm that's it.
Well two is better than none. I get the feeling I have to repair a relationship between you and stocks.
Well we need to - for your sake.
My sake?
Yes your payment will be in the form of a stock pick derived from this issue of Barrons!
What!
Yes on page M5 in fact there is a mention of Itron
What tron?
ITRI> they have made a $1.6 Billion acquisition and it has largely been missed by investors because of the big decline. I like ITRI already and this merger with the privately held Actaris from Luxembourg will create a global leader in next generation meter reading technology. No 1 for electric meters. No 2 for gas. And no 4 for water. This will be my payment to you.
What!
I have to go now.
But.
Thank you for seeing me and thank you for
playing the B*A*R*R*O*N*S G*A*M*E*- therapeutic edition!
No problem did you bring a newspaper like I asked?
Yes I brought Barrons.
Barrons? That's interesting- usually people bring the Times or something.
Well I'm not most people.
Ok lets get started. I like to have my patients just lay back on the couch pick up the paper and tell me what bothers you, what get's your attention, what turns you on. Ok?
I'll try.
> On the cover a bull and bear stare at each other.
Do you like animals?
I like Bulls.
Not bears? Interesting go on.
It says despite a 4% slide stick with stocks.
And what does page 2 say?
It's a bear market according to Alan Ableson.
Did he say that?
He said it just might be.
Full of conviction this man Ableson?
He goes both ways!
He does? Interesting. Go on.
Well Doug Ramsey is quoted he's from Leuthold Research. He says virtually no distribution from smart money on stocks- that bothers me.
Why?
I had been spotting distribution days myself- if it wasn't the smart money it was mom and pop beating me a seasoned investor out the door. That's not good.
You don't like being associated with the average person do you?
Could the average person afford this session?
Go on please.
Tues the 6th. Has the revision to non farm productivity-- worried about that.
Most people it's the future, war with Iran, greenhouse gasses... with you it's productivity in the workplace.
Yes as a non worker it is very important to me that everyone else be productive in the work place.
Tell me more.
Well what's confusing is historically after one day big drops in the stockmarket the returns have been great shortly thereafter. Since 1979 the market has dropped 3% or more 38 times. The average return in the next 60 days is 6.9% near 7%! and it happened in 31 of 38 cases.
That sounds good.
But historically these big drops comes at the end of dragged out declines not in the beginning.
What does that infer to you?
Maybe it wasn't a correction at all. Maybe in order to go higher stocks had to be artificially roiled to spike sentiment indicators and wash out complacency. The financial stocks though... there is real trouble there I fear.
What about growth stocks?
Well there's a guy interviewed Joe McNay is his name he gives a bunch of dangerous growth plays- almost seems a misfit for this issue.
Do you like any of them?
No. Maybe Focus Media & Vertex Pharm that's it.
Well two is better than none. I get the feeling I have to repair a relationship between you and stocks.
Well we need to - for your sake.
My sake?
Yes your payment will be in the form of a stock pick derived from this issue of Barrons!
What!
Yes on page M5 in fact there is a mention of Itron
What tron?
ITRI> they have made a $1.6 Billion acquisition and it has largely been missed by investors because of the big decline. I like ITRI already and this merger with the privately held Actaris from Luxembourg will create a global leader in next generation meter reading technology. No 1 for electric meters. No 2 for gas. And no 4 for water. This will be my payment to you.
What!
I have to go now.
But.
Thank you for seeing me and thank you for
playing the B*A*R*R*O*N*S G*A*M*E*- therapeutic edition!
