And what about the Spanish flu? And, as gwb-trading pointed out, polio?
Barr calls coronavirus lockdowns the ‘greatest intrusion on civil liberties’ since slavery
- Thread starter Frederick Foresight
- Start date
A complex virus that evolved in bat's and some of the toughest immune systems in the animal kingdom.
Well, I think the Spanish Flu's estimated CFR was between 10 and 20 percent, right? While Polio didn't just kill, you had a pretty decent chance of getting paralyzed, so that's kind of a big deal.
Far cry from a .4% CFR for under 65 years old with he vast majority recovering fully and quickly, wouldn't you say?
This comes down to subjectivity again. I've mentioned this before. If you (Fred) were President and you knew you could save 1 life if you shut the whole country down for 6 months, you'd probably go "the cost of shutdown outweighs the number of lives saved. Very sorry, ol' chap. You're expendable." But if you knew shutting down for 1 month would save 20 million lives, its a no brainer. So somewhere between those goal posts is an area where the number of lives and cost of shutting down becomes a tough call. And wherever that point is for you, my point might be slightly or even vastly different.
Right now, I (and many others like me) believe that the cost of the shutdown was way more than we should have paid for the risk the virus posed. The other side (yours, if I am guessing correctly) believe we haven't paid enough in the cost of shutdown and should be pushing harder to save more lives because the risk is greater. Based on the numbers I see in the data provided, I cannot understand where that concern comes from.
Hopefully I explained my perspective.
I appreciate you pointing out that my opinion is vastly different than yours, and I'm hoping you're doing this not in a snarky way, but in a way that simply notes that you and I share differing opinions. But I'd really like to hear why your opinion is vastly different other than just you implying "it is vastly different".
I'm being genuine when I state that I am pleased with being able to engage with you again (and others like Nine Ender, etc) without getting into flame wars. I'd like to continue to that into the future if at all possible.
But I guess we both have to want that if it is to happen.
I think this virus is far more insidious and far-reaching than you give it credit for. I tend to align my opinions with those who are expert in immunology and epidemiology. The people who are prone to underestimating this virus are not the people that you or I would likely go to for advice or treatment if we had a medical problem. I think this distinction is notable.
That's a fair opinion. Unfortunately, I've noted many times where those experts you are aligning opinions on have been wrong - sometimes very wrong - with forecasts and guessing. As the data gets better and better (which unfortunately comes only through time) we will be able to see the risk quantified. Right now, the numbers seem to be pointing towards the fact that we overreacted greatly. Again, this is my opinion.
True. But when faced with greater uncertainty, it is safer to have a wider margin for error. Moving slowly in the dark beats running.
Possibly. But the business owner who built a business for the last 40 years of his life and who is dying while he cannot open might disagree with that assessment.
The parents who are watching their kids get more and more depressed in isolation because their schools are closed might disagree with that assessment.
That kinda thing. Easy for you and I who have had little interruption to our lives outside of a minor inconvenience to say such things. The view from the cheap seats is always nice.
sorry for double posting this, but it is relevant to the discussion on whether civil rights are being challenged unfairly because of the COVID crisis. I'd be interested if you believe this is off the wall as I do or defensible.
Illinois school district restricting any student who travels to a state on the travel ban list from virtual learning when they return. Please read that again.
If you travel to a state that is not approved by the county, when you get back you cannot learn from the safety of your home in a virtual environment.
How is this even remotely logical?
Illinois school district restricting any student who travels to a state on the travel ban list from virtual learning when they return. Please read that again.
If you travel to a state that is not approved by the county, when you get back you cannot learn from the safety of your home in a virtual environment.
How is this even remotely logical?