Baron's Crypto Trading Journal

[semperfrosty]

If it were a digital currency with economic backing, then it would have value. Crypto has no such economic underpinning. It's all just evangelism and whim, which is why its volatility is so feverish.

Part of the value of gold,for instance,is the cost of extraction.

I remember that you dont buy into the concept of crypto 'mining',nonetheless,it takes an investment to remove the value from the source to your own account.

Once in your account,you have something that people want and you can sell for a premium.

Iron ore is just dirt.You invest and open a mine,load the dirt on a train and send it to the port.

Once it gets to port,people pay millions to own it.

And I get that it has utility,but still,you extracted something from the earth that people wanted and assigned value to.This is the 'economic backing' that BTC has.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

I remember that you dont buy into the concept of crypto 'mining',nonetheless,it takes an investment to remove the value from the source to your own account.

Puzzles? Not much of a parallel, is it?

 

[semperfrosty]

Puzzles? Not much of a parallel, is it?

The parallel I was making was the investment and the perceived value.

If no one wants it,no one will bother mining it.Just like gold or iron ore or anything else.

 

[semperfrosty]

Dont forget peeps,Apple was 11 cents in 1984.

Anyone who was looking for a stock for the future and thought:'I think this thing could go somewhere',probably got rich.All while their neighbours probably scoffed and asked why they didnt stick with the 'railroads'.haha

And also dont forget that they were selling computers to rich people for 20 years before everyone had to have their computers and phones and their stock rocketed.

Its still early.This is an education period,just like for the generation that had to buy a computer for the house so the kids could type their assignments and slowly realised how much better than a typewriter it was.

 

[The_Krakenite]

Consider Soros's theory of reflexivity.

I'd rather not. I own the Alchemy of Finance, and re-read it right after reading it as I could not make any sense of the gibberish. Even Soros admits he had trouble trying to make any sense of what he wrote for the first draft.

I gave up and figured either it was nonsense or I was too stupid. Then I read Taleb's rants on Soro's book, and sure enough, Taleb also referred to it as nonsensical trash. Well, that's the two of us then.

 

[piezoe]

Baron this is great! I love seeing stuff like this and ET getting back to it's roots - educating, inspiring and helping people engage with markets of all kinds. Thanks for doing this. I will not be here as I'm scared to death of crypto but I wish all you guys the best and hope you all make a fortune with all of it.

You're a smart man (or woman).

 

[themickey]

You guys on ET are traders - riiiight???
With crypto, my suggestion is, forget your beliefs, forget your biases.

Crypto is not only volatile, but has huge moves, huge swings/trends.

Learn how to take advantage, there is a opportunity here handed to you on a plate.
But for some traders, they would rather argue semantics than put their skills into practise.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

But for some traders, they would rather argue semantics than put their skills into practise.

Kind of like what you’re doing now?

In any event, I’m only arguing with the True Believer HODLers, not the short-term traders.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

I'd rather not. I own the Alchemy of Finance, and re-read it right after reading it as I could not make any sense of the gibberish. Even Soros admits he had trouble trying to make any sense of what he wrote for the first draft.

I gave up and figured either it was nonsense or I was too stupid. Then I read Taleb's rants on Soro's book, and sure enough, Taleb also referred to it as nonsensical trash. Well, that's the two of us then.

The concept is simple enough to understand, and it makes perfect sense. The application is the thing, though. I only referred to it to point out there is no fundamental benchmark upon which to gauge crypto’s epic zigs and zags. Not that I personally rely on fundamentals for my own short-term trading, but I take comfort knowing there is an underlying basis. Clearly, you don’t need that comfort. And so I will let you join the other brave gladiators in battle.

 

[SunTrader]

Kind of like what you’re doing now?

In any event, I’m only arguing with the True Believer HODLers, not the short-term traders.

Uhhh no, reality is what you are arguing against.

BTW note, as I've said previously, I am in neither of the two categories above.