Baron's Crypto Trading Journal
- Thread starter Baron
- Start date
Well, even though they're one and the same, it's not the bubble that's the problem. It's the mania (or rather hysteria) that's the problem. Bubbles are great way to make money IMO. Hysterias are simply useless noise, which we hear endlessly on social media. I mean, all these endless rationalizations and justifications on why Bitcoin must go up to $1M and beyond....
I'm gonna jump on you... Lol...Or they might actually get creative and come up with a real tangible solution. I'm optimistic that Bitcoin itself is here to stay. The technology is solid IMO. It's the bubble mania that is the problem, which has nothing to do with Bitcoin's origional use case. But I better shut my mouth before everyone here jumps on me.
Where is the bubble?? Isn't it money printing? Isn't it real estate? Isn't it government's spending money to kill people? Spending money to keep themselves in power? Those are the bubbles. Bitcoin fixes all of this.
Deep down, 99% of us need a fair system. We are caught in a rat race we can't win. We don't benefit from the fiat Ponzi scheme. That is why people become real estate investors. But they are just going from one bubble to the next.
Trust me... Just like I think today that I could have had 1 Bitcoin for $100 or $1000 years ago, people will think that they could have had 100,000 sats for $68 now. 100k sats will be huge one day.
Bitcoin will go to $1M, then $5M, then $10M and higher...
Bitcoin is only $65k right now, though, so first, it will go to $100k, then $200k, then $300k, and higher and higher
Enjoy the journey
[just got back from a very nice r&r]
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Fiat is a debt-based slavery monetary system
student loans, 30 yr mortgage, credit card debts, helocs = lots of indentured slaves working many hours for decades
But not on ET... Everyone on ET is the best traders
I'm a horrible trader, though. Bitcoiners are horrible traders, we just buy and hodl... but we're not slaves of fiat
@Frederick Foresight
Okay, so this is a pretty legend quote. Kind of invalidates some of what I wanted to discuss with you lol.
I think we’re at an interesting time, where the worldview of BTC revolutionaries and traditional financiers kind of overlaps. They can extend the BTC % rally of past cycles into $1M/BTC with conviction, and the rest of us are seeing a familiar hype cycle of a commodity.
In a few years one of the two hypothesis will be invalidated by price. (I hope) most BTC maximalists will re-evaluate their views if we don’t crash through 250K and 500K in time. And the in the event BTC does reach those prices, the rest of us should be updating our view and admitting something is occurring that we do not currently foresee.
You’re extremely skeptical nature toward BTC comes across as a little overblown actually. Are you above 50 or 60 years old? Past a certain point it seems like the it gets harder for some to conceptualize the viewpoint of a new development/generation if too many priors are foreign to your experience.
I think it’s fairly plausible that BTC will be treated like a commodity, and after the adoption inflows cease will have a long-term return similar to inflation. There’s utility in a limited, cheaply stored, non-decaying asset that has a consensus of value, and hence resiliency to inflation. With the embedding of BTC into mainstream portfolio allocation, it seems like consensus of value won’t be completely fading anytime soon.
Even if BTC goes down to 30K and flatlines for years a lot of these early adopters will remain completely vindicated and entrenched in their beliefs for a long time to come because they bought at $100. Your comparisons with beanie babies and plates come across as fairly cheap and straw-manish because BTC clearly has qualities absent in those items such as being instantly and cheaply transferred globally, highly liquid, and permissionlessly transparent.
It’s actually a wonder to me that you spend the time to consistently post so much with such a bearish sentiment. Seems like a waste of time and energy, but I guess I don’t have much room to talk because I finally cracked and made a reply to you haha.
I think Spectre here has the most rational view out of everyone here. Non-yielding commodities have close to zero real returns in the long haul, but volatility makes for good trading opportunities in the mean time. If you learned how to navigate the blockchain you could be trading arbs yielding 10bps a day or more on the back of all this uneducated flow.
At least find a way to get short if you have such a strong opinion about the uselessness of the asset class so you can have some skin in the game besides idle chatter. Or maybe talk a little less frequently and insistently if you can’t monetize your view yet.
This I can agree with. I know some people will say that bitcoin might just live along side gold for example, but I don't see it playing out like this. It will be all or nothing.
I wouldn't be so bullish on bitcoin if I wasn't so bearish on central banks. The shit happening right now is honestly worse than Covid. I could at least logically understand why we had to stay home, why businesses had to close, why they had to give out stimulus cheques, etc. It made sense for the first year.
But what is happening right now given the insane spending, open borders, encouragement of crime in blue states, lack of holding people accountable for crime, and the list goes on... to be something designed to destroy society as a last chance to grab control. This is absolutely "end stage" fiat shenanigans. The government needs to go trillions into debt, while at the same time spending more on interest payments than on anything else, while also unable to drop interest rates, and gaslight us into thinking the economy is good while TikTok is packed with people who are barely keeping it together. There is no way to solve this problem since its all a fiat problem.
I see no other solution than bitcoin.
Those days are over. If you live in the Western world, any second house used for rental income is imploding now not just due to rent-controls, but draconian house-squatter laws.
Real Estate is one of the most riskiest assets now. One of the reasons is that any immigrant being jacked and shoved into our over-packed cities who catches onto house-squatter laws can 'legally' take your home away. This right now is an epidemic across Canada. Not that it's only immigrants taking your keys away.
In the end... the taxpayer gets screwed again. That's just how the system is rigged.
In Europe where squatting has been an epidemic, you can now get services to help resolve the issue... Basically mean thugs with baseball bats. You pay 1 to 3 months rent equivalent and your problem is solved.
This is an interesting peripheral topic in and of itself, and it does kind of feed into certain worldviews, BTC maximalism being one of them.
A lot of the time we develop technology and only after the fact start to understand its detrimental effects. I think there’s a serious downside to over-exposure of information made possible by all our advancements in communications and media. It can really distort our view of reality.
The news media is fairly centralized and a large amount of capital flows through it. I don’t think many would protest that there is often a bias in the way it present informations, on one side or the other. Even more “organic” communities on social media can give a distorted perception when reflexivity kicks in with the use of algos, let alone with trolls/disingenuous people participating, bots, etc.
I think many of us don’t discount info we receive outside our 1st hand or 2nd hand experience heavily enough. National or global reality is really hard to get a grasp on because our perspective is so limited in scope. And many of the problems you’re citing are definitely real. Injustice, poverty, corruption in centralized power…
But I’m not sold on the idea that things are way worse than ever. I certainly hear that said, but I live in a relatively nice suburb outside a major city in the US, and despite some ideological differences people generally get along. There’s little crime. A lot of people live paycheck to paycheck, but that’s true of low income and high income brackets. And although it’s probably difficult for many, they find a way to make it work and we don’t have people living in the streets or starving.
Now I could just live in a peculiarly fortunate area, but all my relatives and friends report a similar situation in different areas, when speaking about their actual lived experience and not 3rd party narratives. My friend has traveled to at least half a dozen countries in the past few years and from what he saw life is pretty normal in all those places too. I live in a blue state with fairly favorable laws to tenants, and rental real estate is still alive and well, profitable with relatively low variance.
There are real problems but human resiliency goes a long way. As problems get more serious and noticeable in everyday life, we will divert more of our efforts to solving them. Not just from a standpoint of objective accuracy or profitability, going too far into a sort of doomer mentality can have a real drain on well-being and quality of life.