Baron's Crypto Trading Journal

[Pekelo]

detractors

You misspelled objective observers. In the main time I still haven't got an answer to:

1. What is the exit strategy? How will a crypto fan know when they have reached the Moon? Judging by the inability of getting out at 60+K or even 50+K last year, why should we have any confidence in their guidance? It is quite possible BTC will fluctuate between 16K and 30K for the next months/years, but because they are holding out for 100+K, they will never realize a profit or take advantage of the movements, BOTH ways.

2. Nobody dared to answer my hypothetical about choosing between Bitcoin being actually what it was intended, a low inflation, low volatility, stable currency OR a gazillion making high profit investment vehicle. I wonder, why?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

You misspelled objective observers. In the main time I still haven't got an answer to:

1. What is the exit strategy? How will a crypto fan know when they have reached the Moon? Judging by the inability of getting out at 60+K or even 50+K last year, why should we have any confidence in their guidance? It is quite possible BTC will fluctuate between 16K and 30K for the next months/years, but because they are holding out for 100+K, they will never realize a profit or take advantage of the movements, BOTH ways.

2. Nobody dared to answer my hypothetical about choosing between Bitcoin being actually what it was intended, a low inflation, low volatility, stable currency OR a gazillion making high profit investment vehicle. I wonder, why?

I don't have an answer for either unfortunately. I assume though that either people are angling for the big one or are believers in this being the way of the future. I don't imagine there is an in between. What I definitely have seen are folks delighting when the crypto market goes against Baron but growing quiet when it moves in his direction. I suspect it to be "Crypto Schadenfreude"

 

[maxinger]

Those waiting for mother-of-all-mega-tulipmania should continue to
wait patiently.
Such a thing happens once in a millennium.
It might / might not happen in this decade.

Meanwhile, go trade other things.

 

[Baron]

You misspelled objective observers. In the main time I still haven't got an answer to:

1. What is the exit strategy? How will a crypto fan know when they have reached the Moon? Judging by the inability of getting out at 60+K or even 50+K last year, why should we have any confidence in their guidance? It is quite possible BTC will fluctuate between 16K and 30K for the next months/years, but because they are holding out for 100+K, they will never realize a profit or take advantage of the movements, BOTH ways.

2. Nobody dared to answer my hypothetical about choosing between Bitcoin being actually what it was intended, a low inflation, low volatility, stable currency OR a gazillion making high profit investment vehicle. I wonder, why?

1. The exit strategy is never to sell it. As long as it remains an asset that you can borrow against, there's really no reason to sell. It would be way more sensible to borrow against it for your cash needs and pay the 6% interest that would be to sell it and pay 40% in taxes.

2. Intention means nothing other than the creator didn't have a perfect crystal ball to see the future through. Ethereum is a perfect example of this. Vitalik Buterin set out to build Ethereum as a "blockchain of blockchains" that had a lot of potential but no real use cases at the time. When asked what surprised him the most about how people have used Ethereum over the recent years, his reply was "The creation NFTs. I never saw that coming."

 

[Baron]

Nobody dared to answer my hypothetical about choosing between Bitcoin being actually what it was intended, a low inflation, low volatility, stable currency OR a gazillion making high profit investment vehicle. I wonder, why?

Another thought:

The intention of Bitcoin in Satoshi's original white paper was "an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party."

So you've applied some intentions to Bitcoin that actually never existed. The attributes of low inflation, low volatility and price stability were never mentioned at all.

https://nakamotoinstitute.org/bitcoin/

 

[Pekelo]

1. The exit strategy is never to sell it.

2. Intention means nothing other than the creator didn't have a perfect crystal ball to see the future through.

1. This works for stocks and CEOs. But as long as your DCA is still below cost, you don't have to worry about paying taxes. Nothing goes up forever, even Elon learnt that.

2. As much as I agree that usage beats intentions, you didn't answer the question.

 

[Pekelo]

The attributes of low inflation, low volatility and price stability were never mentioned at all.

Those were not in the white paper but that is all what we hear from crypto fans:

1. Low inflation. It is claimed by the fans.

2. Low volatility. It is a necessity for a payment vehicle.

3. Price stability. It is a necessity for a currency.

So those attributes kinda come with the territory, what Bitcoin is supposed to fill.

Another thought about "without trusted 3rd party". Since they need exchanges for price discovery, those are the "needed to trust 3rd party" even though they were not part of the system, originally. And as it turned out they are the weak link in the chain....

 

[Specterx]

You misspelled objective observers. In the main time I still haven't got an answer to:

1. What is the exit strategy? How will a crypto fan know when they have reached the Moon? Judging by the inability of getting out at 60+K or even 50+K last year, why should we have any confidence in their guidance? It is quite possible BTC will fluctuate between 16K and 30K for the next months/years, but because they are holding out for 100+K, they will never realize a profit or take advantage of the movements, BOTH ways.

2. Nobody dared to answer my hypothetical about choosing between Bitcoin being actually what it was intended, a low inflation, low volatility, stable currency OR a gazillion making high profit investment vehicle. I wonder, why?

Examine the fate of gold bugs and you'll get your answers. Worst case they buy high and sell low earning losses, best case they hold forever and DCA consistently and earn less (especially on a volatility-adjusted basis) than in almost any other asset class.

 

[themickey]

Examine the fate of gold bugs and you'll get your answers.

One byproduct result of my trading adventures has been the realization of the huge amount of bs humans gravitate toward, that we both speak and believe.
Gold is a shiny example of bs, for some gawd only known reason we are attracted to this lump of shit.
Crypto is the same, trading is the same, I buy some script to sell to another mug.
It's that and sex which keeps the world spinning.

 

[semperfrosty]

One byproduct result of my trading adventures has been the realization of the huge amount of bs humans gravitate toward, that we both speak and believe.
Gold is a shiny example of bs, for some gawd only known reason we are attracted to this lump of shit.
Crypto is the same, trading is the same, I buy some script to sell to another mug.
It's that and sex which keeps the world spinning.

Quick shout out to beer also.