Baron's Crypto Trading Journal

Pekelo said:
In my sentence I was referring to 2 things, making a completely new coin (very easy)and forking (quite easy).

Anyhow let me tell you who my crypto hero is and why:

Charlie Lee. In just an hour work he created Litecoin, what was technologically superior to Bitcoin both in speed and tx numbers. So he proved in year 2, that there was nothing special or unique about bitcoin. But the real deal was what he did a few years ago; he realized Litecoin was WASTLY OVERVALUED and CASHED OUT! He actually did that pretty close to its ATH.

He was smart enough to realize that he just got lucky with his invention and took the opportunity and didn't hold too long. Cathie Wood should have asked him for advice last year...

How many Bitcoin (or whatever) whales are there who can't read a chart or the sign of the times (Super BOwl ads) and they let their holdings drop in value by 70%? Oh the Winklewii with their Harward education....

Anyhow, as a farewell to you, let's mention the rightfully hated Crag Wright, his BSV is also technically superior to BTC, so if you are into tech, you should switch to that. But as we noted before, nobody is in it for the tech.

In a few days I will post my crypto predictions, you may want to take notes. I have premonitions about crypto... :)

P.S.: I know I am not changing any cultist's mind, but I like to say, I told you so!
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I don't disagree that there couldn't be a better bitcoin, and maybe if it was to start today, given how bandwidth is huge and storage is cheap, it would look different. But we have what we have. If you see hashrate crash, that is a problem, but even in this market it continues going up. So what you and I think doesn't matter. The market is somehow putting in a shit ton of resources into mining. The about of nodes validating transactions is also forever growing.

I encourage people to try and make a better bitcoin, and if it reaches critical mass, we can all use that. But it just won't happen. That is the point I'm trying to make.
 
schizo said:
As I stated elsewhere, I don't think majority of the crypto holders give a crap about these issues. All they care about is making a quick buck. Seriously, do you think whales like Cuban or Saylor even considers "anonymity" or "transparency", or how BTC will revolutionize the world for the better, when they invest in BTC? I dunno about that.
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Most no, but some do. In the end, it won't matter. The use case for bitcoin will become more and more apparent as central banks fuck up more and more.
 
virtusa said:
And where is his conclusion that BTC is better and that we should switch to BTC? Because that is what it is all about. Is BTC better than fiat currencies?

I also see that the projected deficit is massively lower after the 2 years with a spike.

Baron (-68%) lost more than Turkey with their hyperinflation (-40%) in 2022.

You should take the numbers of the 20 biggest economies in the world to see what will happen. Instead you try to find the worst economies in the world.
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Once again, patience. The Fed is backed into a corner. Budgets will never balance, and interest rates will bankrupt the government even more if they stay where they are. The numbers when the entire 31 trillion has to be rolled over is that half of the budget will be taken up by interest payments which is 100% not sustainable. This is why everyone says the Fed will have to pivot on rates. But when that happens, what will happen to inflation? Jesus, right not they are trying to induce mass unemployment just to bring inflation down. How fucked up is that?
 
Frederick Foresight said:
You strike me as a financial prepper. "World as we know it is gonna end!" And when it doesn't:
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How long does the average world reserve currency last if you go back 500 years? Where is the USD on this timeline? Are you saying you can't imagine USD ever falling out of favor?

I'm not saying the world is ending, but I'm saying the next 20 years will be nothing like the last 20 years in terms of all things related to money.
 
NoahA said:
How long does the average world reserve currency last if you go back 500 years? Where is the USD on this timeline? Are you saying you can't imagine USD ever falling out of favor?
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But who's to say it ends now, in your lifetime? That's a wild guess, and likely a wrong one.

NoahA said:
I'm not saying the world is ending, but I'm saying the next 20 years will be nothing like the last 20 years in terms of all things related to money.
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Possibly. Who knows? But that could very well include BTC.
 
NoahA said:
Once again, patience. The Fed is backed into a corner. Budgets will never balance, and interest rates will bankrupt the government even more if they stay where they are. The numbers when the entire 31 trillion has to be rolled over is that half of the budget will be taken up by interest payments which is 100% not sustainable. This is why everyone says the Fed will have to pivot on rates. But when that happens, what will happen to inflation? Jesus, right not they are trying to induce mass unemployment just to bring inflation down. How fucked up is that?
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But what does all this got to do with BTC? It ain't like replacing USD with BTC (on a national level) will somehow magically make our national debt disappear. Or that individual buying BTC will make inflation come down.

But we do know for certain that massive number of people lost huge amounts of money when BTC crashed from its ATH and exchanges, one after another, fell like dominoes
 
schizo said:
But what does all this got to do with BTC? It ain't like replacing USD with BTC (on a national level) will somehow magically make our national debt disappear. Or that individual buying BTC will make inflation come down.

But we do know for certain that massive number of people lost huge amounts of money when BTC crashed from its ATH and exchanges, one after another, fell like dominoes
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Agreed. But if we are truly going to do this metric justice, we have to consider how much wealth the Fed has plundered from everyone else through inflation (ie. not the top 10%). When you look back 20 or 30 years, you see how much more equitable things were. Now people are just debt slaves, going from month to month simply to survive.

It won't make the debt go away, and I have no idea how a collapse even happens, but I do know that if you have something else to jump to, you do.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
But who's to say it ends now, in your lifetime? That's a wild guess, and likely a wrong one.
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I think its one of those things that when it starts to happen, things happen quick. I doubt it will end in some catastrophic collapse perhaps, but more and more people will learn to not hold cash or USTs, and well, all hell can break loose at that point really since from my understanding, USTs are the backbone of the financial system. So maybe it can be a dramatic collapse. We saw already major currency things in the past decade with a de-peg of the Swiss Franc, then the gold standard elimination in 1971, so who knows, maybe something big can happen in this decade which forever puts the system on a new path.

Here is a great collection of charts. Something similar happened after 2008 when QE showed up, and perhaps another pivotal moment is upon us already.

https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
 
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