Baron's Crypto Trading Journal

Baron said:
Well first of all, we need to define what 2022 actually represented. So many people are like, "2022 was such a terrible year for crypto!"

Um, actually no. It was a great year because the weakest links in the chain broke, and that paves a much more solid path moving forward. The crypto community really needed a year like 2022 to happen so that regulators will finally do what they've been called upon to do for many years, which is to implement a regulatory framework that gives all market participants a field to play the game on. What we've had so far is one big basketball game but with no lines marked on the court, and no referees and accountable coaches to oversee the activities of the players. And with no painted lines for out-of-bounds, three-pointers, half-court, and free throws, the game became one big clusterfuck of activity but nobody can actually tell who is playing, who is regulating, who is coaching, and who is scamming. That's what the crypto game has been like for years. But despite those limitations, the problem is that players want to continue playing, and spectators want to continue speculating and betting on the outcomes of the sport, even with a lack of clear rules... until a series of fraudulent events happen that leaves everybody feeling fucked over. And that's when people start going nuts by demanding rules, referees, coaches, shot clocks and painted lines.

And that's where we are at in 2022. The initial fun of a new technology and industry was great to witness and be a part of, but in order for everyone to move forward, just like in any sport we need regulations and boundaries put in place so we can all know if a game participant of any type, meaning a player, a coach, a team owner, a stadium, a referee, etc. is violating the rules and fucking with the core ethics, honesty and integrity of the game.

So I have two messages to give as we move forward:

Message number one is for all of the crypto fans out there. Don't waver in your conviction as we move forward. The game rules are just now being put in place, and that only bodes well for you. The more rules that are implemented, the more institutional money will come into the space. And when that happens, it will drive the market higher at a much faster pace than you have ever witnessed so far. And for a mathematically sound opportunity like Bitcoin, it's absolutely the best bet you can make for your investing future.

Message number two is for all of the crypto haters. One of the biggest lessons that you will learn is that when you try to cling onto a specific snapshot of life and resist new technologies and ways of thinking, you eventually discover that there's nothing left to hold onto. The pace of change never stops and the rest of the world moves on without you, and no matter how much you want to believe that the current way that you've been brought up is the only way, the next generations to follow will show you that the only true path of moving forward in life is not clinging on to what you are familiar with, but instead letting go and embracing the present moment of constant change because it's all you have in this life to be a part of. Now, you certainly have the right to live and dwell in the memories of your cassette tapes, fax machines, newspapers on your driveway delivered by the paperboy, and physical buildings called banks that hold metal coins and paper bills. But you must understand that life moves on no matter how much you want to cling to the past, and just like when the day came that you had to lay the flip phone down and embrace the smartphone, the day will come when you'll have to get rid of the cash underneath your mattress and embrace your crypto wallet.

Cheers to 2023!
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That’s all well and good. But how much are you down?
 
NoahA said:
Its kind of like dealing with a bully.
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You should be following @virtusa

Spend some time reading his posts, then go back through the past two decades of ET looking for his past ET aliases and those posts.

You want to trade ES for living?

Follow virtusa.
 
Baron said:
he crypto community really needed a year like 2022 to happen so that regulators will finally do what they've been called upon to do for many years, which is to implement a regulatory framework that gives all market participants a field to play the game on.
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I generally liked your post, and your analogy is excellent, but I'm not sure if I like the idea of waiting for the government to protect me. I agree that institutional money is perhaps necessary for accelerated growth, but perhaps not. If everyone decides to buy some bitcoin and transact with it, who gives a fuck what institutions do? Internet came about because people were logging in online. Institutions see the trend, read the market, listen to their customers, and then decide if they think its going somewhere or not.

Government regulation will make people feel more safe, but its almost ironic for governments to give bitcoin their blessing because it in some way means that they are signaling that holding dollars is a losing game. Imagine if your wife gave you permission to fuck anyone you wanted, assuming that she thinks she is so beautiful and such a good lover that nobody else will compare to her. No fucking way. She keeps your dick locked up because she knows how easy it will be for you to stray and not come back once she lets you taste a little bit of freedom. :D I don't want to get married because I don't think I should be giving someone the right to tell me who I can and cannot fuck, and likewise, I don't want the government to think that I need their regulation and blessing to tell me that its not safe to invest in the exact same thing that will bring down their own monetary system.

I really do think the people should have the right to choose what they want, and the government needs to listen to the people. I realize its mostly a pipe dream, but this should be the main ethos.

Government regulation is really powerless to stop huge crimes anyway. Who goes to jail? What sorts of scams have they prevented? The only thing the government does is paper over problems. Well with bitcoin, they won't be able to do shit once your bitcoin is gone. Hey, maybe if my bitcion is stolen and they give me fiat as a replacement so I can go out and buy more bitcoin, imagine how wonderful this will be for bitcoin price! Perhaps they can force exchanges to show proof of reserves, but lots of smart guys out there already show how problematic this is.

So I'm not really sure what I want the government to do for me in this space. I understand that designating all the shit coins as securities opens up the books for scrutiny, which prevents US exchanges from selling such shit coins, but hasn't the market itself already taught enough people about the dangers of shit coins?

Like I say, I think regulation will help adoption, but I'm always weary of the government wanting to help me. The government says drugs are bad, so they outlaw them, and in the process create the biggest money laundering cartels and scores of violence. Thanks very much government.
 
Rams Fan said:
You should be following @virtusa

Spend some time reading his posts, then go back through the past two decades of ET looking for his past ET aliases and those posts.

You want to trade ES for living?

Follow virtusa.
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Oh yes, I do agree that I follow his market predictions and he often gets it right. But this fight he had with John is a different matter. Plus, John actually outlines specifically what he is doing whereas virtusa plays it safe with just predictions. Not saying there is no value, but the level of transparency in no way matches to what John shows.
 
NoahA said:
I do agree that I follow his market predictions
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I'm not talking about "predictions."

Follow him for what he knows and shares. In my opinion, I'd say for emini traders, @virtusa is in in the top 3 posters at ET since its inception. Don't fall in line with the 99.8% who don't understand him. Try to be one of the .2% who do.
 
Rams Fan said:
I'm not talking about "predictions."

Follow him for what he knows and shares. In my opinion, I'd say for emini traders, @virtusa is in in the top 3 posters at ET since its inception. Don't fall in line with the 99.8% who don't understand him. Try to be one of the .2% who do.
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I'm interested in his style.

Any idea where I could look for some insight?

Not to speak for him,but I think it would be fair to say he is a bit jaded at the moment-ET wise I mean.
 
Rams Fan said:
I'm not talking about "predictions."

Follow him for what he knows and shares. In my opinion, I'd say for emini traders, @virtusa is in in the top 3 posters at ET since its inception. Don't fall in line with the 99.8% who don't understand him. Try to be one of the .2% who do.
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Perhaps you will need to be more specific. I like his market commentary and similar posts, but I'm not sure about what he has said that has been truly actionable. I was digging into his posts to look for an example and came across this.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/s-p-500-going-to-4100-again.371789/#post-5735875

He relies on his system, which is clearly working for him, but there isn't much here to learn from in terms of specifics. His system seems to do all the work at this point. Which is an excellent place to be in after 20 years to have coded it all up, but it means that there are no specific nuggets there.
 
NoahA said:
Perhaps you will need to be more specific.
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NoahA said:
but there isn't much here to learn from in terms of specifics ... there are no specific nuggets there.
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They're there. You are looking for fool's gold and find none, while missing the real gold. I can't, or I guess won't be more specific. You either see it or you don't. When you are ready, you can't miss it.

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