Baron's Crypto Trading Journal

  • Bitcoin and crypto assets are on the blockchain
  • Local wallets are software and/or hardware to manage and store private keys for the above
Scenarios to consider:
  1. What would happen if there was a fire in the middle of the night and you and your family were able to get out in your pajamas and nothing else?
  2. What if a local disaster such as earthquake or a flood caused by a dam that broke (New Orleans) and similar predicament as above?
Do you have a backup that has geographic contingencies?

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1593094429501685761
 
I have a couple questions about using something like Exodus, as it looks interesting.

Is Exodus server dependent?

I read that details are stored on device and exodus is just a tool, but...

Can one access his/her private keys if the app go offline, gets shut down or else?
 
Baron said:
What are you talking about? The media has been covering inflation and currency devaluation every day for a year now. In my area, the dollar has lost a staggering amount of purchasing power compared to last year. My house was $2.3 million a year or two ago but now you'd need $3.7 million to buy the exact same house today. That's over a 50% collapse in USD buying power.
More...

You are just adapting the narrative to get inline with your conclusion.
  1. The argument to buy crypto’s is that there is no inflation. But you don’t use inflation in your arguments. You use just real estate, while inflation covers ALL costs of living. That’s not correct. Inflation is not 50% in 2 years. I can take any product that creates inflation and show just the opposite of what you try to sell. I only have to take a product that decreased in price. It will confirm that fiat currencies are strong and that crypto’s are weak.
  2. The long term price evolution of real estate is far from your 50% in 2 years. Watch the link for Zillow and you will see that prices are up 59% in the last 5 years. So reality is even more than 50% lower then what you tell. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/102001/united-states/
  3. If prices would go up 50% every 2 year, you will not be able to buy your own house anymore in a very short time.
  4. You comment on the fact that I use just a small period of the lifetime of crypto’s (68K) but you do exactly the same. I took 1 year, you took 2 years only.
Let’s take the 2.3 million you speak about:
  1. If you would have bought for 2.3 million $ crypto’s the last year, you would now have $731.047 left. That’s the reality based on your real executed orders. So you would miss $2.968.953 to buy your own house again today.
  2. If you would have kept dollars instead of crypto’s, you would have today $2.300.000. So you would miss $1.400.000 to buy your house today.
  3. So what you did was more than doubling the loss of “inflation”.
  4. Even if you would have bought crypto’s the last 2 years every month for the same amount to save $2.300.000 in 104 weeks, you would miss $2.684.470 to buy your house today.
You migth also read this article.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevef...-much-more-affordable-over-the-last-40-years/
It explains the complexity that is involved in calculating the real results. Seen the simplicity of your example and logic it will maybe be to difficult for you. Or you might also be too biased.
 
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Baron said:
Your inability to look at crypto from any timeframe other than the $68k top until now is staggering. I wonder why you do that and always ignore the 10 years of bitcoin trading activity up until the $68k.
More...

Only people who can proof they made money in these 10 years can use that argument. For you and all the others it is a hindsight argument. Hindsight is useless as it can never lead to making money. 99% of all ET members who ever traded crypto's, never bought 10 years ago.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
That is always mentioned on every disclosure document that is presented to potential investors. There is a reason why they do that.
You can find many investments where past performance was phenomenal and actual results where catastrophic.
Crypto's are no exception to that rule.
 
virtusa said:
You are just adapting the narrative to get inline with your conclusion.
  1. The argument to buy crypto’s is that there is no inflation. But you don’t use inflation in your arguments. You use just real estate, while inflation covers ALL costs of living. That’s not correct. Inflation is not 50% in 2 years. I can take any product that creates inflation and show just the opposite of what you try to sell. I only have to take a product that decreased in price. It will confirm that fiat currencies are strong and that crypto’s are weak.
  2. The long term price evolution of real estate is far from your 50% in 2 years. Watch the link for Zillow and you will see that prices are up 59% in the last 5 years. So reality is even more than 50% lower then what you tell. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/102001/united-states/
  3. If prices would go up 50% every 2 year, you will not be able to buy your own house anymore in a very short time.
  4. You comment on the fact that I use just a small period of the lifetime of crypto’s (68K) but you do exactly the same. I took 1 year, you took 2 years only.
Let’s take the 2.3 million you speak about:
  1. If you would have bought for 2.3 million $ crypto’s the last year, you would now have $731.047 left. That’s the reality based on your real executed orders. So you would miss $2.968.953 to buy your own house again today.
  2. If you would have kept dollars instead of crypto’s, you would have today $2.300.000. So you would miss $1.400.000 to buy your house today.
  3. So what you did was more than doubling the loss of “inflation”.
  4. Even if you would have bought crypto’s the last 2 years every month for the same amount to save $2.300.000 in 104 weeks, you would miss $2.684.470 to buy your house today.
More...
You're just being excessively argumentative and twisting around what I'm saying. In fact, you're even arguing with me about the price increase of my own house over time, as if you know the real estate market in my own city and neighborhood better than I do. I mean, common. Now you're just arguing for the sake of arguing I guess.
 
virtusa said:
Only people who can proof they made money in these 10 years can use that argument.
More...
And that's coming from the guy who's never posted a single trade on this site or proved anything whatsoever.

virtusa said:
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
That is always mentioned on every disclosure document that is presented to potential investors. There is a reason why they do that.
You can find many investments where past performance was phenomenal and actual results where catastrophic.
Crypto's are no exception to that rule.
More...

I never said that past performance is a guarantee of future results. Markets go up and down and crypto is no exception. I've never said that the crypto market is immune to going down. Dealing with the downside is a part of trading just like participating in the upside is. WE ALL KNOW THIS so I'm not sure what your point is.
 
Baron said:
Just as a quick follow-up, I pulled the trigger on a Trezor Model T as my hardware wallet, which will serve as a failover in the event that other wallet devices like computers, mobile phones, etc. get lost, or stolen, or malfunction, etc.

More...
Was wondering what to do myself. I'm on Coinhako here in Singapore but feeling uncertain about it. Was considering an online wallet but my concern is the same. After all, a scam in one can be a scam in the other. So hardware is the next step and I was debating simple USB key that I have a few of (where did I put them...) or a specialty USB key like Trezor.
 
KCalhoun said:
Crypto burns ..... not a recommendation but if I were in crypto I'd sell if btc loses 19.5, with 21 re-entry... for upside I'd look for long over 24k with 3k trail stop.

Recent strength in btc related stocks like MARA slightly bullish, but big picture I think btc will see 15 before 40
More...

Btc 16.7
Contagion likely to tank this, not a reco but if I were still in I'd sell 15, buy if >19... I predict 14 or lower by years end.

Will short it/buy BITI if btc gets <15

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BITI
 
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