Baron's Crypto Trading Journal

volente_00 said:
Baron since you don’t have a stop or puke point do you have an exit strategy if bitcoin reverses course ? Or is this a hold til you die strategy ?
Do you also intend to cost average in more if price moves up or only on down moves ?
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As long as the Bitcoin network stays secure and is not compromised in any way, I don't see any reason to sell it unless of course some other opportunity comes along that is more compelling.

I plan to buy more if the price goes down and will buy more if the price goes up. In a perfect world, I'd love to be in a position to allocate more when capitulation happens than when things are relatively stable. It's easy to see that when looking in hindsight at a chart but it's tough to do in real-time because nobody has a crystal ball.
 
deaddog said:
How do you value something created out of thin air?
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For the sake of clarity, let's use Bitcoin as the standard when you say "crypto". So in terms of creating Bitcoin, define what you mean by "created out of thin air".
 
Baron said:
As long as the Bitcoin network stays secure and is not compromised in any way, I don't see any reason to sell it unless of course some other opportunity comes along that is more compelling.

I plan to buy more if the price goes down and will buy more if the price goes up. In a perfect world, I'd love to be in a position to allocate more when capitulation happens than when things are relatively stable. It's easy to see that when looking in hindsight at a chart but it's tough to do in real-time because nobody has a crystal ball.
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Naysayers---this is quintessential position building. Just ask Jim Rogers.
 
Baron said:
For the sake of clarity, let's use Bitcoin as the standard when you say "crypto". So in terms of creating Bitcoin, define what you mean by "created out of thin air".
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Some anonymous person decided to make a currency or store of value. A digital currency, made up of 1s and 0s. Then they relate it back to fiat and sell it to investors. The sales job is you have to buy this because the fiat currency you are using will soon be worthless.

Maybe because I spent time around the Vancouver stock market years ago and watched the same thing with mining stocks. Promote the hell out of a stock until the insiders all sold then watch it drop. And it wasn't all mining. They would pump and dump anything from cosmetics to supercomputers. I'll admit bitcoin has been around for a while, longer than most fads but I've seen them come and go.

But you're right. I'm old and resistant to change but somehow, someone created a whole lot of supposed value out of nothing. I'll probably have to change my thinking when consumer good are priced in bitcoin but until then I'll continue to trust my bank and get by with fiat.
 
deaddog said:
I'm old
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Baron past 50 too. So what is old? Above 75? I know people 30 years younger than me but with a behavior of a +75er. Mental age is not equal to physical age.

BTC had a lot of sales arguments but there is nothing left from them.
  • Faster transfers is negligible and useless for the millions of gamblers that bought BTC to get quick rich. they never make any payments abroad.
  • cheaper transfers is negligible too for most of the people, and sometimes BTC transfers are even more expensive.
  • blockchain is fake as blockchain existed already BEFORE BTC was created. Blockchain does not need BTC as it is already running in applications with fiat currencies. BTC needs blockchain.
 
deaddog said:
Some anonymous person decided to make a currency or store of value. A digital currency, made up of 1s and 0s. Then they relate it back to fiat and sell it to investors. The sales job is you have to buy this because the fiat currency you are using will soon be worthless.

Maybe because I spent time around the Vancouver stock market years ago and watched the same thing with mining stocks. Promote the hell out of a stock until the insiders all sold then watch it drop. And it wasn't all mining. They would pump and dump anything from cosmetics to supercomputers. I'll admit bitcoin has been around for a while, longer than most fads but I've seen them come and go.

But you're right. I'm old and resistant to change but somehow, someone created a whole lot of supposed value out of nothing. I'll probably have to change my thinking when consumer good are priced in bitcoin but until then I'll continue to trust my bank and get by with fiat.
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Your problem is you keep using terms like "out of thin air" and value "out of nothing". If Bitcoin could be created quickly by a couple of keyboard strokes or clicks of a mouse, then those terms you used would actually be true. So the reason why you don't understand how Bitcoin can have any value is that somehow along the way you've taken on the inaccurate belief that it takes no time and effort to create Bitcoins.

Your analogy about mining stocks is a good example of what I'm talking about. How much time and effort does it take to create shares for a company? Hardly any. After forming the entity, just decide how many shares you want to create and then sell a percentage of them to outside investors. If Bitcoins could be created as fast as company shares could be created, then your skepticism would make complete sense. Bitcoins would have no value just like the freshly minted shares of a brand new company have no value upon creation.

However, if you tried to create a single Bitcoin today using your personal computer running the Bitcoin mining software, you would discover that it would take years for your own computer to run 24/7 in order to create just one of them. Yes, I said YEARS, and you would be paying the monthly electrical bills for your computer to run all day and all night for each of those years along the way.
 
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Baron said:
However, if you tried to create a single Bitcoin today using your personal computer running the Bitcoin mining software, you would discover that it would take years for your computer to run 24/7 to create just one of them. Yes, I said YEARS.
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But in reality aren't bitcoins are a reward for guessing the solution to a problem. A contest to see who gets to validate the next transaction?
I'll admit I don't have a clue about how to mine one but I know mining stocks. :)

Who is selling these whatever you call them? (Tokens. coins, digital assets). The miners?
Who is promoting them? I see all sorts of adds warning me of the opportunity I'm missing with slogans such as "fortune favours the brave". It's a pump if I ever saw one. Someone is trying to convince people to buy them. If they actually thought there was any value you'd think they would bring the price down so they could accumulate more.

Right now bitcoin is secure. As secure as blockchain can make it. But apparently it can be hacked or the blockchain altered but it takes more effort than it's worth. Who's to say a more advanced technology or bigger, better faster servers won't be developed that will solve that problem. When there is a reward someone will figure it out.

Fortune may favour the brave. And if it works out then the brave deserve the fortune. I hope the risk is worth the reward.
 
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