Baron's Crypto Trading Journal

Poljot said:
What worries me are increased correlations with the market.
It behaves nowadays like another NQ, unlike in the old days, so it's not offsetting the recent losses in the long portfolio.
It's not a safe haven as many are preaching.
Dollar, oil, metals.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/eur...n-throws-an-interest-rate-tantrum-2022-01-25/
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The thing with crypto though, the volatility makes for good trading.
Take gold as an example, it runs a bit then dies for years, at least with crypto being correlated, makes for easier trading than gold and more profitable due to larger swings.
 
Clark Bruno said:
Well nobody in the public domain has the slightest idea about top crypto holders. How is that for a start.
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Every single one of your arguments I have rebutted with facts. You seem to have grasped onto a belief system that has you convinced, or at least extremely fearful, of the possibility that the entire crypto system can collapse at any second from some anonymous big whale dumping a huge bag of Bitcoin on everybody. But yet, year after year, we're just not seeing that happening. So you need to ask yourself why is that the case?

The answer is obvious after you answer this question: Why in the world would anyone holding an asset that has a mean annual return of 94.4% want to sell it all for fiat currency that's collapsing in purchasing power 14% per year?

Nobody with a brain would do that which is why you haven't seen it happen or ever will.
 
You did not rebut a single of my arguments, instead you keep on putting words in my mouth I never used nor insinuate suggestions I never made. I never alluded to a large holder dumping coins to hurt his/her own interest. I talked about market manipulation that benefits the large holders at the cost of everyone else without the slightest chance of getting to know who those individuals are, what they are doing, absent any regulate alike a wild west market. A large holder can cause a large drop in value at an opportune time, let all the weak hands wash out and buy cheaper, and vice versa. That's called market manipulation textbook definition and that exact behavior put those in libor, metals, and stock fixing markets behind bars. In an anonymous crypto world all this is possible without the slightest repercussions. And if you truly believe that large drug cartels and North Korean hackers and many other folks of questionable character, who in aggregate do control a sizable amount of bitcoin, all passed your KYC (as you claimed in your previous post) then I simply think you are dead wrong on this.

Baron said:
Every single one of your arguments I have rebutted with facts. You seem to have grasped onto a belief system that has you convinced, or at least extremely fearful, of the possibility that the entire crypto system can collapse at any second from some anonymous big whale dumping a huge bag of Bitcoin on everybody. But yet, year after year, we're just not seeing that happening. So you need to ask yourself why is that the case?

The answer is obvious after you answer this question: Why in the world would anyone holding an asset that has a mean annual return of 94.4% want to sell it all for fiat currency that's collapsing in purchasing power 14% per year?

Nobody with a brain would do that which is why you haven't seen it happen or ever will.
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Clark Bruno said:
I never alluded to a large holder dumping coins... A large holder can cause a large drop in value at an opportune time, let all the weak hands wash out and buy cheaper, and vice versa.
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Read the quote above and then answer this question. How can a large holder cause a big drop in value if coins aren't being dumped by that holder in huge amounts?
 
... With the intent to buy cheaper and push up prices again, exactly how financial asset manipulators operate. If you don't believe me then the definition of manipulation of assets is clearly defined by the SEC and CFTC and many other regulators on their public websites. Fact is that only the small operators are highly regulated (last time I checked you are not allowed to trade foreign futures options as American citizen, because apparently we are not intelligent enough to risk manage our investments and because such derivatives are too dangerous for us) yet the big whales that do hold seizable amounts of cryptos and financed them through hacking and criminal activities outside the US jurisdiction can do as it pleases them in crypto space to the detriment of everyone else. How I can prove this or you disprove it? We cannot, because it's a completely opaque, unregulated marketplace. For that precise reason all major governments and Central banks are soon coming out with their digital currency equivalents that are centralized, fungible, regulated, and pegged.

Baron said:
Read the quote above and then answer this question. How can a large holder cause a big drop in value if coins aren't being dumped by that holder in huge amounts?
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Baron said:
That question is unanswerable. That's like asking who the counterparty is when you do a stock trade? Who the heck knows?
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OK then can you explain why the price is dropping?

Like the stock market, the bitcoin market is not there for the retail trader to make money. It's there for the people who control the market to make money. It seems to have the same 4 stages as the stock market. Accumulation, mark-up, distribution and mark-down. Someone is buying low and selling high. Someone has done a hell of a job promoting this product, convincing a lot of people that if they miss this opportunity they will be left behind. It's almost a classic get rich quick scheme. Fortune favours the brave!! Just buy bitcoin and wait till you retire and you'll be set for life. Almost sounds to good to be true.

You say nobody with a brain would trade bitcoin for fiat but someone obviously has which is causing the price to drop. More supply than demand. How is it that the price of something so valuable has been cut almost in half in a few months?
 
deaddog said:
OK then can you explain why the price is dropping?
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The price is dropping because recently there has been more capital leaving bitcoin than going into it. This doesn't mean the sellers are smart in doing that. Last year we saw the same thing happen. The china FUD came out and sellers dumped from a high of $63k all the way down to $30k. Three months later bitcoin was in the mid 60's again at an all-time high.
 
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